7128 Ellie B Dr · Panama City, FL 32404

$260,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.29 ac lot $147/sqft · 14% below area Est $301k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* SHORT SALE APPROVED * Short Sale Opportunity: Welcome to this beautiful Cali floorplan located in the desirable Olde Towne Village! This four-bedroom home, which includes a versatile room perfect for a den or home office, is ready for a new owner to make it their own. As you enter, you'll be greeted by quality paint with an orange peel texture and traditional 8' ceilings, creating an inviting atmosphere. The common areas feature durable vinyl flooring, while each bedroom has plush carpeting for added comfort. The open and spacious kitchen is a highlight, featuring a center island, a pantry for ample storage, beautiful light cabinetry, and durable laminate countertops. Included appliances are a dishwasher, stove, and microwave. The main suite offers a well-appointed bath with a separate shower, a large soaking tub, and a generous walk-in closet, providing a perfect retreat at the end of the day. This property is on a waterfront lot, allowing you to enjoy serene views and outdoor activities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and Tyndall Air Force Base.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Versatile room
• Cali floorplan

Tags

• CALI FLOORPLAN
• VERSATILE ROOM
• DURABLE VINYL FLOORING
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $121 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,503 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.00%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,147
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -13.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7159 Riverbrooke St	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,768 (0%)	13mo	$294,500	$167	67
7121 Shimano Way	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (-13%)	5mo	$275,000	$179	65
7130 Hatteras Blvd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,546 (-13%)	13mo	$270,000	$175	59
7127 Penn Way	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-14%)	11mo	$290,000	$190	54
5340 Whitney Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-1%)	17mo	$308,000	$176	53
7142 Hatteras Blvd	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,031 (+15%)	23mo	$299,999	$148	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-38,752
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-40,970
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,019/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,181

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5832 Viking Way Panama City, FL	5.0	3.0	2593	$2,595	$1.00	13d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $260,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $260,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $273,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $273,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $273,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $273,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $273,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $273,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $273,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $273,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $273,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $273,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $273,000 1079-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    * SHORT SALE APPROVED * Short Sale Opportunity: Welcome to this beautiful Cali floorplan located in the desirable Olde Towne Village! This four-bedroom home, which includes a versatile room perfect for a den or home office, is ready for a new owner to make it their own. As you enter, you'll be greeted by quality paint with an orange peel texture and traditional 8' ceilings, creating an inviting atmosphere. The common areas feature durable vinyl flooring, while each bedroom has plush carpeting for added comfort. The open and spacious kitchen is a highlight, featuring a center island, a pantry for ample storage, beautiful light cabinetry, and durable laminate countertops. Included appliances are a dishwasher, stove, and microwave. The main suite offers a well-appointed bath with a separate shower, a large soaking tub, and a generous walk-in closet, providing a perfect retreat at the end of the day. This property is on a waterfront lot, allowing you to enjoy serene views and outdoor activities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and Tyndall Air Force Base.

17. 2026-05-02
    price $276,000 1079-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    * SHORT SALE APPROVED * Short Sale Opportunity: Welcome to this beautiful Cali floorplan located in the desirable Olde Towne Village! This four-bedroom home, which includes a versatile room perfect for a den or home office, is ready for a new owner to make it their own. As you enter, you'll be greeted by quality paint with an orange peel texture and traditional 8' ceilings, creating an inviting atmosphere. The common areas feature durable vinyl flooring, while each bedroom has plush carpeting for added comfort. The open and spacious kitchen is a highlight, featuring a center island, a pantry for ample storage, beautiful light cabinetry, and durable laminate countertops. Included appliances are a dishwasher, stove, and microwave. The main suite offers a well-appointed bath with a separate shower, a large soaking tub, and a generous walk-in closet, providing a perfect retreat at the end of the day. This property is on a waterfront lot, allowing you to enjoy serene views and outdoor activities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and Tyndall Air Force Base.

