15881 Pollywog Trl Unit B · Oakwood, IL 61858

$65,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect for anyone who loves the outdoors! With a little work this cabin will be perfect place to sneak away from the hustle and bustle of the daily grind! The new owner of this cabin will automatically become a member of the Pollywogs Hunting and Fishing Club (not very easy to do)! Becoming a member give you FULL access to ALL of the Pollywogs waters and land (over 300 acres) The previous owner lived here year round. It is a one bedroom with one bath cabin. It has a open concept with the Kitchen and living room. It comes with a two car detached garage, a well, and septic system (most cabins out here are lacking these amenities). Contact Listing Agent with any questions.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($765 rent vs $65k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,056 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Oakwood CUSD 76 (rural): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #495 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Vermilion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (8.3% local appreciation)).
• Vermilion County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.25%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $37,988
• Equity at exit: $50,765

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $102,961
• Equity at exit: $102,117

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61858

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $765 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$161
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2023-11-27
   status Pending
2. 2023-11-17
   listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$735
• − Management: −$735
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$212
• After-tax cash flow: $1,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakwood CUSD 76
• NCES district ID: 1710800
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $49,722
• Composite: 14.13/100
• National rank: #9456
• State rank: #495 of 620 in IL

Livability — Oakwood

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1056
• US rank: #20208

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,716

Population outlook (Vermilion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 72,775 people
• By 2030: 69,235 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 62,360 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 55,539 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 40,606 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 26,985 · -62.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Vermilion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.7) · D 31.4% · R 67.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.6pp · 2024: -35.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.7 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+15.7 2008: D+0.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.31%
• Current HPI: 251.0822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2023-11-27 Pending — CIBR
• 2023-11-17 Listed $65,000 CIBR