2151 Oakland Rd #22 · San Jose, CA 95131

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 128 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1972 Good condition $186/sqft · 12% below area Est $284k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +8.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.6

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home located in the desirable all-ages community of Casa Del Lago. Built in 1972 and approximately 1,344 sq. ft. , this home was fully remodeled in 2017 with sheetrock walls, updated kitchen, modern light fixtures, updated flooring, and remodeled bathrooms. The spacious living and dining area provides plenty of room for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Exterior was freshly painted in 2025, giving the home a clean and well-maintained appearance. Casa Del Lago is a pet-friendly park featuring a clubhouse, swimming pool, and playground. Conveniently located near shopping centers, Great Mall, Milpitas BART Station, and major highways 680, 880, and 101. Move-in ready and centrally located.

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Updated kitchen
• Updated flooring

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• MODERN LIGHT FIXTURES
• UPDATED FLOORING
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $868 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Orchard Elementary (urban): math 51% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #225 of 1,400 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Elementary (763 students, 44% FRL); Evergreen Valley High (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A-, #45 of 1,170 statewide, top 4%, 2,767 students, 13% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 56% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Orchard Elementary average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 57 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.87%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,513
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -11.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2151 Oakland Rd #298	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	0mo	$280,000	$208	93
2151 Oakland Rd #443	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	4mo	$229,900	$171	84
2151 Oakland Rd #189	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$320,000	$222	82
2151 Oakland Rd #14	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$291,500	$202	81
2151 Oakland Rd #595	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+5%)	6mo	$220,000	$156	80
2151 Oakland Rd #466	0.01mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	0mo	$233,000	$162	79
2151 Oakland Rd #135	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$310,000	$215	79
2151 Oakland #229	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$344,000	$239	74
2151 Oakland Rd #210	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+13%)	8mo	$235,000	$155	72
2151 Oakland Rd #552	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+10%)	5mo	$310,000	$209	71
2151 Oakland Rd #231	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	10mo	$260,000	$181	65
2151 Oakland Rd Space #46	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	6mo	$315,000	$205	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $20,407
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $112,950
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Jose: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+24

Apartment Rent Ordinance covers pre-1979 multifamily.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.3 mo (30%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $309,900 ($200/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 95131

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$690
• Net cashflow: $868

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,040	-5% $954	+0% $868	+5% $781	+10% $695
Rent	-10% $608	-5% $738	+0% $868	+5% $997	+10% $1,127
Rate	-1.0pp $993	-0.5pp $931	base $868	+0.5pp $803	+1.0pp $737

