4809 NW Williams Ave · Lawton, OK 73505

$45,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 419 Days on market

Built 1967 7,998 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

For more information or to work directly with listing company call Real Estate Experts LLC at 580 248 2600 or visit staceandreedy.com. This home is an investor special and is being sold AS-IS. It has 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 living areas and is approx. 1700 sq ft. The home has had updates to the windows in the last couple of years. This home will make a great flip or rental property. Call for your private showing.

Key facts

• 7,998 sq ft lot
• Built 1967
• Listed 419 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Brick veneer exterior
• Construction: Composition roof; Slab foundation; Brick veneer construction; Built as a single-family residence
• Exterior features: Enclosed covered deck/patio; Covered patio; Deck; Chain link and wood fencing; Shed(s) on property; City-maintained public road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $632 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 6.1% in Lawton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
• Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ridgecrest Es (math 27% / reading 17%, grade F, #413 of 845 statewide, top 54%, 453 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Ms (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #90 of 345 statewide, top 27%, 1,035 students, 0% FRL); Eisenhower Hs (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #215 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 1,350 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 398 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 419 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 419 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.20%
• DSCR: 3.68
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,260
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4825 NW Hoover Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	2mo	$180,000	$106	82
4636 NW Lincoln Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+9%)	3mo	$140,500	$78	75
1727 NW 49th St	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	5mo	$62,100	$39	75
2306 NW 41st St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	2mo	$139,900	$82	74
4601 NW Ridgecrest Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+9%)	3mo	$195,000	$108	68
2329 NW Dunstan Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	9mo	$180,000	$106	66
1529 NW 43rd St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+3%)	6mo	$115,000	$68	64
3909 NW Denver Ave	0.60mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	1mo	$165,000	$103	59
5421 NW King Richard Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+3%)	7mo	$242,500	$143	55
1620 NW 38th St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-3%)	3mo	$100,000	$63	54
1506 NW 47th St	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,408 (-15%)	11mo	$129,000	$92	48
2302 NW Ivanhoe Pl	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+15%)	9mo	$175,000	$92	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $35,755
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.53×
• Total profit: $94,923
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73505

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 398
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,190/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $448

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-27
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-03-20
   listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,190
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
• − Management: −$1,198
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,761
• After-tax cash flow: $5,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawton
• NCES district ID: 4017250
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,618
• Composite: 19.68/100
• National rank: #8732
• State rank: #137 of 270 in OK

Livability — Lawton

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #15131

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawton, OK
• County: Comanche County · 96,361 people
• City population: 89,233
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• Population (ZIP): 47,790
• Household income: $58,272
• Rent vs Own: 48.2% rent · 51.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1986.0

Population outlook (Comanche County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 124,518 people
• By 2030: 124,231 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 122,193 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 120,368 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 120,492 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 123,113 · -1.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 17% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 16% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comanche

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 37.4% · R 60.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -17.5pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.88%
• Current HPI: 169.4524
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.14%
• Metro: Lawton, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LBRMLS
• 2025-03-27 Contingent — LBRMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $45,000 LBRMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.