12900 Walden Rd #411 · Conroe, TX 77356

$99,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 618 sqft · Condo · 91 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition $161/sqft · 7% below area Est $107k · 7% under $311/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ground level condo at Walden on Lake Conroe near the golf course. Easy access with no steps and close parking. Open layout with natural light, well-appointed kitchen, and peaceful golf course views from the private back patio. Community pool for resort-style living. Located near Walden's Golf Course, golf club/restaurant and driving range. Ideal for everyday living or weekend retreat. Perfect for family guest condo. BRING US A OFFER!

Key facts

• Easy access
• Ground level condo
• Community pool

Tags

• GROUND LEVEL CONDO
• PRIVATE BACK PATIO
• COMMUNITY POOL
• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-435/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $94k (5.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,545 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,985
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: -7.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-21,790
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-34,891
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,492/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$311
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,264

Max offer price $94,260

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13151 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	521	$959	$1.84	2d	1	0.40mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $311 · $3,732/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,500 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    listed $99,500 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Ground level condo at Walden on Lake Conroe near the golf course. Easy access with no steps and close parking. Open layout with natural light, well-appointed kitchen, and peaceful golf course views from the private back patio. Community pool for resort-style living. Located near Walden's Golf Course, golf club/restaurant and driving range. Ideal for everyday living or weekend retreat. Perfect for family guest condo. BRING US A OFFER!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,492
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,170
• − Management: −$1,170
• − HOA: −$3,732
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable loss: −$1,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$458
• After-tax cash flow: $24/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This ground-level condo is in good condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. It offers a good layout and natural light, making it an ideal property for everyday living or weekend retreats.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen countertops — Light wear and tear on countertops.
• Minor bathroom walls — Some discoloration on bathroom walls.
• Minor kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear on kitchen cabinets.
• Minor landscaping — Overgrown areas and lack of curb appeal.
• Minor exterior paint — Some areas of exterior siding show signs of wear and tear.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value of the property.
• Both Replace countertops — New countertops can improve the functionality and aesthetic appeal of the kitchen.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape can significantly increase the property's curb appeal and value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the property, which can positively impact both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen countertops · Light wear and tear on countertops.	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom walls · Some discoloration on bathroom walls.	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen cabinets · Light wear and tear on kitchen cabinets.	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · Overgrown areas and lack of curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior paint · Some areas of exterior siding show signs of wear and tear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$2,500–15,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value of the property. ↑
• Both Replace countertops — New countertops can improve the functionality and aesthetic appeal of the kitchen. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape can significantly increase the property's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the property, which can positively impact both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $99,500 HARMLS