138 Newberry Ln · Marion, MI 48843

$304,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,226 sqft · Condo public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2000 $249/sqft · 48% above area Est $303k · at est. $365/mo HOA · 20% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 138 Newberry Lane! An incredible end-unit ranch condo which is centrally located between Lansing and Detroit! Almost too many updates to list! Featuring a new furnace (2019), new central air (2019), new water heater (2021), new roof (2021), new windows (2021), new washer and dryer (2024), several new light fixtures (2024) and new stainless-steel refrigerator (2024)! Upon entry, you're greeted by a spacious, open floor plan, great closet space and first floor laundry. The kitchen features no shortage of cabinet or counter space! The living room is highlighted by vaulted ceilings, a gas fireplace and a sliding glass door out to the balcony overlooking a wooded area. The primary bedroom has dual closets, a walk-in shower and newer vanity. The partially finished lower level addsanother full bath, third bedroom and walkout! Additional features include a 2-car attached garage, Marion Township tax base, less than 10 minutes to Tanger Outlet, major shopping centers and located less than 3 minutes to the highway! Call today for your private showing!

Key facts

• New furnace
• New washer and dryer
• New water heater

Tags

• NEW FURNACE
• NEW CENTRAL AIR
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW WASHER AND DRYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-945 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (54.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (41.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (54.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#607 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Howell Public Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #116 of 540 in MI (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $138,039 (54.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.28%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,406
• List price: $304,900
• Delta: 0.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-109,381
• Equity at exit: $45,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.01×
• Total profit: $-171,957
• Equity at exit: $26,362

Cash invested: $85,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48843

• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,290/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$365
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-945

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,994

Max offer price $138,039

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,225
• Closing costs: $9,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
67 Percy Dr Unit 1 Howell, MI	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,095	$1.75	43d	1	0.78mi
515 Mason Rd Howell, MI	2.0	1.0	728	$1,279	$1.76	1d	1	1.33mi
307 Holly Hills Dr Howell, MI	1.0	1.0	712	$1,050	$1.47	1d	1	1.44mi
1940 Hawthorn Mdws Oceola Township, MI	2.0	1.0	1125	$1,715	$1.52	1d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $365 · $4,380/yr
• Likely covers: watergas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,900 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,900 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,900 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $304,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $304,900 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,900 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,900 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    price $304,900 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

    Welcome to 138 Newberry Lane! An incredible end-unit ranch condo which is centrally located between Lansing and Detroit! Almost too many updates to list! Featuring a new furnace (2019), new central air (2019), new water heater (2021), new roof (2021), new windows (2021), new washer and dryer (2024), several new light fixtures (2024) and new stainless-steel refrigerator (2024)! Upon entry, you're greeted by a spacious, open floor plan, great closet space and first floor laundry. The kitchen features no shortage of cabinet or counter space! The living room is highlighted by vaulted ceilings, a gas fireplace and a sliding glass door out to the balcony overlooking a wooded area. The primary bedroom has dual closets, a walk-in shower and newer vanity. The partially finished lower level adds another full bath, third bedroom and walkout! Additional features include a 2-car attached garage, Marion Township tax base, less than 10 minutes to Tanger Outlet, major shopping centers and located less than 3 minutes to the highway! Call today for your private showing!

16. 2026-05-04
    price $304,900 1068-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

    Welcome to 138 Newberry Lane! An incredible end-unit ranch condo which is centrally located between Lansing and Detroit! Almost too many updates to list! Featuring a new furnace (2019), new central air (2019), new water heater (2021), new roof (2021), new windows (2021), new washer and dryer (2024), several new light fixtures (2024) and new stainless-steel refrigerator (2024)! Upon entry, you're greeted by a spacious, open floor plan, great closet space and first floor laundry. The kitchen features no shortage of cabinet or counter space! The living room is highlighted by vaulted ceilings, a gas fireplace and a sliding glass door out to the balcony overlooking a wooded area. The primary bedroom has dual closets, a walk-in shower and newer vanity. The partially finished lower level adds another full bath, third bedroom and walkout! Additional features include a 2-car attached garage, Marion Township tax base, less than 10 minutes to Tanger Outlet, major shopping centers and located less than 3 minutes to the highway! Call today for your private showing!

