117 W Mombasha Rd · Tuxedo, NY 10950

$339,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 976 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1940 5,130 sqft lot $347/sqft · 21% below area Est $454k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a home that blends comfort, thoughtful updates, and everyday convenience. Skylights fill the living room with natural sunlight, creating a warm and inviting space to relax or gather. The large walk-in pantry offers plenty of storage, while the lower level features a convenient half bath for guests, and the washer and dryer are included in the sale. This home has been exceptionally well maintained, with key updates already in place—including a Lennox boiler, a well pump replaced approximately five years ago, and a newer AC compressor (just two years old). Additional improvements such as a Drylock-sealed crawl space and a French drain installed in 2025 provide added peace of mind. Enjoy easy indoor-outdoor living with doggy doors leading to both the backyard and deck—perfect for pet lovers. The front and back yards are both fully fenced. Deeded access to a motor-free, non-swimmable lake adds to the appeal, offering a wonderful opportunity to enjoy the outdoors, scenic views, and nearby water whenever you choose. A move-in-ready home with practical upgrades and inviting spaces—come see all it has to offer. Easy access to the Thruway, Route 17 and Route 6.

Key facts

• Newer ac compressor
• Half bath for guests
• Lennox boiler

Tags

• SKYLIGHTS
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY
• HALF BATH FOR GUESTS
• LENNOX BOILER
• WELL PUMP
• NEWER AC COMPRESSOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.2% in Tuxedo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Monroe-Woodbury Central School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #250 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,248/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 3149% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $339k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,779 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $454,386
• List price: $339,000
• Delta: -25.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
91 W Mombasha Rd	0.12mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,040 (+7%)	10mo	$420,000	$404	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-54,203
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-58,898
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10950

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$562 /mo · $6,739/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,140

Max offer price $339,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-15
   listed $339,000 Active 1209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

   Welcome to a home that blends comfort, thoughtful updates, and everyday convenience. Skylights fill the living room with natural sunlight, creating a warm and inviting space to relax or gather. The large walk-in pantry offers plenty of storage, while the lower level features a convenient half bath for guests, and the washer and dryer are included in the sale. This home has been exceptionally well maintained, with key updates already in place—including a Lennox boiler, a well pump replaced approximately five years ago, and a newer AC compressor (just two years old). Additional improvements such as a Drylock-sealed crawl space and a French drain installed in 2025 provide added peace of mind. Enjoy easy indoor-outdoor living with doggy doors leading to both the backyard and deck—perfect for pet lovers. The front and back yards are both fully fenced. Deeded access to a motor-free, non-swimmable lake adds to the appeal, offering a wonderful opportunity to enjoy the outdoors, scenic views, and nearby water whenever you choose. A move-in-ready home with practical upgrades and inviting spaces—come see all it has to offer. Easy access to the Thruway, Route 17 and Route 6.

2. 2005-04-27
   soldstatus $205,000
3. 2005-04-11
   soldstatus $215,000 138-char remark

   Show marketing remark (138 chars)

   great starter home. great commuter location. lake views. nu-roof, nu-fence, nu-retainerwall and steps. nu-bath and kitchen. nu-appliances.

4. 2005-01-13
   historical 138-char remark

   Show marketing remark (138 chars)

   great starter home. great commuter location. lake views. nu-roof, nu-fence, nu-retainerwall and steps. nu-bath and kitchen. nu-appliances.

5. 2005-01-13
   price $229,900 138-char remark

   Show marketing remark (138 chars)

   great starter home. great commuter location. lake views. nu-roof, nu-fence, nu-retainerwall and steps. nu-bath and kitchen. nu-appliances.

6. 2004-08-06
   listed $215,000 138-char remark

   Show marketing remark (138 chars)

   great starter home. great commuter location. lake views. nu-roof, nu-fence, nu-retainerwall and steps. nu-bath and kitchen. nu-appliances.

7. 2001-09-24
   soldstatus $145,000
8. 2001-09-21
   soldstatus $152,500
9. 2001-09-18
   historical
10. 2001-09-18
    price $145,900
11. 2001-06-12
    listed $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,739 · $562/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,739 · $562/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$6,739
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,118
• − Management: −$3,118
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$4,547
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,091
• After-tax cash flow: $2,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe-Woodbury Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619650
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $104,681
• Composite: 50.48/100
• National rank: #1855
• State rank: #250 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tuxedo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 8,036
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,136
• Household income: $78,931
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3149.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scandinavian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · German/W. Germanic 52% Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 314.2081
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.50%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+133.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $339,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-11 Sold (MLS) $215,000 HGMLS
• 2005-01-13 Price Changed $229,900 HGMLS
• 2005-01-13 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2004-08-06 Listed $215,000 HGMLS
• 2001-09-24 Sold (MLS) $145,000 HGMLS
• 2001-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $152,500 Public Records
• 2001-09-18 Price Changed $145,900 HGMLS
• 2001-09-18 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2001-06-12 Listed $145,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,739 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.