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1327 Westbury Dr San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1376	$4,000	$2.91	9d	1	0.01mi
1271 Westbury Dr San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1376	$3,900	$2.83	20d	1	0.05mi
1141 Rock Ave San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1376	$4,095	$2.98	27d	1	0.16mi
1799 Snell Pl Milpitas, CA	3.0	3.0	1450	$4,450	$3.07	66d	1	0.62mi
69 Ede Ln Milpitas, CA	3.0	3.0	1253	$4,128	$3.29	56d	1	0.69mi
1067 McKay Dr San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	1657	$4,700	$2.84	9d	1	0.71mi
363 Odyssey Ln Milpitas, CA	3.0	4.0	1651	$4,600	$2.79	20d	1	0.71mi
1694 Starlite Dr Milpitas, CA	4.0	2.5	1726	$4,600	$2.67	46d	1	0.74mi
2031 Trento Loop Milpitas, CA	3.0	3.0	1709	$4,400	$2.57	56d	1	0.77mi
1753 Capulet Dr Milpitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$4,000	$3.64	65d	1	0.81mi
1573 Capulet Dr Milpitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,750	$3.41	71d	1	0.81mi
23 Cedar Way Milpitas, CA	4.0	2.0	1527	$4,620	$3.03	56d	1	0.86mi
379 Lundy Pl Milpitas, CA	3.0	3.0	1618	$4,445	$2.75	56d	1	0.87mi
56 Lonetree Ct Milpitas, CA	4.0	2.5	1824	$5,000	$2.74	68d	1	0.88mi
1677 Centre Pointe Dr Milpitas, CA	3.0	3.0	1687	$4,600	$2.73	73d	1	0.94mi
1331 Lakeshore Cir San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1017	$4,807	$4.72	9d	21	0.96mi
1600 Whitewood Dr San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1137	$4,802	$4.22	9d	17	0.97mi
460 Montague Expy #40 Milpitas, CA	3.0	2.5	1833	$4,750	$2.59	46d	1	0.98mi
460 Montague Expy #40 Milpitas, CA	3.0	2.5	1833	$4,750	$2.59	51d	1	0.98mi
1625 Delano St Unit 31A Milpitas, CA	3.0	2.5	1458	$4,295	$2.95	47d	1	0.99mi
312 Gates Dr Milpitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$4,348	$4.85	9d	16	0.99mi
600 Epic Way San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	814	$4,079	$5.01	9d	27	0.99mi
650 E Capitol Ave Milpitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$4,272	$4.76	2d	14	1.04mi
273 Baja Rose St Milpitas, CA	3.0	2.0	1569	$4,700	$3.00	73d	1	1.04mi
1821 S Milpitas Blvd Milpitas, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$4,551	$5.87	2d	12	1.06mi
1087 Bigleaf Pl #1526 San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	1850	$5,590	$3.02	9d	1	1.12mi
2100 Beech Cir San Jose, CA	3.0	3.5	1812	$4,350	$2.40	59d	1	1.13mi
425 Navaro Way #120 San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1088	$3,750	$3.45	93d	1	1.13mi
2189 Beech Cir Unit 1 San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	1536	$4,595	$2.99	9d	1	1.14mi
430 Navaro Pl #220 San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1254	$3,400	$2.71	35d	1	1.16mi
450 Navaro Way #120 San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1088	$3,800	$3.49	13d	1	1.16mi
2365 Fallingtree Dr San Jose, CA	4.0	2.0	1234	$4,315	$3.50	61d	1	1.17mi
440 Navaro Pl San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1254	$3,924	$3.13	73d	1	1.18mi
1261 Formosa Dr Unit 1261 San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1666	$4,800	$2.88	31d	1	1.23mi
345 Village Center Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$8,000	$9.12	9d	17	1.23mi
415 Camille Cir San Jose, CA	2.0	2.5	1561	$4,009	$2.57	61d	1	1.24mi
1102 S Abel St Milpitas, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$3,919	$4.81	2d	16	1.25mi
1895 N Capitol Ave San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	658	$3,750	$5.70	9d	1	1.28mi
373 River Oaks Cir San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$4,427	$4.92	9d	10	1.30mi
1953 Via Reggio Ct San Jose, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	956	$2,900	$3.03	13d	2	1.32mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-07-01
   days on marketlisting id $250,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-30
   days on market $250,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-29
   days on market $250,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $250,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $250,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-26
   days on market $250,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-25
   days on market $250,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-22
   days on market $250,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-17
    days on market $250,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-16
    days on market $250,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-15
    days on market $250,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-06-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-06-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-06-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 105 DOM
18. 2026-06-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 104 DOM
19. 2026-06-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 101 DOM
20. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 100 DOM
21. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 99 DOM
22. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 98 DOM
23. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 97 DOM
24. 2026-02-24
    listed $250,000 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home located in the desirable all-ages community of Casa Del Lago. Built in 1972 and approximately 1,344 sq. ft. , this home was fully remodeled in 2017 with sheetrock walls, updated kitchen, modern light fixtures, updated flooring, and remodeled bathrooms. The spacious living and dining area provides plenty of room for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Exterior was freshly painted in 2025, giving the home a clean and well-maintained appearance. Casa Del Lago is a pet-friendly park featuring a clubhouse, swimming pool, and playground. Conveniently located near shopping centers, Great Mall, Milpitas BART Station, and major highways 680, 880, and 101. Move-in ready and centrally located.

25. 2026-02-24
    listed $250,000 Active 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home located in the desirable all-ages community of Casa Del Lago. Built in 1972 and approximately 1,344 sq. ft. , this home was fully remodeled in 2017 with sheetrock walls, updated kitchen, modern light fixtures, updated flooring, and remodeled bathrooms. The spacious living and dining area provides plenty of room for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Exterior was freshly painted in 2025, giving the home a clean and well-maintained appearance. Casa Del Lago is a pet-friendly park featuring a clubhouse, swimming pool, and playground. Conveniently located near shopping centers, Great Mall, Milpitas BART Station, and major highways 680, 880, and 101. Move-in ready and centrally located.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,154
• − Management: −$3,154
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $6,838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,641
• After-tax cash flow: $8,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,720–$20,160 screening

This remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home in Casa Del Lago is in good condition with no major repairs needed. Freshly painted exterior and updated flooring would further enhance its value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $10,000–$30,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — roof appears to be metal and weathered, indicating potential structural issues and high repair costs.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Freshly painted exterior enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — Replacing worn-out hardwood flooring with a more modern or durable option can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

B Composite school gradezoned avg 80/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Orchard Elementary High Evergreen Valley High A- CA #45/1,170 Nat'l #1,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orchard Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628680
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $108,165
• Composite: 54.67/100
• National rank: #2853
• State rank: #225 of 1400 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — San Jose

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #2559

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jose, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 2,179,074 people
• City population: 954,479
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,179
• Household income: $170,255
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Asian (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% White 10% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 57% · China, Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 31% English-only · Chinese 28% Vietnamese 11% Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1287.10%
• Current HPI: 314.6879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.67%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $250,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $250,000 MLSListings