1214 Sherburne Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$315,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1890 8,058 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Windows-2013. Hardwood floors. Close to light rail.

Key facts

• 8,058 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1890

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $584/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $315k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,436/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; list at $315k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $315,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.90%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $21,320
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $106,041
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$553 /mo · $6,634/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$932
• Net cashflow: $1,168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,957

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 69%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,436
Total (2 units)			$4,436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-31
   remarks 271-char remark
2. 2026-05-31
   listed $315,000 Pending 9 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,634 · $553/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,634 · $553/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$6,634
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,259
• − Management: −$4,259
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable income: $9,697
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,327
• After-tax cash flow: $11,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-05 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $315,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Coming Soon $315,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Rental Removed $1,200 NORTHSTARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed for Rent $1,200 NORTHSTARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Rental Removed $1,350 NORTHSTARMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed for Rent $1,350 NORTHSTARMLS
• 2017-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $181,800 Public Records
• 2017-02-02 Sold (MLS) $181,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-29 Price Changed $189,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-19 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-12-15 Price Changed $149,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-21 Price Changed $199,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-03 Listed $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,634 · +21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.