11357 Cedar Glades Dr · Vance, AL 35490

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,415 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2008 0.40 ac lot $177/sqft · 9% below area Est $274k · 9% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready one-level home located next to Vance Ball Park! This home features a vaulted great room with gas fireplace, hardwood floors, and a dining area. The kitchen offers tile flooring, breakfast area, and stainless steel appliances to remain. Spacious primary suite includes tray ceiling, walk-in closet, and bath with garden tub, separate shower, and double vanities. Two additional bedrooms with ample closet space. Enjoy the covered back porch overlooking a level, fenced backyard. Convenient to Mercedes-Benz and Tuscaloosa. Neighborhood amenities include street lights, park, pavilion, BBQ area, basketball court, and direct park access. Qualifies for 100% USDA financing.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2008

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-40/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Vance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#117 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,337 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,819
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -8.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11617 Box Elder Way	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+3%)	7mo	$205,000	$141	85
11573 Cedar Glades Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	19mo	$242,500	$168	69
11390 Tingle Tangle Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+7%)	9mo	$230,000	$152	58
17644 Wallace Chapel Ln	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,348 (-5%)	13mo	$200,000	$148	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $135,771
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $399,761
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35490

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $667/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,888

Max offer price $249,305

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11565 Cedar Glades Dr Vance, AL	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,661	$1.03	10d	1	0.25mi
17686 Wallace Chapel Ln Vance, AL	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,450	$1.37	43d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-04-04
    listed $249,900 Active 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    Move-in ready one-level home located next to Vance Ball Park! This home features a vaulted great room with gas fireplace, hardwood floors, and a dining area. The kitchen offers tile flooring, breakfast area, and stainless steel appliances to remain. Spacious primary suite includes tray ceiling, walk-in closet, and bath with garden tub, separate shower, and double vanities. Two additional bedrooms with ample closet space. Enjoy the covered back porch overlooking a level, fenced backyard. Convenient to Mercedes-Benz and Tuscaloosa. Neighborhood amenities include street lights, park, pavilion, BBQ area, basketball court, and direct park access. Qualifies for 100% USDA financing.

18. 2026-03-31
    historical $249,900 684-char remark

    Show marketing remark (684 chars)

    Move-in ready one-level home located next to Vance Ball Park! This home features a vaulted great room with gas fireplace, hardwood floors, and a dining area. The kitchen offers tile flooring, breakfast area, and stainless steel appliances to remain. Spacious primary suite includes tray ceiling, walk-in closet, and bath with garden tub, separate shower, and double vanities. Two additional bedrooms with ample closet space. Enjoy the covered back porch overlooking a level, fenced backyard. Convenient to Mercedes-Benz and Tuscaloosa. Neighborhood amenities include street lights, park, pavilion, BBQ area, basketball court, and direct park access. Qualifies for 100% USDA financing.

19. 2023-04-20
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed
20. 2023-04-20
    soldstatus $230,000 Sold
21. 2023-03-20
    status Pending
22. 2023-03-20
    historical Contingent
23. 2023-03-17
    listed $230,000 Active
24. 2023-03-17
    listed $230,000 Active
25. 2023-03-15
    historical $230,000
26. 2018-05-31
    soldstatus $165,000
27. 2017-07-24
    listed $169,900
28. 2008-09-11
    soldstatus $176,207

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $667 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$357/yr (+$30/mo · 53.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$667
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $1,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Vance

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #12508

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vance, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 4,457
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,457
• Household income: $87,813
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Two or more races 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: French 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.30%
• Current HPI: 222.8671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+41.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $249,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-31 Coming Soon $249,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-04-20 Sold (MLS) $230,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-04-20 Sold (MLS) $230,000 WAMLS
• 2023-03-20 Pending — WAMLS
• 2023-03-20 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-03-17 Listed $230,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-03-17 Listed $230,000 WAMLS
• 2023-03-15 Coming Soon $230,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-24 Listed $169,900 WAMLS
• 2008-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $176,207 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $667 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.