307 W 22nd St · Erie, PA 16502

$134,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,384 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 204 Days on market

Built 1912 5,009 sqft lot Est $138k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Well-maintained and fully occupied duplex offering a total of 4 bedrooms and recent updates. Each unit provides comfortable living space with a functional layout. Conveniently located near schools, parks, and local amenities. Owner occupy or invest for immediate cash flow.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Near parks
• Functional layout

Tags

• RECENT UPDATES
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• NEAR PARKS
• NEAR LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $369/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,153/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1044% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $102k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.46%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,272
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
358 W 24th St	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,392 (+0%)	12mo	$108,000	$45	83
417 W 17th St	0.35mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,444 (+2%)	7mo	$78,027	$32	69
649 W 21st St	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,308 (-3%)	6mo	$170,000	$74	67
336 W 21st St	0.10mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,234 (-6%)	14mo	$100,000	$45	64
2124 Liberty St	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,260 (-5%)	3mo	$95,000	$42	60
2912 French St	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,432 (+2%)	12mo	$140,000	$58	56
318 W 29th St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,600 (+9%)	7mo	$100,000	$38	54
344-46 W 21st St	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,708 (+14%)	15mo	$125,000	$46	50
715 W 21st St	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,112 (-11%)	14mo	$135,000	$64	44
2955 Maple St	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,157 (-10%)	11mo	$127,000	$59	42
719 W 21st St	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,112 (-11%)	20mo	$130,250	$62	38
906 W 21st St	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,040 (-14%)	8mo	$150,000	$74	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $25,152
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $82,395
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16502

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,387/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,218

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 61%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,154
Total (2 units)			$2,153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	43d	1	0.70mi
538 W 8th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	43d	1	1.02mi
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	43d	1	1.02mi
2702 Raspberry St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,200	$0.60	43d	1	1.04mi
729 W 9th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1782	$3,000	$1.68	43d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,900 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $134,900 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-08
   status Active
5. 2026-03-15
   status Pending
6. 2025-12-03
   price $134,900
7. 2025-09-11
   listed $144,900 Active
8. 2023-09-12
   soldstatus $102,000
9. 2021-02-16
   soldstatus $55,000
10. 2017-03-16
    soldstatus $39,000
11. 2017-03-16
    soldstatus $39,000
12. 2017-02-06
    listed $53,000
13. 2016-01-14
    listed $57,000
14. 2013-01-08
    listed $60,000
15. 1989-06-20
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,387 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,387 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,387
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $7,160
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,718
• After-tax cash flow: $7,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,995
• Household income: $38,566
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1044.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.73%
• Current HPI: 211.4408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+285.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-03-15 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $134,900 GEBOR
• 2025-09-11 Listed $144,900 GEBOR
• 2023-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 2017-03-16 Sold (MLS) $39,000 GEBOR
• 2017-02-06 Listed $53,000 GEBOR
• 2016-01-14 Listed $57,000 GEBOR
• 2013-01-08 Listed $60,000 GEBOR
• 1989-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,387 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.