438 Shore Rd · Somers Point, NJ 08244

$599,000

None bd · None ba · 1,795 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1900 Est $503k · 19% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained triplex in the heart of Somers Point. Great rental history with long term tenants. 1st fl front 1bd unit has porch & access to basement w/ washer/dryer. 2nd floor rear apt has large eat in kitchen and living room, tenant pays utilities, the efficiency has nice size kitchen and large living area w/ adorable newer bath. There is ample off street parking, with private rear yard. Turnkey property. Close to shopping, transportation, beaches, etc.

Key facts

• Light renovation
• Shore road location
• 3 parking spots

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING TRIPLEX
• SHORE ROAD LOCATION
• LIGHT RENOVATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not bank-owned/foreclosure (per listing)
• Financial info: Annual taxes reported (from listing): $7,806; Three total units (multifamily)

Exterior

• Parking: Exterior parking for three or more cars; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Property listed for sale
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer; Waterfront: No; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 150

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three 1-bedroom units
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Forced air heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-49k/yr) — negative.
• Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
• Cap rate -1.9% vs local median 2.8% in Somers Point — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#314 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, schools D-.
• Somers Point School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #423 of 472 in NJ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; list at $599k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.00% ✗
• Cap rate: -1.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -29.10%
• DSCR: -0.30
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $502,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 Shore Rd	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,691 (-6%)	3mo	$430,000	$254	85
36 W Johnson Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-5%)	3mo	$630,000	$371	80
127 W Cedar Ave	0.24mi	3/3.0	1,913 (+7%)	1mo	$585,750	$306	77
301 Bliss Ave	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,694 (-6%)	4mo	$585,000	$345	63
137 Gibbs Ave	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,713 (-5%)	4mo	$700,000	$409	63
206 Philadelphia Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,976 (+10%)	9mo	$415,000	$210	50
116 W Ocean Ave	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,034 (+13%)	1mo	$550,000	$270	49
111 W Ocean Ave	0.61mi	3/3.0	1,960 (+9%)	10mo	$515,000	$263	48
306 Buffalo Ave	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,950 (+9%)	14mo	$599,000	$307	48
426 Seventh Ave	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,620 (-10%)	15mo	$253,000	$156	45
183 Jordan Rd	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,039 (+14%)	4mo	$519,000	$255	41
508 W New Jersey Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,572 (-12%)	6mo	$440,000	$280	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -85.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.12×
• Total profit: $-356,194
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.84×
• Total profit: $-643,962
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08244

• Active inventory: 101

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $0 none
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$677 /mo · $8,125/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$0
• Net cashflow: $-4,068

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,149

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,729	-5% $-3,898	+0% $-4,068	+5% $-4,237	+10% $-4,407
Rent	-10% $-4,068	-5% $-4,068	+0% $-4,068	+5% $-4,068	+10% $-4,068
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,766	-0.5pp $-3,916	base $-4,068	+0.5pp $-4,223	+1.0pp $-4,381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $599,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 681-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $599,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,125 · $677/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,520 · $960/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,395/yr (+$283/mo · 41.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $0
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$8,125
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$0
• − Management: −$0
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$62,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,904
• After-tax cash flow: $-33,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somers Point School District
• NCES district ID: 3415030
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,191
• Composite: 18.66/100
• National rank: #8889
• State rank: #423 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Somers Point

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #9650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Somers Point, NJ
• City population: 10,611
• Population (ZIP): 10,611

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -340.51%
• Current HPI: 377.2289
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+379.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $599,000 SJSRMLS
• 2017-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $202,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $202,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-24 Sold (MLS) $202,000 SJSRMLS
• 2014-08-08 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2014-05-12 Listed $219,000 SJSRMLS
• 1994-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,125 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.