125 Paulette Way · Antioch, CA 94509

$97,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $81/sqft · 52% above area ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE REDUCED!! Shows like a model! * SENIOR 55+ Well maintained GATED Mobile Home Park * 1200 sq ft, 2 bed 2 bath! * Relax in your very own private fenced "secret garden" with large canopy for shade * Light and airy open floor plan with oversized living room & dining room * , Spacious Kitchen has ample counter top * Deck off the living room, storage shed * Alll appliances are included, * Laundry room with storage * * Updated clubhouse with pool tables, tennis table, swimming pool, spa. exercise room * FAST CLOSE AND OCCUPANCY. SHOWN BY APPOINTMENT ONLY !Must be Park approved and income must be 3 X the amount of the rent

Key facts

• Updated clubhouse
• Exercise room
• Swimming pool

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCED GARDEN
• GATED MOBILE HOME PARK
• UPDATED CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• EXERCISE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Park name: VISTA DIABLO ESTATES; Community clubhouse; Gated community with guest parking; Community spa; Gas metered; Pets allowed (cats and dogs allowed with limits and approval); Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage spaces; Carport with 2 covered spaces; Side yard access
• Security: Gated community; Park interview required
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected with individual gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide (dual wide) model; Single-story (street-level living); Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Back yard; Level lot; Community fenced pool/spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Solid-surface counters; Gas range/cooktop; Built-in oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bath has solid-surface surfaces, stall shower, updated finishes and a window; Other bath includes shower-over-tub, solid-surface surfaces and a window
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Solid-surface counters; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mission Elementary (479 students, 74% FRL); Park Middle (996 students, 85% FRL); Antioch High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,960 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 57% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,090 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.62%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,006
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: 51.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86 Diana Way	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	11mo	$71,500	$62	80
147 Paulette Way	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	9mo	$59,000	$51	80
34 Mark Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	8mo	$65,000	$56	79
56 Creekside Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	12mo	$47,500	$38	78
3301 Buchanan Rd #75	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,211 (+1%)	17mo	$115,000	$95	72
144 Paulette Way #144	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	21mo	$100,000	$80	71
26 Bradley Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	8mo	$88,000	$68	68
3301 Buchanan Rd #11	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,084 (-10%)	6mo	$135,000	$125	66
66 Mark Ln #66	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-10%)	22mo	$55,000	$51	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $51,565
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $120,241
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,270 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$121 /mo · $1,455/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $1,123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $849

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,190	-5% $1,157	+0% $1,123	+5% $1,090	+10% $1,056
Rent	-10% $944	-5% $1,033	+0% $1,123	+5% $1,213	+10% $1,302
Rate	-1.0pp $1,172	-0.5pp $1,148	base $1,123	+0.5pp $1,098	+1.0pp $1,072

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$2,023	$2.52	0d	1	0.15mi
2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	715	$1,962	$2.74	23d	1	0.15mi
3101 Buchanan Rd Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,295	$2.74	0d	4	0.19mi
2800 Gentrytown Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,845	$2.54	3d	9	0.21mi
2433 Sequoia Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1058	$2,795	$2.64	45d	1	0.26mi
3417 Fairview Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,710	$2.14	0d	2	0.30mi
3521 Fairview Dr Apt B Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	827	$2,000	$2.42	45d	1	0.40mi
3601 Fairview Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,693	$2.12	14d	1	0.42mi
2500 Florida Ln Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	45d	1	0.60mi
2608 Nevada Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,450	$2.32	45d	1	0.62mi
2005 San Jose Dr Unit F130 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,795	$2.16	6d	1	0.68mi
2005 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	806	$2,054	$2.55	0d	2	0.73mi
2005 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,850	$2.23	46d	1	0.74mi
1902 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,100	$2.69	45d	1	0.77mi
2400 Horizon Ln #140 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	845	$1,850	$2.19	45d	1	0.82mi
1312 Mission Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,975	$2.07	6d	1	0.82mi
2415 Horizon Ln #129 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,800	$2.97	45d	1	0.85mi
2301 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$2,180	$3.04	0d	23	0.87mi
2725 Entrada Cir Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,000	$1.54	19d	1	0.89mi
2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,922	$1.89	0d	10	0.91mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	777	$1,917	$2.47	3d	12	1.02mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	755	$1,815	$2.40	11d	1	1.02mi
2221 Dogwood Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,995	$2.60	45d	1	1.04mi
2112 Banyan Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,900	$2.51	45d	1	1.11mi
1608 Sycamore Dr Apt 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	6d	1	1.13mi
2308 Lemontree Way #4 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,695	$1.83	45d	1	1.17mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 18 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,800	$2.71	45d	1	1.19mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1035	$2,500	$2.42	45d	1	1.19mi
1508 Crestview Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1197	$2,949	$2.46	45d	1	1.20mi
2104 Lemontree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	822	$1,695	$2.06	45d	1	1.25mi
2205 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$1,695	$1.88	16d	1	1.27mi
1209 Tulip Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,995	$2.23	45d	1	1.28mi
2106 Peppertree Way #3 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	45d	1	1.28mi
2106 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	6d	1	1.28mi
2191 Lakeview Cir Pittsburg, CA	2.0	2.0	783	$2,500	$3.19	18d	1	1.32mi
1600 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,564	$3.06	0d	8	1.34mi
1461 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	45d	1	1.35mi
1461 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	25d	1	1.35mi
2205 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,294	$2.71	0d	18	1.39mi
3724 Gladstone Dr Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1356	$3,195	$2.36	0d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 645-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $97,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-10
    listed $99,000 Active 618-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$1,455
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,179
• − Management: −$2,179
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $12,688
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,045
• After-tax cash flow: $10,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 29 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a private garden and canopy for shade. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. However, there are opportunities for cosmetic upgrades to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Replace the patio cover — A new patio cover can provide better shade and protect the outdoor area from the elements.
• Both Upgrade the flooring in the living areas — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home, making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Install new windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value by making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrade the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the home, making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value by making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Replace the patio cover — A new patio cover can provide better shade and protect the outdoor area from the elements. ↑
• Both Upgrade the flooring in the living areas — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home, making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install new windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value by making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrade the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the home, making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value by making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $97,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-10 Listed $99,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR