329 Arapaho Ln · Madison, MS 39110

$307,700

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1975 0.52 ac lot $94/sqft · 44% below area Est $560k · 45% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WATERFRONT! Welcome to this beautifully updated and exceptionally spacious five,3.5-bath WATERFRONT home offering 3,373 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Perfectly situated in the highly sought-after Madison School District and zoned for Madison Avenue Elementary School, Madison Middle School, and Madison Central High school, this property combines location, luxury, and long-term value. Completely remodeled in 2025, the home features brand-new appliances and durable waterproof wood flooring, offering both style and practicality. The cozy family room is anchored by a charming fireplace, creating the perfect setting for relaxing evenings. A bright dinning nook overlooks the tranquil lake, providing picturesque views with every meal. Designed for convenience, the extra-large laundry room offers abundant storage and workspace. The home's elegant finishes and thoughtful upgrades make this home appealing in numerous ways. Step outside to your private waterfront retreat, complete with greenhouse facing the lake and vast backyard ready for planting, entertaining, or creating your own nature-filled oasis. Whether you're searching for a forever home or you're investor seeking an upgraded, income-ready property with strong appreciation potential, this exceptional residence is prepared to bring your vision to life. *Some photos have been virtually staged*

Key facts

• Waterfront home
• Remodeled in 2025
• New appliances

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• MADISON SCHOOL DISTRICT
• REMODELED IN 2025
• NEW APPLIANCES
• WATERPROOF WOOD FLOORING
• EXTRA-LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $308k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($847/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 632 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,111 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $559,568
• List price: $307,700
• Delta: -44.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
180 Wright's Mill Dr	0.54mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,525 (+7%)	2mo	$595,900	$169	54
316 Culleys Stand	0.57mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,040 (-7%)	2mo	$600,000	$197	53
524 Pawnee Way	0.40mi	3/3.5	3,662 (+12%)	10mo	$399,900	$109	52
336 Long Cove Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,470 (+6%)	1mo	$599,900	$173	51
226 Wrights Mill Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,008 (-8%)	8mo	$645,000	$214	48
123 Cavanaugh Dr	0.64mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,119 (-5%)	13mo	$525,000	$168	46
153 Wrights Mill Dr	0.68mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,526 (+7%)	6mo	$548,000	$155	44
3 Sandalwood Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,190 (-3%)	13mo	$415,000	$130	43
151 Cavanaugh Dr	0.55mi	4/4.5 (+1)	3,433 (+4%)	22mo	$625,000	$182	41
532 Pawnee Way	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	3,050 (-7%)	24mo	$385,000	$126	35
13 Village Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,613 (+10%)	19mo	$250,000	$69	32
107 Coachmans Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	2,925 (-11%)	16mo	$364,000	$124	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-46,423
• Equity at exit: $45,879

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-38,944
• Equity at exit: $26,604

Cash invested: $86,156 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 632
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,661 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,614
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,478/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,572

Max offer price $307,700

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $245	-5% $158	+0% $71	+5% $-17	+10% $-104
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-35	+0% $71	+5% $176	+10% $281
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $149	base $71	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,925
• Closing costs: $9,231
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $307,700 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $312,700 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $312,700 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $312,700 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $312,700 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $312,700 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $317,700 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $317,700 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $317,700 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $317,700 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $317,700 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,700 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,700 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,700 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $324,700 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    price $337,000 1387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1387 chars)

    WATERFRONT! Welcome to this beautifully updated and exceptionally spacious five,3.5-bath WATERFRONT home offering 3,373 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Perfectly situated in the highly sought-after Madison School District and zoned for Madison Avenue Elementary School, Madison Middle School, and Madison Central High school, this property combines location, luxury, and long-term value. Completely remodeled in 2025, the home features brand-new appliances and durable waterproof wood flooring, offering both style and practicality. The cozy family room is anchored by a charming fireplace, creating the perfect setting for relaxing evenings. A bright dinning nook overlooks the tranquil lake, providing picturesque views with every meal. Designed for convenience, the extra-large laundry room offers abundant storage and workspace. The home's elegant finishes and thoughtful upgrades make this home appealing in numerous ways. Step outside to your private waterfront retreat, complete with greenhouse facing the lake and vast backyard ready for planting, entertaining, or creating your own nature-filled oasis. Whether you're searching for a forever home or you're investor seeking an upgraded, income-ready property with strong appreciation potential, this exceptional residence is prepared to bring your vision to life. *Some photos have been virtually staged*

