1622 Love Grass Ter · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$297,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · Land · 150 Days on market

Built 2026 4,501 sqft lot $177/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY! EXTENDED REDTAG SALE Receive up to $30,000 towards Flex Cash & closing costs, $5,000 towards upgrades and special interest rates with the use of our preferred lender - Now through Sunday, May 3rd. Legacy Preserve is D. R. Horton's newest community located off of North Rye Road, just north of Upper Manatee River Road. All of our homes feature all-concrete block construction on the first and second floors and D. R. Horton’s state-of-the-art Smart Home Automation system. Leacy Preserve's first amenity center is currently under construction and will contain a clubhouse, resort-style pool, playground, dog park, fitness center and open lawn space for sports and activiti

Key facts

• Dog park
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• SMART HOME AUTOMATION SYSTEM
• CLUBHOUSE
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• DOG PARK
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $1,608; Association fee listed as $532 quarterly
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with required approval; Monthly HOA: $177.33 (quarterly association fee also listed); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, and maintenance; Deed-restricted community; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x20) with garage door opener; Driveway parking
• Security: Fire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Facing southwest; Completed new-construction home; Projected completion date: March 20, 2026
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (model: CARRINGTON)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Hurricane shutters; Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Landscaped yard; Sidewalks; Paved surfaces

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Fire alarm, fire sprinkler system, and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet and separate laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $297k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William H. Bashaw Elementary (math 51% / reading 44%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 684 students, 69% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $261,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.92%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-39,278
• Equity at exit: $44,284

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-44,565
• Equity at exit: $25,679

Cash invested: $83,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,887 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,558
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,813/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$177
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,543

Max offer price $297,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $440	-5% $356	+0% $272	+5% $187	+10% $103
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $157	+0% $272	+5% $386	+10% $500
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $347	base $272	+0.5pp $195	+1.0pp $116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,250
• Closing costs: $8,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16823 Destrehen Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,490	$1.43	3d	1	0.39mi
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	24d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $177 · $2,124/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $297,000
3. 2026-04-15
   price $299,000
4. 2026-04-10
   price $304,000
5. 2026-04-03
   price $307,000
6. 2026-03-25
   price $299,000
7. 2026-03-18
   price $309,000
8. 2026-03-12
   price $312,000
9. 2026-03-05
   price $314,000
10. 2026-02-25
    price $317,000
11. 2026-02-20
    price $319,000
12. 2026-02-18
    price $324,000
13. 2026-02-10
    price $327,000
14. 2026-02-03
    price $329,000
15. 2026-01-27
    price $332,000
16. 2026-01-26
    price $334,990
17. 2026-01-20
    price $324,000
18. 2026-01-14
    price $334,990
19. 2025-12-05
    listed $344,990 Active
20. 2025-05-14
    soldstatus $2,324,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,813 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,465 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$652/yr (+$54/mo · 36.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,813
• − Insurance: −$1,485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,772
• − Management: −$2,772
• − HOA: −$2,124
• − Depreciation: −$8,640
• Taxable loss: −$1,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$383
• After-tax cash flow: $3,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-87.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $297,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $304,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $307,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $309,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $312,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $314,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $317,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $319,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $324,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $327,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $329,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $332,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $334,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $324,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $334,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listed $344,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $2,324,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+32211.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,813 · +32211.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.