Hanover Plan · Apison, TN 37302

$385,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,804 sqft · SingleFamily · 112 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Hanover floorplan, which is available at Prairie Pass Express in Apison, TN, is one of D. R. Horton's most popular floorplans. The foyer opens into an open-concept main level, which features a spacious kitchen with a pantry and an island with countertop seating that overlooks a dining and living area. Additionally, the downstairs features a half bathroom and a flex room, which could be used as a formal dining space or an office. Upstairs, there is a loft that provides extra space for work and play. The primary bedroom boasts a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while three additional bedrooms share a comfortable bathroom. For convenience, there is also a laundry room upstairs.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Loft
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PANTRY
• ISLAND WITH COUNTERTOP SEATING
• FLEX ROOM
• LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $385,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $504,041.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $386k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-920 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $324k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#106 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Apison Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #47 of 952 statewide, top 5%, 652 students, 0% FRL); Sequoyah High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #273 of 332 statewide, top 84%, 226 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $324,497 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.82%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $504,041
• List price: $385,990
• Delta: -23.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10704 Prairie Lake Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,804 (0%)	1mo	$402,050	$143	97
3309 Grassy Fields Ln	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,938 (+5%)	5mo	$487,000	$166	84
10822 Prairie Lake Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,650 (-6%)	6mo	$405,000	$153	76
1736 Gable Green Dr #36	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,677 (-4%)	1mo	$570,000	$213	70
1736 Gable Green Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,677 (-4%)	1mo	$570,000	$213	70
10769 Upland Drive Dr	0.07mi	4/3.5	3,142 (+12%)	4mo	$471,555	$150	70
10757 Upland Dr	0.06mi	4/3.5	3,142 (+12%)	4mo	$450,000	$143	70
10834 Upland Dr	0.23mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,618 (-7%)	6mo	$399,035	$152	64
3297 Grassland Cir #7	0.55mi	4/3.5	3,000 (+7%)	2mo	$634,900	$212	57
3155 Grassland Cir	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,650 (-6%)	6mo	$625,000	$236	56
3544 Morning Dew Cv	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,506 (-11%)	1mo	$520,000	$208	47
3528 Morning Dew Cv	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,498 (-11%)	6mo	$463,000	$185	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-140,209
• Equity at exit: $75,154

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-197,326
• Equity at exit: $43,580

Cash invested: $141,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.9 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $497,990 ($195/sqft)
• Median days on market: 115 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37302

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,643
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$630 /mo · $7,561/yr
• Insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$681
• Net cashflow: $-920

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,409

Max offer price $370,946

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-571	-5% $-746	+0% $-920	+5% $-1,094	+10% $-1,268
Rent	-10% $-1,176	-5% $-1,048	+0% $-920	+5% $-792	+10% $-663
Rate	-1.0pp $-666	-0.5pp $-792	base $-920	+0.5pp $-1,050	+1.0pp $-1,183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,010
• Closing costs: $15,121
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10811 Upland Dr Apison, TN	5.0	4.5	3411	$3,400	$1.00	63d	1	0.18mi
3729 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	5.0	3.5	2618	$3,000	$1.15	63d	1	0.83mi
3753 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,995	$1.38	63d	1	0.83mi
1408 Centerstone Ln Apison, TN	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,875	$1.29	63d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price: $385,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction — Hanover planLiving area approximately 2804Address: Apison, TN (10724 Prairie Lake Dr)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living areas (standard for new construction Plan: Hanover)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $385,990 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $385,990 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $385,990 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $385,990 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $385,990 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $385,990 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $385,990 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $385,990 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $385,990 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $385,990 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $385,990 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $385,990 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $385,990 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $385,990 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $385,990 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $385,990 Active 89 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $385,990 Active 88 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $385,990 Active 87 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $385,990 Active 86 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $385,990 Active 85 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $385,990 Active 84 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $385,990 Active 83 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $385,990 Active 82 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $385,990 Active 81 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $385,990 Active 80 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $385,990 Active 79 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $385,990 Active 78 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $385,990 Active 77 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $385,990 Active 76 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $385,990 Active 75 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $385,990 Active 74 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $385,990 Active 73 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $385,990 Active 72 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $385,990 Active 71 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $385,990 Active 70 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $385,990 Active 69 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $385,990 Active 67 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $385,990 Active 65 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $385,990 Active 64 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $385,990 Active 61 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $385,990 Active 60 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $385,990 Active 59 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $385,990 Active 58 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $385,990 Active 56 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $385,990 Active 53 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $385,990 Active 52 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $385,990 Active 51 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $385,990 Active 50 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $385,990 Active 47 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $385,990 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,234
• − Property taxes: −$7,561
• − Insurance: −$2,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,115
• − Management: −$3,115
• − Depreciation: −$14,663
• Taxable loss: −$20,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,864
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Hanover floorplan is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Apison Elementary School B TN #47/952 Nat'l #5,998/41,679 Middle East Hamilton Middle School C- TN #24/333 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High East Hamilton High School F TN #39/332 Nat'l #9,567/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Apison

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #10827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apison, TN
• County: Hamilton · 393,784 people
• City population: 5,253
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,253
• Household income: $103,578
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 5% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.96%
• Current HPI: 294.8398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price: $385,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction — Hanover planLiving area approximately 2804Address: Apison, TN (10724 Prairie Lake Dr)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living areas (standard for new construction Plan: Hanover)