4967 NE Townline Rd · Fairmount, NY 13108

$175,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1960 Est $341k · 49% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newer boiler heater and new 200 amp service. Roof, windows and siding needs replacement. Interior needs updating. Structurally very sound. Built very well

Key facts

• 200 amp service
• Boiler heater
• Structurally sound

Tags

• BOILER HEATER
• 200 AMP SERVICE
• STRUCTURALLY SOUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Fairmount — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Marcellus Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #249 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: K C Heffernan Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 420 students, 17% FRL); C S Driver Middle School (math 38% / reading 59%, grade C-, #300 of 729 statewide, top 41%, 521 students, 23% FRL); Marcellus High School (math 92% / reading 24%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 466 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $175k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.

Recommended offer $146,315 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.98%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $340,752
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5025 City View Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	6mo	$331,500	$247	62
3237 Howlett Hill Rd	0.32mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+7%)	8mo	$225,000	$142	60
5079 Corporal Welch Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,585 (+6%)	24mo	$310,000	$196	41
4934 Aitchison Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,308 (-12%)	17mo	$300,000	$229	38
5030 Beef St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-8%)	19mo	$341,000	$250	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-38,515
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-46,106
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13108

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$478 /mo · $5,740/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,859

Max offer price $146,315

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-63	-5% $-113	+0% $-162	+5% $-212	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-228	+0% $-162	+5% $-97	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-118	base $-162	+0.5pp $-208	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $175,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $175,000 Active 154-char remark
17. 1995-09-12
    soldstatus $82,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,740 · $478/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,740 · $478/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,740
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,837
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,161
• After-tax cash flow: $-788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marcellus Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618480
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,633
• Composite: 50.53/100
• National rank: #1849
• State rank: #249 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fairmount

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,144

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.68%
• Current HPI: 328.0945
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+112.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $175,000 FSBO.com
• 1995-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,740 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.