3530 Ambersweet Xing · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$339,298

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,874 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $345k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step inside this spacious 1,874 square foot two-story home and discover an open-concept first floor designed for effortless entertaining and everyday living. The kitchen is a chef's dream, featuring shaker-style cabinetry with designer hardware, durable quartz countertops with a 4" backsplash and a suite of stainless steel appliances including a slide-in electric range, over-the-range microwave, side-by-side refrigerator and dishwasher. The dining and family rooms flow seamlessly together, leading to the backyard through sliding glass doors. Upstairs, a generous loft offers extra living space, while the serene owner's suite boasts a quartz-topped vanity, full-width mirror and elegant w

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Serene owner's suite
• Covered lanai

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED LANAI
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• SEPARATE SECONDARY BEDROOMS
• SERENE OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 3530 Ambersweet Xing, Parrish, FL 34219; Listing status: Active; List price: $339,298; Last updated: 2026-06-10

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Columbus plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,874

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (Columbus plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-771/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $330k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $288,680 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,816
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17837 Haden Cv	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,847 (-1%)	1mo	$326,998	$177	85
3805 Ambersweet Xing	0.22mi	4/2.5	1,874 (0%)	8mo	$325,000	$173	83
3818 Ambersweet Xing	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,874 (0%)	8mo	$300,000	$160	82
17827 Garden Grove Way	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	0mo	$365,000	$180	76
3539 Night Star Ter	0.20mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,849 (-1%)	7mo	$345,000	$187	75
3123 Pineberry Xing	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	1mo	$425,000	$209	74
3540 Night Star Ter	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	5mo	$375,000	$185	72
3325 Night Star Ter	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	4mo	$450,000	$221	72
3547 Night Star Ter	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	10mo	$374,597	$184	66
3523 Night Star Ter	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+8%)	10mo	$375,000	$185	66
3813 Ambersweet Xing	0.23mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (+13%)	1mo	$345,000	$163	62
3427 Night Star Ter	0.24mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (+13%)	8mo	$379,000	$179	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-67,489
• Equity at exit: $50,590

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-96,554
• Equity at exit: $29,336

Cash invested: $95,003 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,887 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,779
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$424 /mo · $5,089/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,968

Max offer price $330,002

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,824
• Closing costs: $10,179
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	23d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,298 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 694-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,298 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,298 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,298 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,298 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 423-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $339,298 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,089
• − Insurance: −$1,696
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,771
• − Management: −$2,771
• − Depreciation: −$9,870
• Taxable loss: −$6,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,575
• After-tax cash flow: $804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B