7128 Ellie B Dr · Panama City, FL 32404

$240,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.29 ac lot $136/sqft · 24% below area Est $315k · 24% under $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* SHORT SALE APPROVED * Short Sale Opportunity: Welcome to this beautiful Cali floorplan located in the desirable Olde Towne Village! This four-bedroom home, which includes a versatile room perfect for a den or home office, is ready for a new owner to make it their own. As you enter, you'll be greeted by quality paint with an orange peel texture and traditional 8' ceilings, creating an inviting atmosphere. The common areas feature durable vinyl flooring, while each bedroom has plush carpeting for added comfort. The open and spacious kitchen is a highlight, featuring a center island, a pantry for ample storage, beautiful light cabinetry, and durable laminate countertops. Included appliances are a dishwasher, stove, and microwave. The main suite offers a well-appointed bath with a separate shower, a large soaking tub, and a generous walk-in closet, providing a perfect retreat at the end of the day. This property is on a waterfront lot, allowing you to enjoy serene views and outdoor activities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and Tyndall Air Force Base.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Versatile room
• Cali floorplan

Tags

• CALI FLOORPLAN
• VERSATILE ROOM
• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.3% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tommy Smith Elementary School (math 46% / reading 51%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 639 students, 53% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1200 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.90%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $314,794
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -20.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5817 Tiagra Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,787 (+1%)	3mo	$342,750	$192	93
7109 Penn Way	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,789 (+1%)	0mo	$275,000	$154	86
7106 Penn Way	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,789 (+1%)	3mo	$275,000	$154	85
7304 Ellie B Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,788 (+1%)	2mo	$258,000	$144	85
7141 Hatteras Blvd	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,813 (+2%)	8mo	$292,500	$161	83
5821 Viking Way	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,827 (+3%)	6mo	$305,000	$167	80
7121 Riverbrooke St	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,768 (0%)	3mo	$290,000	$164	72
7135 Hatteras Blvd	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,028 (+15%)	0mo	$295,000	$145	70
7121 Shimano Way	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (-13%)	7mo	$275,000	$179	64
5536 Lexa Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,620 (-8%)	6mo	$290,000	$179	56
5240 Salvation St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,711 (-3%)	3mo	$351,437	$205	54
6119 Katie Way	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-14%)	5mo	$244,900	$162	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,365
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-25,002
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $300,990 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1200
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,019/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,112

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $354	-5% $286	+0% $219	+5% $151	+10% $83
Rent	-10% $30	-5% $124	+0% $219	+5% $313	+10% $407
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $280	base $219	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5832 Viking Way Panama City, FL	5.0	3.0	2593	$2,595	$1.00	62d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail $58/mo · $696/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $240,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   price $240,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-08-05
   days on market $250,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-08-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-08-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-07-31
   days on market $250,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $250,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-07-29
    days on market $250,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-07-27
    days on market $250,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-07-25
    days on market $250,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $250,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $250,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $250,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $250,000 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $250,000 Active 91 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $250,000 Active 90 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $250,000 Active 89 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $250,000 Active 88 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $250,000 Active 87 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $250,000 Active 86 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $250,000 Active 85 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $250,000 Active 84 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $250,000 Active 83 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $250,000 Active 82 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $250,000 Active 81 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $250,000 Active 80 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 79 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 78 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $250,000 Active 77 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 76 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 75 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $260,000 Active 74 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $260,000 Active 73 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $260,000 Active 72 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $260,000 Active 71 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $260,000 Active 69 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $260,000 Active 67 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $260,000 Active 66 DOM
41. 2026-06-19
    days on market $260,000 Active 64 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $260,000 Active 63 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $260,000 Active 62 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $260,000 Active 61 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    price $260,000 Active 60 DOM
46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $273,000 Active 60 DOM
47. 2026-06-14
    days on market $273,000 Active 58 DOM
48. 2026-06-13
    days on market $273,000 Active 57 DOM
49. 2026-06-10
    days on market $273,000 Active 55 DOM
50. 2026-06-09
    days on market $273,000 Active 54 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,019 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,019 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,019
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,293
• − Management: −$2,293
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$1,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$304
• After-tax cash flow: $2,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,840–$26,520 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in Olde Towne Village is ready for a new owner to make it their own. The spacious kitchen, good condition of the exterior, and fresh paint make it an attractive option for buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can make the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard and landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for both comfort and energy efficiency, impacting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tommy Smith Elementary School D FL #1,152/2,144 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Merritt Brown Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Rutherford High School F FL #489/667 Nat'l #12,196/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+16.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $273,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $276,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $280,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $235,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+61.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,019 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.