21 Locust Dr · Hornell, NY 14843

$54,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 756 sqft · Manufactured · 118 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $71/sqft · 5311% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new Eastland Concept 2-bedroom, 2 bath home features gorgeous finishes with an open concept kitchen and living area. The kitchen features whirlpool appliances (dishwasher included!), soft close kitchen drawers, and high-quality dovetail constructed cabinetry. The home includes perimeter heat, allowing a variety of furniture placement without blocking vents! Washer and dryer hook-ups are included in the laundry room/pantry off the kitchen. This new home comes with a one-year limited factory warranty from date of purchase, with additional warranties on appliances and other items. Built entirely in a factory before being delivered and set within the community, manufactured homes are built in compliance with strict federal building codes to ensure superior construction, energy efficiency, and quality. The controlled construction environment and assembly line techniques remove problems encountered during traditional on-site home construction. Much like other assembly line operations, manufactured homes benefit from the economies of scale resulting from purchasing large quantities of materials, and these savings are passed directly to the homebuyer.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 118 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $568 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 13.3% in Hornell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#451 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Canisteo-Greenwood CSD (rural): math 51% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #354 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($373 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $49,140 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.07%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $995
• List price: $54,000
• Delta: 5327.14%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Locust Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	840 (+11%)	2mo	$995	$1	79
27 Locust Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	864 (+14%)	2mo	$995	$1	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $45,446
• Equity at exit: $27,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $107,859
• Equity at exit: $44,380

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14843

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $568

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $54,000 Pending 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,000 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $54,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $54,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-02-18
    listed $54,000 Active 1166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1166 chars)

    This new Eastland Concept 2-bedroom, 2 bath home features gorgeous finishes with an open concept kitchen and living area. The kitchen features whirlpool appliances (dishwasher included!), soft close kitchen drawers, and high-quality dovetail constructed cabinetry. The home includes perimeter heat, allowing a variety of furniture placement without blocking vents! Washer and dryer hook-ups are included in the laundry room/pantry off the kitchen. This new home comes with a one-year limited factory warranty from date of purchase, with additional warranties on appliances and other items. Built entirely in a factory before being delivered and set within the community, manufactured homes are built in compliance with strict federal building codes to ensure superior construction, energy efficiency, and quality. The controlled construction environment and assembly line techniques remove problems encountered during traditional on-site home construction. Much like other assembly line operations, manufactured homes benefit from the economies of scale resulting from purchasing large quantities of materials, and these savings are passed directly to the homebuyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,144
• − Management: −$1,144
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $6,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,519
• After-tax cash flow: $5,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good starting point for a cosmetic renovation to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look new
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can attract more buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look new ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgraded appliances can attract more buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canisteo-Greenwood CSD
• NCES district ID: 3600124
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,928
• Composite: 44.25/100
• National rank: #2843
• State rank: #354 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hornell

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #7888

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Steuben County · 41,193 people
• City population: 12,383
• Metro: Corning, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,383
• Household income: $57,874
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 415.0

Population outlook (Steuben County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,062 people
• By 2030: 89,793 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 82,353 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 74,286 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 55,589 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 37,587 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Arabic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Steuben

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 34.1% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Current HPI: 210.1986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Corning, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $54,000 UNYREIS