12706 E County Rd 84 · Midland, TX 79706

$199,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 242 Days on market

Built 1999 1.50 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful home with over 1 acre of land on the corner for privacy. Great kitchen with ample storage and island. Nice sized bedrooms plus master suite. Large 2 car garage attached to main home. Do not let the days on the market scare you this home shows well.

Key facts

• 1.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $400 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Greenwood ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #220 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,956 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.58%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,441
• Equity at exit: $29,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $24,172
• Equity at exit: $17,288

Cash invested: $55,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79706

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 379
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,999/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $400

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $199,950

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,988
• Closing costs: $5,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,950 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,950 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,950 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,950 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-02-04
   price $199,950 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   Beautiful home with over 1 acre of land on the corner for privacy. Great kitchen with ample storage and island. Nice sized bedrooms plus master suite. Large 2 car garage attached to main home. Do not let the days on the market scare you this home shows well.

6. 2026-02-04
   price $199,959 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   Beautiful home with over 1 acre of land on the corner for privacy. Great kitchen with ample storage and island. Nice sized bedrooms plus master suite. Large 2 car garage attached to main home. Do not let the days on the market scare you this home shows well.

7. 2025-10-03
   listed $205,000 Active 258-char remark

   Show marketing remark (258 chars)

   Beautiful home with over 1 acre of land on the corner for privacy. Great kitchen with ample storage and island. Nice sized bedrooms plus master suite. Large 2 car garage attached to main home. Do not let the days on the market scare you this home shows well.

8. 2025-08-28
   price $205,000
9. 2025-06-12
   price $215,000
10. 2022-05-17
    soldstatus
11. 2019-06-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,200
• − Property taxes: −$2,999
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − Depreciation: −$5,817
• Taxable income: $1,722
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$413
• After-tax cash flow: $4,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenwood ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821750
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $74,012
• Composite: 40.54/100
• National rank: #3701
• State rank: #220 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,281
• Household income: $108,059
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 44% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.42%
• Current HPI: 212.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $199,950 PBBOR
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $199,959 PBBOR
• 2025-10-03 Listed $205,000 PBBOR
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $205,000 PBBOR
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $215,000 PBBOR
• 2022-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-17.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $261 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.