1935 Regina Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33850

$134,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1989 5,998 sqft lot $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful well maintained home in Lake Mariana Acres. This water access community offers a clubhouse for entertaining, games, and parties. There is a shuffle board area, dock for fishing and a community boat ramp. This furnished home is super clean with lots of extra space, move in ready, all it needs is a new owner! The entire home is surrounded with pavers, there are two sheds, 12X10 that can fit a golf cart and a 8x8 used as a workshop. There is an exterior covered area with a privacy fence on that side of the home. Walk into the enclosed lania area 15x20 with newer windows and screens, this offers the ability to have fresh air or allow for the cool air from inside the home to come into

Key facts

• Community boat ramp
• Dock for fishing
• Privacy fence

Tags

• WATER ACCESS COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE FOR ENTERTAINING
• DOCK FOR FISHING
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP
• EXTERIOR COVERED AREA
• PRIVACY FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Total living area ~784 sq ft; Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre
• Financial info: $75 annual association fee
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Don Massey) — $75 annually ($6.25 monthly); Clubhouse; Shuffleboard court; Golf carts allowed; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available; No water source on record
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Other foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Awnings; Vinyl fencing; Shed(s); Lake access (Mariana) — skiing allowed; Level, paved lot; Road paved

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Great room; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $135k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.00%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,784
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $24,357
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33850

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,915/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $391	-5% $353	+0% $315	+5% $277	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $190	-5% $253	+0% $315	+5% $377	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $383	-0.5pp $349	base $315	+0.5pp $280	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1040 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,475	$1.54	24d	1	1.35mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1036 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,445	$1.51	24d	1	1.35mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1065 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,425	$1.49	24d	1	1.35mi
711 Lake Jessie Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,400	$1.58	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-01-12
    listed $134,900 Active
15. 2017-03-17
    soldstatus $55,000
16. 2016-03-22
    soldstatus $55,000
17. 1988-03-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,915 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,915 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,915
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $1,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$416
• After-tax cash flow: $3,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,757
• Household income: $61,622
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.91%
• Current HPI: 353.941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1249.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-12 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,915 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.