3933 Alwyn Cashe Ave #42 · Springfield, FL 32404

$304,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,845 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 5,500 sqft lot $165/sqft · 17% below area Est $366k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Walsh floorplan offers a total 4 bedrooms and 2 baths with a nice size covered patio, HUGE walk-in closet in Owner's Suite and large dining nook at a very spacious 1845 square feet. Features in the home include (but are not limited to) 2 car garage, beautiful open kitchen with upgraded quartz countertops, white shaker style cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. Owner's Bath includes large TILED walk-in shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. Large closets in secondary bedrooms as well. Please note this home is under construction. Floorplan layout and elevation rendering in photos section are for reference only. Actual colors, finishes, options, and layout may vary.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DINING NOOK
• OPEN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-354 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,932 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,959
• List price: $304,990
• Delta: -15.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3912 Alwyn Cashe Ave #66	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,891 (+2%)	2mo	$279,990	$148	86
3812 Wall Street St Unit HS 97	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+2%)	2mo	$288,290	$152	84
3940 Alwyn Cashe Ave #73	0.03mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+8%)	2mo	$304,990	$152	83
3928 Alwyn Cashe Ave #70	0.05mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+8%)	1mo	$289,990	$145	83
3961 Alwyn Cashe Ave #49	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (-6%)	0mo	$306,490	$176	83
3908 Alwyn Cashe Ave #65	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,744 (-6%)	2mo	$259,990	$149	80
3665 Cedar Park Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,751 (-5%)	1mo	$369,000	$211	77
3828 Wall Street St Unit HS 93	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,569 (-15%)	2mo	$266,990	$170	62
3869 Sandpine Way	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,813 (-2%)	1mo	$358,000	$197	59
3103 Justine Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,962 (+6%)	1mo	$449,900	$229	59
3950 Red Deer Cir	0.73mi	4/2.5	1,650 (-11%)	0mo	$329,900	$200	46
3946 Red Deer Cir	0.73mi	4/2.5	1,650 (-11%)	1mo	$329,900	$200	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-76,084
• Equity at exit: $45,475

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-111,470
• Equity at exit: $26,370

Cash invested: $85,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,219 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,668

Max offer price $253,700

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-144	-5% $-249	+0% $-354	+5% $-460	+10% $-565
Rent	-10% $-530	-5% $-442	+0% $-354	+5% $-267	+10% $-179
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-277	base $-354	+0.5pp $-433	+1.0pp $-514

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,248
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3884 Red Deer Cir Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1972	$2,200	$1.12	22d	1	0.75mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	22d	1	0.81mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	14d	1	1.04mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	22d	1	1.05mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	22d	1	1.12mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	14d	1	1.17mi
3545 Brentwood Pl Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,200	$1.36	22d	1	1.42mi
4031 Oak Forest Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,100	$1.28	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $304,990 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $309,990 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,990 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,990 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,990 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,990 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $309,990 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,990 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,990 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $309,990 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $309,990 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $309,990 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $319,490 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,490 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,490 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,490 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,490 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $319,490 Active 55 DOM
19. 2026-05-15
    price $319,490 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    The Walsh floorplan offers a total 4 bedrooms and 2 baths with a nice size covered patio, HUGE walk-in closet in Owner's Suite and large dining nook at a very spacious 1845 square feet. Features in the home include (but are not limited to) 2 car garage, beautiful open kitchen with upgraded quartz countertops, white shaker style cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. Owner's Bath includes large TILED walk-in shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. Large closets in secondary bedrooms as well. Please note this home is under construction. Floorplan layout and elevation rendering in photos section are for reference only. Actual colors, finishes, options, and layout may vary.

20. 2026-05-03
    price $320,490 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    The Walsh floorplan offers a total 4 bedrooms and 2 baths with a nice size covered patio, HUGE walk-in closet in Owner's Suite and large dining nook at a very spacious 1845 square feet. Features in the home include (but are not limited to) 2 car garage, beautiful open kitchen with upgraded quartz countertops, white shaker style cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. Owner's Bath includes large TILED walk-in shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. Large closets in secondary bedrooms as well. Please note this home is under construction. Floorplan layout and elevation rendering in photos section are for reference only. Actual colors, finishes, options, and layout may vary.

21. 2026-04-05
    listed $315,490 Active 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    The Walsh floorplan offers a total 4 bedrooms and 2 baths with a nice size covered patio, HUGE walk-in closet in Owner's Suite and large dining nook at a very spacious 1845 square feet. Features in the home include (but are not limited to) 2 car garage, beautiful open kitchen with upgraded quartz countertops, white shaker style cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. Owner's Bath includes large TILED walk-in shower, double vanity and large walk-in closet. Large closets in secondary bedrooms as well. Please note this home is under construction. Floorplan layout and elevation rendering in photos section are for reference only. Actual colors, finishes, options, and layout may vary.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,084
• − Property taxes: −$4,575
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$8,872
• Taxable loss: −$9,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,325
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is under construction and is in excellent condition. It is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and tenant satisfaction.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and tenant satisfaction. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $319,490 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $320,490 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $315,490 CPARMLS