17. 2026-04-06
    price $356,000 1387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1387 chars)

    WATERFRONT! Welcome to this beautifully updated and exceptionally spacious five,3.5-bath WATERFRONT home offering 3,373 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Perfectly situated in the highly sought-after Madison School District and zoned for Madison Avenue Elementary School, Madison Middle School, and Madison Central High school, this property combines location, luxury, and long-term value. Completely remodeled in 2025, the home features brand-new appliances and durable waterproof wood flooring, offering both style and practicality. The cozy family room is anchored by a charming fireplace, creating the perfect setting for relaxing evenings. A bright dinning nook overlooks the tranquil lake, providing picturesque views with every meal. Designed for convenience, the extra-large laundry room offers abundant storage and workspace. The home's elegant finishes and thoughtful upgrades make this home appealing in numerous ways. Step outside to your private waterfront retreat, complete with greenhouse facing the lake and vast backyard ready for planting, entertaining, or creating your own nature-filled oasis. Whether you're searching for a forever home or you're investor seeking an upgraded, income-ready property with strong appreciation potential, this exceptional residence is prepared to bring your vision to life. *Some photos have been virtually staged*

18. 2026-03-20
    listed $359,000 Active 1387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1387 chars)

    WATERFRONT! Welcome to this beautifully updated and exceptionally spacious five,3.5-bath WATERFRONT home offering 3,373 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Perfectly situated in the highly sought-after Madison School District and zoned for Madison Avenue Elementary School, Madison Middle School, and Madison Central High school, this property combines location, luxury, and long-term value. Completely remodeled in 2025, the home features brand-new appliances and durable waterproof wood flooring, offering both style and practicality. The cozy family room is anchored by a charming fireplace, creating the perfect setting for relaxing evenings. A bright dinning nook overlooks the tranquil lake, providing picturesque views with every meal. Designed for convenience, the extra-large laundry room offers abundant storage and workspace. The home's elegant finishes and thoughtful upgrades make this home appealing in numerous ways. Step outside to your private waterfront retreat, complete with greenhouse facing the lake and vast backyard ready for planting, entertaining, or creating your own nature-filled oasis. Whether you're searching for a forever home or you're investor seeking an upgraded, income-ready property with strong appreciation potential, this exceptional residence is prepared to bring your vision to life. *Some photos have been virtually staged*

19. 2026-01-02
    historical
20. 2025-10-28
    price $350,000
21. 2025-10-22
    price $355,000
22. 2025-07-02
    listed $385,000 Active
23. 2025-01-28
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2025-01-21
    status Pending
25. 2024-11-14
    status Active
26. 2024-11-11
    status Pending
27. 2024-11-08
    price $175,000
28. 2024-10-25
    listed $189,000 Active
29. 2024-10-08
    soldstatus
30. 2021-10-08
    historical
31. 2021-10-02
    historical
32. 2015-01-24
    listed $217,000
33. 2014-03-03
    soldstatus
34. 2014-02-27
    soldstatus
35. 2013-05-03
    listed $219,000
36. 2010-09-29
    listed $275,000
37. 1985-10-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,478 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,478 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,933
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,236
• − Property taxes: −$3,478
• − Insurance: −$1,538
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,555
• − Management: −$2,555
• − Depreciation: −$8,951
• Taxable loss: −$4,380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,051
• After-tax cash flow: $1,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+22.5% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $337,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $356,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-20 Listed $359,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $350,000 MLSU
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $355,000 MLSU
• 2025-07-02 Listed $385,000 MLSU
• 2025-01-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2025-01-21 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-11-14 Relisted — MLSU
• 2024-11-11 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-11-08 Price Changed $175,000 MLSU
• 2024-10-25 Listed $189,000 MLSU
• 2024-10-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2015-01-24 Listed $217,000 MLSU
• 2014-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-02-27 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-05-03 Listed $219,000 MLSU
• 2010-09-29 Listed $275,000 MLSU
• 1985-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,478 · +155.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.