1081 Arroyo Grande Dr · Moskowite Corner, CA 94558

$437,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · Land public records · 155 Days on market

Built 2015 10,302 sqft lot $310/sqft · 16% below area Est $524k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Livability +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Berryessa Highlands, home is situated on a secluded cul-de-sac. House is updated and move-in ready with features such as quartz countertops and fresh paint inside and out. This property has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths and downstairs has separate guest suite with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath with walk-in closet. With extra boat, RV parking and a large garage ,since lake is 5 minutes away makes it perfect for full time living or a weekend retreat.

Key facts

• Separate guest suite
• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SECLUDED CUL-DE-SAC
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SEPARATE GUEST SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EXTRA BOAT RV PARKING
• LAKE IS 5 MINUTES AWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $438k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-476 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $324k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Moskowite Corner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 37/100 on livability (#1,427 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 540 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($385k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $379k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,279 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.01%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $523,859
• List price: $437,500
• Delta: -16.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-110,641
• Equity at exit: $65,233

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-171,855
• Equity at exit: $37,827

Cash invested: $122,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94558

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 540
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,243 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,294
• Tax from tax record: −$495 /mo · $5,934/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$681
• Net cashflow: $-476

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,845

Max offer price $353,455

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-228	-5% $-352	+0% $-476	+5% $-600	+10% $-723
Rent	-10% $-732	-5% $-604	+0% $-476	+5% $-348	+10% $-220
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-364	base $-476	+0.5pp $-589	+1.0pp $-704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,375
• Closing costs: $13,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1077 Arroyo Grande Dr Napa, CA	3.0	2.0	1209	$2,800	$2.32	13d	1	0.05mi
1166 Rimrock Dr Napa, CA	3.0	2.0	1248	$3,000	$2.40	13d	1	0.32mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $437,500 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $437,500 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $437,500 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $437,500 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $437,500 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $437,500 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $437,500 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $437,500 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $437,500 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $437,500 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $437,500 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $437,500 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $437,500 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $437,500 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $437,500 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $437,500 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $437,500 Active 133 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    price $437,500 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Located in Berryessa Highlands, home is situated on a secluded cul-de-sac. House is updated and move-in ready with features such as quartz countertops and fresh paint inside and out. This property has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths and downstairs has separate guest suite with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath with walk-in closet. With extra boat, RV parking and a large garage ,since lake is 5 minutes away makes it perfect for full time living or a weekend retreat.

19. 2026-04-29
    price $442,000 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Located in Berryessa Highlands, home is situated on a secluded cul-de-sac. House is updated and move-in ready with features such as quartz countertops and fresh paint inside and out. This property has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths and downstairs has separate guest suite with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath with walk-in closet. With extra boat, RV parking and a large garage ,since lake is 5 minutes away makes it perfect for full time living or a weekend retreat.

20. 2026-03-28
    status Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Located in Berryessa Highlands, home is situated on a secluded cul-de-sac. House is updated and move-in ready with features such as quartz countertops and fresh paint inside and out. This property has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths and downstairs has separate guest suite with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath with walk-in closet. With extra boat, RV parking and a large garage ,since lake is 5 minutes away makes it perfect for full time living or a weekend retreat.

21. 2026-03-28
    price $485,000 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Located in Berryessa Highlands, home is situated on a secluded cul-de-sac. House is updated and move-in ready with features such as quartz countertops and fresh paint inside and out. This property has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths and downstairs has separate guest suite with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath with walk-in closet. With extra boat, RV parking and a large garage ,since lake is 5 minutes away makes it perfect for full time living or a weekend retreat.

22. 2026-03-03
    historical Contingent (Show) 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Located in Berryessa Highlands, home is situated on a secluded cul-de-sac. House is updated and move-in ready with features such as quartz countertops and fresh paint inside and out. This property has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths and downstairs has separate guest suite with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath with walk-in closet. With extra boat, RV parking and a large garage ,since lake is 5 minutes away makes it perfect for full time living or a weekend retreat.

23. 2026-01-17
    listed $449,000 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    Located in Berryessa Highlands, home is situated on a secluded cul-de-sac. House is updated and move-in ready with features such as quartz countertops and fresh paint inside and out. This property has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths and downstairs has separate guest suite with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath with walk-in closet. With extra boat, RV parking and a large garage ,since lake is 5 minutes away makes it perfect for full time living or a weekend retreat.

24. 2024-12-04
    price $510,000
25. 2024-08-06
    price $525,000
26. 2024-07-09
    price $550,000
27. 2024-05-16
    price $565,000
28. 2024-03-25
    listed $575,000 Active
29. 2019-03-04
    soldstatus $379,000 Sold
30. 2019-03-04
    soldstatus $379,000
31. 2019-02-17
    status Pending
32. 2019-01-17
    historical Contingent
33. 2019-01-11
    price $379,000
34. 2018-11-29
    listed $395,000 Active
35. 2016-07-13
    soldstatus $294,845 Sold
36. 2016-07-13
    soldstatus $295,000
37. 2016-07-06
    status Pending
38. 2016-06-07
    historical Contingent
39. 2016-06-03
    listed $299,950 Active
40. 2015-03-06
    soldstatus $50,000
41. 2015-01-27
    historical
42. 2015-01-22
    price
43. 2014-12-05
    listed New-REO

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,934 · $495/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,934 · $495/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 79% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,507
• − Property taxes: −$5,934
• − Insurance: −$2,985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,113
• − Management: −$3,113
• − Depreciation: −$12,727
• Taxable loss: −$13,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,232
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Moskowite Corner

• Score: 37/100
• State rank: #1427
• US rank: #27607

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,657
• Household income: $113,269
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 15% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -842.94%
• Current HPI: 296.0661
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+775.0% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $437,500 BAREIS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $442,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-28 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $485,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-03 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $449,000 BAREIS
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $510,000 BAREIS
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $525,000 BAREIS
• 2024-07-09 Price Changed $550,000 BAREIS
• 2024-05-16 Price Changed $565,000 BAREIS
• 2024-03-25 Listed $575,000 BAREIS
• 2019-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $379,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-04 Sold (MLS) $379,000 BAREIS
• 2019-02-17 Pending — BAREIS
• 2019-01-17 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2019-01-11 Price Changed $379,000 BAREIS
• 2018-11-29 Listed $395,000 BAREIS
• 2016-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-13 Sold (MLS) $294,845 BAREIS
• 2016-07-06 Pending — BAREIS
• 2016-06-07 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2016-06-03 Listed $299,950 BAREIS
• 2015-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-27 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2015-01-22 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-12-05 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,934 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.