18. 2026-04-21
    status Active 1079-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    * SHORT SALE APPROVED * Short Sale Opportunity: Welcome to this beautiful Cali floorplan located in the desirable Olde Towne Village! This four-bedroom home, which includes a versatile room perfect for a den or home office, is ready for a new owner to make it their own. As you enter, you'll be greeted by quality paint with an orange peel texture and traditional 8' ceilings, creating an inviting atmosphere. The common areas feature durable vinyl flooring, while each bedroom has plush carpeting for added comfort. The open and spacious kitchen is a highlight, featuring a center island, a pantry for ample storage, beautiful light cabinetry, and durable laminate countertops. Included appliances are a dishwasher, stove, and microwave. The main suite offers a well-appointed bath with a separate shower, a large soaking tub, and a generous walk-in closet, providing a perfect retreat at the end of the day. This property is on a waterfront lot, allowing you to enjoy serene views and outdoor activities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and Tyndall Air Force Base.

19. 2026-04-21
    price $280,000 1079-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    * SHORT SALE APPROVED * Short Sale Opportunity: Welcome to this beautiful Cali floorplan located in the desirable Olde Towne Village! This four-bedroom home, which includes a versatile room perfect for a den or home office, is ready for a new owner to make it their own. As you enter, you'll be greeted by quality paint with an orange peel texture and traditional 8' ceilings, creating an inviting atmosphere. The common areas feature durable vinyl flooring, while each bedroom has plush carpeting for added comfort. The open and spacious kitchen is a highlight, featuring a center island, a pantry for ample storage, beautiful light cabinetry, and durable laminate countertops. Included appliances are a dishwasher, stove, and microwave. The main suite offers a well-appointed bath with a separate shower, a large soaking tub, and a generous walk-in closet, providing a perfect retreat at the end of the day. This property is on a waterfront lot, allowing you to enjoy serene views and outdoor activities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and Tyndall Air Force Base.

20. 2026-03-11
    historical Active Under Contract 1079-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    * SHORT SALE APPROVED * Short Sale Opportunity: Welcome to this beautiful Cali floorplan located in the desirable Olde Towne Village! This four-bedroom home, which includes a versatile room perfect for a den or home office, is ready for a new owner to make it their own. As you enter, you'll be greeted by quality paint with an orange peel texture and traditional 8' ceilings, creating an inviting atmosphere. The common areas feature durable vinyl flooring, while each bedroom has plush carpeting for added comfort. The open and spacious kitchen is a highlight, featuring a center island, a pantry for ample storage, beautiful light cabinetry, and durable laminate countertops. Included appliances are a dishwasher, stove, and microwave. The main suite offers a well-appointed bath with a separate shower, a large soaking tub, and a generous walk-in closet, providing a perfect retreat at the end of the day. This property is on a waterfront lot, allowing you to enjoy serene views and outdoor activities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and Tyndall Air Force Base.

21. 2026-03-03
    listed $235,000 Active 1079-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    * SHORT SALE APPROVED * Short Sale Opportunity: Welcome to this beautiful Cali floorplan located in the desirable Olde Towne Village! This four-bedroom home, which includes a versatile room perfect for a den or home office, is ready for a new owner to make it their own. As you enter, you'll be greeted by quality paint with an orange peel texture and traditional 8' ceilings, creating an inviting atmosphere. The common areas feature durable vinyl flooring, while each bedroom has plush carpeting for added comfort. The open and spacious kitchen is a highlight, featuring a center island, a pantry for ample storage, beautiful light cabinetry, and durable laminate countertops. Included appliances are a dishwasher, stove, and microwave. The main suite offers a well-appointed bath with a separate shower, a large soaking tub, and a generous walk-in closet, providing a perfect retreat at the end of the day. This property is on a waterfront lot, allowing you to enjoy serene views and outdoor activities. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and Tyndall Air Force Base.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,019 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,019 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,019
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$2,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$698
• After-tax cash flow: $2,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Olde Towne Village is ready for a new owner to make it their own. The spacious kitchen, good condition of the exterior, and fresh paint make it an attractive option for buyers.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can make the home more attractive to potential buyers.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard and landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for both comfort and energy efficiency, impacting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can make the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard and landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system is essential for both comfort and energy efficiency, impacting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+16.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $273,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $276,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $280,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $235,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+61.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,019 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.