17. 2026-03-24
    listed $314,900 Active 1067-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

    Welcome to 138 Newberry Lane! An incredible end-unit ranch condo which is centrally located between Lansing and Detroit! Almost too many updates to list! Featuring a new furnace (2019), new central air (2019), new water heater (2021), new roof (2021), new windows (2021), new washer and dryer (2024), several new light fixtures (2024) and new stainless-steel refrigerator (2024)! Upon entry, you're greeted by a spacious, open floor plan, great closet space and first floor laundry. The kitchen features no shortage of cabinet or counter space! The living room is highlighted by vaulted ceilings, a gas fireplace and a sliding glass door out to the balcony overlooking a wooded area. The primary bedroom has dual closets, a walk-in shower and newer vanity. The partially finished lower level adds another full bath, third bedroom and walkout! Additional features include a 2-car attached garage, Marion Township tax base, less than 10 minutes to Tanger Outlet, major shopping centers and located less than 3 minutes to the highway! Call today for your private showing!

18. 2026-03-24
    listed $314,900 Active 1068-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1068 chars)

    Welcome to 138 Newberry Lane! An incredible end-unit ranch condo which is centrally located between Lansing and Detroit! Almost too many updates to list! Featuring a new furnace (2019), new central air (2019), new water heater (2021), new roof (2021), new windows (2021), new washer and dryer (2024), several new light fixtures (2024) and new stainless-steel refrigerator (2024)! Upon entry, you're greeted by a spacious, open floor plan, great closet space and first floor laundry. The kitchen features no shortage of cabinet or counter space! The living room is highlighted by vaulted ceilings, a gas fireplace and a sliding glass door out to the balcony overlooking a wooded area. The primary bedroom has dual closets, a walk-in shower and newer vanity. The partially finished lower level adds another full bath, third bedroom and walkout! Additional features include a 2-car attached garage, Marion Township tax base, less than 10 minutes to Tanger Outlet, major shopping centers and located less than 3 minutes to the highway! Call today for your private showing!

19. 2024-08-23
    soldstatus $300,000
20. 2024-08-16
    soldstatus $300,000 Sold
21. 2024-08-16
    soldstatus $300,000 Closed
22. 2024-08-16
    soldstatus $300,000 Sold
23. 2024-08-08
    status Pending
24. 2024-08-08
    status Pending
25. 2024-08-08
    status Pending
26. 2024-08-02
    price $299,900
27. 2024-08-01
    price $299,900
28. 2024-08-01
    price $299,900
29. 2024-07-19
    listed $315,000 Active
30. 2024-07-19
    listed $315,000 Active
31. 2024-07-19
    listed $315,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,290 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,993 · $333/mo
• Expected delta: +$703/yr (+$59/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,079
• − Property taxes: −$3,290
• − Insurance: −$1,524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − HOA: −$4,380
• − Depreciation: −$8,870
• Taxable loss: −$17,018
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,084
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howell Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618720
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,453
• Composite: 41.42/100
• National rank: #3473
• State rank: #116 of 540 in MI

Livability — Marion

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #607
• US rank: #20314

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston County · 121,626 people
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 48,014
• Household income: $94,577
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 644.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,920 people
• By 2030: 209,173 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 216,878 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 217,485 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 217,590 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 197,095 · -2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Italian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.9) · D 37.4% · R 61.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -23.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.9 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -326.17%
• Current HPI: 180.5058
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $304,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $304,900 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2026-03-24 Listed $314,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-24 Listed $314,900 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2024-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-16 Sold (MLS) $300,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-08-16 Sold (MLS) $300,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-16 Sold (MLS) $300,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-08 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2024-08-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-08 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-08-02 Price Changed $299,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $299,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $299,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-07-19 Listed $315,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-07-19 Listed $315,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-19 Listed $315,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,290 · +76.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.