Hanover Plan · Apison, TN 37302

$385,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,804 sqft · SingleFamily · 204 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Hanover floorplan, which is available at Prairie Pass Express in Apison, TN, is one of D. R. Horton's most popular floorplans. The foyer opens into an open-concept main level, which features a spacious kitchen with a pantry and an island with countertop seating that overlooks a dining and living area. Additionally, the downstairs features a half bathroom and a flex room, which could be used as a formal dining space or an office. Upstairs, there is a loft that provides extra space for work and play. The primary bedroom boasts a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while three additional bedrooms share a comfortable bathroom. For convenience, there is also a laundry room upstairs.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Loft
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PANTRY
• ISLAND WITH COUNTERTOP SEATING
• FLEX ROOM
• LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $385,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $504,048.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $386k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#106 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Apison Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #47 of 952 statewide, top 5%, 652 students, 0% FRL); Sequoyah High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #273 of 332 statewide, top 84%, 226 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $304,763 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.15%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $504,048
• List price: $385,990
• Delta: -23.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10704 Prairie Lake Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,804 (0%)	4mo	$402,050	$143	94
10645 Prairie Lake Drive Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,804 (0%)	0mo	$397,280	$142	91
3309 Grassy Fields Ln	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,938 (+5%)	8mo	$487,000	$166	81
1778 Gable Green Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,760 (-2%)	0mo	$450,000	$163	74
1736 Gable Green Dr #36	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,677 (-4%)	4mo	$570,000	$213	68
1736 Gable Green Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,677 (-4%)	4mo	$570,000	$213	67
10769 Upland Drive Dr	0.07mi	4/3.5	3,142 (+12%)	7mo	$471,555	$150	67
10757 Upland Dr	0.06mi	4/3.5	3,142 (+12%)	7mo	$450,000	$143	67
3650 Stickley Way	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,511 (-10%)	1mo	$512,000	$204	59
3297 Grassland Cir #7	0.55mi	4/3.5	3,000 (+7%)	5mo	$634,900	$212	55
3544 Morning Dew Cv	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,506 (-11%)	4mo	$520,000	$208	45
10545 E Brainerd Rd	0.67mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,000 (+7%)	3mo	$552,000	$184	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-150,146
• Equity at exit: $75,155

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-218,781
• Equity at exit: $43,581

Cash invested: $141,134 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 48 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.3 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $497,990 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 156 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37302

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,048 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,643
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$630 /mo · $7,561/yr
• Insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $-1,076

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,409

Max offer price $348,387

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-727	-5% $-902	+0% $-1,076	+5% $-1,250	+10% $-1,424
Rent	-10% $-1,317	-5% $-1,196	+0% $-1,076	+5% $-955	+10% $-835
Rate	-1.0pp $-822	-0.5pp $-948	base $-1,076	+0.5pp $-1,206	+1.0pp $-1,339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,012
• Closing costs: $15,121
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10811 Upland Dr Apison, TN	5.0	4.5	3411	$3,400	$1.00	154d	1	0.18mi
10815 Upland Dr Apison, TN	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,895	$1.29	8d	1	0.19mi
10815 Upland Dr Apison, TN	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,895	$1.29	15d	1	0.19mi
3729 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	5.0	3.5	2618	$3,000	$1.15	154d	1	0.83mi
3753 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,995	$1.38	154d	1	0.83mi
1408 Centerstone Ln Apison, TN	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,875	$1.29	0d	1	1.43mi
1408 Centerstone Ln Apison, TN	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,875	$1.29	5d	1	1.43mi
9842 Ramble Brook Ln Apison, TN	5.0	3.5	2581	$2,950	$1.14	24d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price: $385,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction — Hanover planLiving area approximately 2804Address: Apison, TN (10724 Prairie Lake Dr)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living areas (standard for new construction Plan: Hanover)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $385,990 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $385,990 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $385,990 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $385,990 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $385,990 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $385,990 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $385,990 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $385,990 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $385,990 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $385,990 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $385,990 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $385,990 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $385,990 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $385,990 Active 190 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $385,990 Active 189 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $385,990 Active 188 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $385,990 Active 187 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $385,990 Active 186 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $385,990 Active 185 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $385,990 Active 184 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $385,990 Active 183 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $385,990 Active 182 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $385,990 Active 181 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $385,990 Active 180 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $385,990 Active 179 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $385,990 Active 178 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $385,990 Active 177 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $385,990 Active 176 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $385,990 Active 175 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $385,990 Active 174 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $385,990 Active 173 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $385,990 Active 172 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $385,990 Active 171 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $385,990 Active 170 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $385,990 Active 169 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $385,990 Active 168 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $385,990 Active 167 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $385,990 Active 166 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $385,990 Active 165 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $385,990 Active 164 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $385,990 Active 163 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $385,990 Active 162 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $385,990 Active 161 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $385,990 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $385,990 Active 159 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $385,990 Active 158 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $385,990 Active 157 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $385,990 Active 156 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $385,990 Active 155 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $385,990 Active 153 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,235
• − Property taxes: −$7,561
• − Insurance: −$2,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,926
• − Management: −$2,926
• − Depreciation: −$14,663
• Taxable loss: −$22,259
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,342
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Hanover floorplan is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Apison Elementary School B TN #47/952 Nat'l #5,998/41,679 Middle East Hamilton Middle School C- TN #24/333 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High East Hamilton High School F TN #39/332 Nat'l #9,567/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Apison

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #10827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apison, TN
• County: Hamilton · 393,784 people
• City population: 5,253
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,253
• Household income: $103,578
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.96%
• Current HPI: 294.8398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveList price: $385,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction — Hanover planLiving area approximately 2804Address: Apison, TN (10724 Prairie Lake Dr)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living areas (standard for new construction Plan: Hanover)