364 Rivers Ridge Cir · Newport News, VA 23608

$165,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · Condo public records · 249 Days on market

Built 1988 $127/sqft · 19% below area Est $203k · 19% under $160/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story condo style home is located in Lees Mills community near Fort Eustis, interstate, shopping, schools, dining and Williamsburg. Home is being sold as is, no repairs by owner and presents an excellent opportunity for cash or renovation loan buyers. The home has two bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms. All this home will need is some tender loving care. The owner has factored in painting and carpet replacement in the listing price. Washer, dryer and refrigerator convey to new owner. Don't miss out on an opportunity to purchase this home.

Key facts

• $160 HOA
• Parking
• Built 1988

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 215 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.9% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $165k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.82%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,560
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -18.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-9,898
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $36,640
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23608

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 215
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,364/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,634

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $194	+0% $147	+5% $100	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $75	+0% $147	+5% $219	+10% $291
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $189	base $147	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
372 Rivers Ridge Cir Newport News, VA	2.0	2.5	1296	$1,650	$1.27	44d	1	0.02mi
436 Lee's Ml Dr #436 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,750	$1.56	8d	1	0.13mi
100 Banbury Ct Unit 00 201302 Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1222	$1,799	$1.47	44d	1	0.25mi
100 Banbury Ct Unit 00 103308 Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1222	$1,799	$1.47	5d	1	0.25mi
100 Banbury Ct Unit 00 202207 Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1222	$1,909	$1.56	8d	1	0.25mi
23 Williamson Park Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,990	$1.54	45d	1	0.27mi
203 Quarter Trl Unit F Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1167	$1,375	$1.18	44d	1	0.36mi
329 Boulder Dr Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,482	$1.54	3d	13	0.48mi
215 Old Bridge Ct Newport News, VA	4.0	2.0	1441	$2,100	$1.46	21d	1	0.52mi
181 Lees Mill Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,499	$1.75	44d	1	0.54mi
461 Revolution Ln Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,000	$1.34	8d	1	0.71mi
399 Hickory Point Blvd Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	984	$1,594	$1.62	2d	10	0.77mi
91 River Palms Rd Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	871	$2,179	$2.50	2d	49	0.85mi
55 Rexford Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,000	$1.40	44d	1	0.95mi
3900 Woodbridge Dr Unit 00 2006 Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1121	$1,499	$1.34	17d	1	0.98mi
3900 Woodbridge Dr Unit 00 2106 Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1121	$1,499	$1.34	21d	1	0.98mi
3900 Woodbridge Dr Unit 00 1604 Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1121	$1,499	$1.34	24d	1	0.98mi
3900 Woodbridge Dr Unit 00 1402 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,649	$1.44	18d	1	0.98mi
3900 Woodbridge Dr Unit 00 1808 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.5	1235	$1,599	$1.29	24d	1	0.98mi
573 Old Colonial Way Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1580	$1,985	$1.26	44d	1	0.99mi
800 Skelton Way Newport News, VA	3.0	2.5	1710	$2,195	$1.28	44d	1	1.06mi
106 Woodhaven Rd Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	1162	$1,450	$1.25	21d	1	1.12mi
13409 Oakleaf Ct Newport News, VA	2.0	1.5	1454	$1,975	$1.36	2d	1	1.17mi
418 Cox Lndg Newport News, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	975	$1,625	$1.67	3d	9	1.33mi
572 Candle Ln Apt 302 Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,395	$1.45	24d	1	1.38mi
568 Candle Ln Newport News, VA	2.0	2.0	960	$1,395	$1.45	44d	1	1.40mi
400 Hilltop Dr Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,500	$1.44	2d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 249 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-01-30
    price $165,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    This two-story condo style home is located in Lees Mills community near Fort Eustis, interstate, shopping, schools, dining and Williamsburg. Home is being sold as is, no repairs by owner and presents an excellent opportunity for cash or renovation loan buyers. The home has two bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms. All this home will need is some tender loving care. The owner has factored in painting and carpet replacement in the listing price. Washer, dryer and refrigerator convey to new owner. Don't miss out on an opportunity to purchase this home.

14. 2025-10-15
    listed $170,000 Active 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    This two-story condo style home is located in Lees Mills community near Fort Eustis, interstate, shopping, schools, dining and Williamsburg. Home is being sold as is, no repairs by owner and presents an excellent opportunity for cash or renovation loan buyers. The home has two bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms. All this home will need is some tender loving care. The owner has factored in painting and carpet replacement in the listing price. Washer, dryer and refrigerator convey to new owner. Don't miss out on an opportunity to purchase this home.

15. 1999-02-26
    soldstatus $64,000
16. 1990-05-29
    soldstatus $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,364 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,364 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,364
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$193
• After-tax cash flow: $1,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport News City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102640
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,644
• Composite: 37.7/100
• National rank: #4360
• State rank: #112 of 131 in VA

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport News, VA
• County: Newport News City · 178,950 people
• City population: 178,950
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 43,641
• Household income: $71,126
• Rent vs Own: 50.4% rent · 49.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2094.0

Population outlook (Newport News County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 181,076 people
• By 2030: 179,683 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 174,649 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 167,407 · -7.5%
• By 2075: 147,597 · -18.5%
• By 2100: 122,144 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newport News

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.8) · D 63.7% · R 34.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 28.7pp · 2024: 28.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.8 2020: D+32.9 2016: D+25.4 2012: D+30.0 2008: D+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.79%
• Current HPI: 297.7465
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.87%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+170.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $165,000 REINMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $170,000 REINMLS
• 1999-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1990-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,364 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.