106 Wilford · Castle Rock, WA 98645

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured public records · 233 Days on market

Built 1978 10,454 sqft lot $93/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional investment opportunity in a desirable location! This manufactured home sits on real property at the corner of a private, quiet road and offers access to the community boat launch — perfect for those who love peace, privacy, and proximity to the water. The property offers great potential for future development — buyer to verify the possibility of dividing the lot and confirm that two sewer mains remain available. Home has been moved twice; buyer to verify financing eligibility. Bring your vision and creativity to make the most of this unique property with outstanding potential!

Key facts

• Private quiet road
• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1978

Tags

• COMMUNITY BOAT LAUNCH
• PRIVATE QUIET ROAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.2% in Castle Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#209 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Toutle Lake School District (rural): math 43% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #123 of 291 in WA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $139k implies a 3210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.04%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,544
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -63.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
350 Streeter Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+8%)	9mo	$379,000	$236	76
108 Rogers Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-6%)	22mo	$403,750	$288	68
154 Shenandoah Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+13%)	12mo	$410,000	$244	46
172 Hall Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-6%)	24mo	$330,000	$235	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $8,487
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $47,180
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98645

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $592/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,058

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $566	-5% $527	+0% $488	+5% $448	+10% $409
Rent	-10% $355	-5% $422	+0% $488	+5% $554	+10% $620
Rate	-1.0pp $558	-0.5pp $523	base $488	+0.5pp $452	+1.0pp $415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 231 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 230 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 227 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 226 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 218 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-03-14
    price $139,000 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Exceptional investment opportunity in a desirable location! This manufactured home sits on real property at the corner of a private, quiet road and offers access to the community boat launch — perfect for those who love peace, privacy, and proximity to the water. The property offers great potential for future development — buyer to verify the possibility of dividing the lot and confirm that two sewer mains remain available. Home has been moved twice; buyer to verify financing eligibility. Bring your vision and creativity to make the most of this unique property with outstanding potential!

18. 2026-03-14
    price $139,000

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Exceptional investment opportunity in a desirable location! This manufactured home sits on real property at the corner of a private, quiet road and offers access to the community boat launch — perfect for those who love peace, privacy, and proximity to the water. The property offers great potential for future development — buyer to verify the possibility of dividing the lot and confirm that two sewer mains remain available. Home has been moved twice; buyer to verify financing eligibility. Bring your vision and creativity to make the most of this unique property with outstanding potential!

19. 2025-10-30
    listed $159,000 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Exceptional investment opportunity in a desirable location! This manufactured home sits on real property at the corner of a private, quiet road and offers access to the community boat launch — perfect for those who love peace, privacy, and proximity to the water. The property offers great potential for future development — buyer to verify the possibility of dividing the lot and confirm that two sewer mains remain available. Home has been moved twice; buyer to verify financing eligibility. Bring your vision and creativity to make the most of this unique property with outstanding potential!

20. 2025-10-30
    listed $159,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Exceptional investment opportunity in a desirable location! This manufactured home sits on real property at the corner of a private, quiet road and offers access to the community boat launch — perfect for those who love peace, privacy, and proximity to the water. The property offers great potential for future development — buyer to verify the possibility of dividing the lot and confirm that two sewer mains remain available. Home has been moved twice; buyer to verify financing eligibility. Bring your vision and creativity to make the most of this unique property with outstanding potential!

21. 1993-05-18
    soldstatus $4,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $592 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,362 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$771/yr (+$64/mo · 130.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$592
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $3,775
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$906
• After-tax cash flow: $4,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toutle Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 5309030
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,758
• Composite: 46.8/100
• National rank: #5220
• State rank: #123 of 291 in WA

Livability — Castle Rock

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #5888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,195

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Iranian 9% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.57%
• Current HPI: 246.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+3209.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $139,000 RMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $139,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Listed $159,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-30 Listed $159,000 RMLS
• 1993-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $4,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $592 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.