9966 Melissa Cir · Socorro, TX 79927

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,225 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1983 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unlock the potential in this hidden gem! This fixer-upper is your opportunity to create something truly special. Located in a highly desirable area, you're just minutes from schools, shopping, restaurants, Loop access, and I-10 making daily life convenient and connected. Sitting on a generously sized lot, there's plenty of space to expand, design, or build out your vision. Whether you're an investor or a buyer ready to customize your dream home, this property is full of possibilities. Opportunities like this don't last schedule your showing today and imagine what it can become!

Key facts

• Space to expand
• Generously sized lot
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• SPACE TO EXPAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#830 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.98%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.93% appreciation · 5.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $110
• Equity at exit: $37,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $41,140
• Equity at exit: $40,230

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79927

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,811 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$446 /mo · $5,350/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,675

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $196	-5% $152	+0% $108	+5% $64	+10% $20
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $36	+0% $108	+5% $179	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $147	base $108	+0.5pp $68	+1.0pp $27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10013 Hueco Junction Rd Socorro, TX	4.0	2.5	2379	$1,950	$0.82	3d	1	1.26mi
10540 Socorro Rd Unit A Socorro, TX	4.0	1.0	1647	$1,300	$0.79	12d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $155,000 Pending 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-03
    historical Active Under Contract 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Unlock the potential in this hidden gem! This fixer-upper is your opportunity to create something truly special. Located in a highly desirable area, you're just minutes from schools, shopping, restaurants, Loop access, and I-10 making daily life convenient and connected. Sitting on a generously sized lot, there's plenty of space to expand, design, or build out your vision. Whether you're an investor or a buyer ready to customize your dream home, this property is full of possibilities. Opportunities like this don't last schedule your showing today and imagine what it can become!

14. 2026-04-22
    listed $155,000 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Unlock the potential in this hidden gem! This fixer-upper is your opportunity to create something truly special. Located in a highly desirable area, you're just minutes from schools, shopping, restaurants, Loop access, and I-10 making daily life convenient and connected. Sitting on a generously sized lot, there's plenty of space to expand, design, or build out your vision. Whether you're an investor or a buyer ready to customize your dream home, this property is full of possibilities. Opportunities like this don't last schedule your showing today and imagine what it can become!

15. 2019-11-15
    soldstatus
16. 2019-10-30
    soldstatus
17. 2019-09-09
    historical
18. 2019-09-08
    listed $95,000
19. 2018-12-06
    historical
20. 2018-10-31
    historical
21. 2018-10-18
    price $89,900
22. 2018-10-01
    price $96,000
23. 2018-05-28
    price $99,400
24. 2018-04-09
    listed $99,900 Active
25. 2018-03-01
    soldstatus
26. 2018-03-01
    soldstatus
27. 2018-01-04
    status Pending
28. 2017-09-08
    listed $50,000 Active
29. 2016-12-19
    soldstatus
30. 2012-02-17
    listed $96,000
31. 2006-07-31
    soldstatus
32. 2005-08-30
    soldstatus
33. 1995-02-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,350 · $446/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,350 · $446/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$5,350
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$254
• After-tax cash flow: $1,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — Socorro

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #830
• US rank: #14960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Socorro, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 44,444
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,444
• Household income: $53,652
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 39% Native American 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.93%
• Current HPI: 239.646
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.29%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+61.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Contingent — GEPARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $155,000 GEPARMLS
• 2019-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-09-09 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2019-09-08 Listed $95,000 GEPARMLS
• 2018-12-06 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2018-10-31 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2018-10-18 Price Changed $89,900 GEPARMLS
• 2018-10-01 Price Changed $96,000 GEPARMLS
• 2018-05-28 Price Changed $99,400 GEPARMLS
• 2018-04-09 Listed $99,900 GEPARMLS
• 2018-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-01-04 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2017-09-08 Listed $50,000 GEPARMLS
• 2016-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-02-17 Listed $96,000 GEPARMLS
• 2006-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-08-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,350 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.