652 Central Ave · Reserve, LA 70084

$85,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 304 Days on market

Built 1956 $42/sqft · 62% below area ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home, 5 bedrooms.Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

Key facts

• Balcony
• Front porch
• Back addition

Tags

• BACK ADDITION
• CARPORT AREA
• FRONT PORCH
• BALCONY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $755 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 6.1% in Reserve — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#153 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• St. John The Baptist Parish (suburban): math 13% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #68 of 98 in LA (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 61 units permitted in St. John the Baptist Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. John the Baptist County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.43%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,143
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -61.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
729 Emma Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,924 (-4%)	22mo	$340,000	$177	64
108 E 12th Ext	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,814 (-9%)	10mo	$38,000	$21	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $34,408
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $92,221
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70084

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,474/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $755

Break-even live

Break-even rent $849

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $803	-5% $779	+0% $755	+5% $731	+10% $707
Rent	-10% $613	-5% $684	+0% $755	+5% $827	+10% $898
Rate	-1.0pp $798	-0.5pp $777	base $755	+0.5pp $733	+1.0pp $711

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $85,000 Pending 304 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $85,000 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-05-15
   price $85,000 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

6. 2026-05-15
   price $85,000 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

7. 2026-04-13
   price $90,000 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

8. 2026-04-13
   price $90,000 296-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

9. 2026-04-01
   status Active 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (296 chars)

   Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

10. 2026-04-01
    status Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

11. 2026-03-06
    status Pending 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

12. 2026-03-06
    status Pending 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

13. 2025-12-22
    price $100,000 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

14. 2025-12-22
    price $100,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

15. 2025-12-18
    status Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

16. 2025-12-09
    status Pending 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

17. 2025-10-21
    price $115,000 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

18. 2025-10-21
    price $115,000 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

19. 2025-06-27
    listed $125,000 Active 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

20. 2025-06-27
    listed $125,000 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Spacious home, 5 bedrooms. Back addition to home (den) was built over canal before it became parish servitude. It is no part of the square footage of the home. 30x25 carport area. Front porch and balcony. Being sold in "as is" condition. Sellers have never lived in home, was inherited.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,474 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,474 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,474
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $8,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,983
• After-tax cash flow: $7,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. John The Baptist Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201530
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -39.00%
• Median HH income: $50,280
• Composite: 17.07/100
• National rank: #9120
• State rank: #68 of 98 in LA

Livability — Reserve

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #13020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Reserve, LA
• City population: 5,273
• Population (ZIP): 5,273

Population outlook (St. John the Baptist County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,972 people
• By 2030: 39,295 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 35,902 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 32,988 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 28,661 · -30.0%
• By 2100: 26,456 · -35.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. John the Baptist

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.1) · D 64.0% · R 34.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.9pp toward D · 2008: 16.2pp · 2024: 29.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.1 2020: D+28.2 2016: D+24.5 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+16.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.08%
• Current HPI: 129.578
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-32.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $85,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $85,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $90,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $90,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — GSREIN
• 2026-03-06 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — GSREIN
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $100,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $100,000 GSREIN
• 2025-12-18 Relisted — GSREIN
• 2025-12-09 Pending — GSREIN
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $115,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $115,000 GSREIN
• 2025-06-27 Listed $125,000 GSREIN
• 2025-06-27 Listed $125,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,474 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.