10511 Sagepine Ln · Houston, TX 77089

$154,300

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1971 7,474 sqft lot $83/sqft · 41% below area Est $262k · 41% under $4/mo HOA ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

Key facts

• 7,474 sq ft lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 79 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,042 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.19%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,270
• List price: $154,300
• Delta: -41.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10511 Sagepine Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,848 (0%)	1mo	$154,300	$83	100
11211 Sage Oak Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,886 (+2%)	2mo	$140,000	$74	71
11214 Sagehaven Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+6%)	2mo	$287,000	$147	63
11611 Sagehollow Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,040 (+10%)	1mo	$285,000	$140	63
10819 Sageriver Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,780 (-4%)	1mo	$239,000	$134	62
10302 Kirkdale Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (-6%)	8mo	$244,900	$141	62
10511 Kirklane Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,698 (-8%)	4mo	$289,999	$171	57
11026 Sageview Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (+3%)	4mo	$179,900	$94	54
11111 Sagecrest Ln	0.56mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,709 (-8%)	2mo	$288,499	$169	50
11307 Camphorwood Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,813 (-2%)	8mo	$255,000	$141	50
11423 Gnarlwood Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (-9%)	7mo	$265,000	$157	40
11123 Sageview Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-12%)	6mo	$245,000	$150	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,804
• Equity at exit: $23,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $39,340
• Equity at exit: $13,341

Cash invested: $43,204 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77089

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$809
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,302/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,564

Max offer price $154,300

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $490	-5% $447	+0% $403	+5% $359	+10% $316
Rent	-10% $239	-5% $321	+0% $403	+5% $485	+10% $567
Rate	-1.0pp $481	-0.5pp $442	base $403	+0.5pp $363	+1.0pp $322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,575
• Closing costs: $4,629
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11666 Gulf Pointe Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$2,101	$1.86	1d	31	0.20mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,992	$1.46	19d	1	0.33mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,032	$1.49	3d	1	0.37mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 11914 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,035	$1.49	44d	1	0.37mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,064	$1.51	10d	1	0.37mi
11419 Sagegrove Ln Unit 1066581P Houston, TX	5.0	2.0	1948	$10,774	$5.53	22d	1	0.53mi
11419 Sagegrove Ln Houston, TX	5.0	2.0	1959	$8,950	$4.57	22d	1	0.53mi
11203 Sagehill Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,900	$1.08	5d	1	0.78mi
11438 Brook Meadow Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,895	$1.31	22d	1	0.82mi
11511 Grapewood Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,800	$1.13	3d	1	0.84mi
10819 Sagewind Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1514	$1,966	$1.30	5d	1	0.92mi
11023 Sagewillow Ln Houston, TX	5.0	2.0	2242	$2,300	$1.03	19d	1	1.01mi
10418 Sagemeadow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1429	$1,950	$1.36	44d	1	1.17mi
12516 S Green Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,600	$1.24	44d	1	1.23mi
10123 Clearwick St Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,650	$1.31	44d	1	1.30mi
9122 Southbluff Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,000	$1.05	44d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

2. 2026-05-18
   status Active 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

3. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

4. 2026-04-30
   price $154,300 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

5. 2026-04-16
   price $159,000 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

6. 2026-04-07
   status Active 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

7. 2026-03-09
   status Pending 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

8. 2026-02-11
   price $164,500 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

9. 2026-01-29
   status Active 280-char remark

   Show marketing remark (280 chars)

   HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

10. 2025-12-17
    status Pending 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

11. 2025-12-12
    listed $175,000 Active 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    HOME SOLD AS-IS. An investor opportunity to fix up this house the way you want it. This house will need a full rehab including but not limited to a new roof, electrical, plumbing, drywall and signs of termite damage. Please connect with your agent to access the seller disclosure.

12. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,302 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,302 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,643
• − Property taxes: −$4,302
• − Insurance: −$772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$4,489
• Taxable income: $2,658
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$638
• After-tax cash flow: $4,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,741
• Household income: $88,140
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 22% White 19% Asian 17% Black 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 33% Vietnamese 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.31%
• Current HPI: 249.5438
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $154,300 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $164,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,302 · -8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.