421 M St · Louisville, KY 40208

$185,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · MultiFamily · 154 Days on market

Built 1915 5,200 sqft lot Est $212k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

AMAZING DUPLEX OPPORTUNITY !!! Unit 1 is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath. Unit 2 is a 1 bedroom, 1 bath. Conveniently located just north of Churchill Downs. Lots of updates! Brand New Roof - AC units, Furnaces, and water heaters approx. 3 & 1/2 years old. Fantastic rental property - this duplex had the best cash flow of all of our rentals, we consistently got $1600/mo. from this building (and that was from a year ago). There is no sign in the yard. Seller/Owner is a licensed real estate agent in the state of Kentucky.

Key facts

• 5,200 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1915

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported as 1,914 (source: list agent); Lot approximately 0.12 acres (about 26 x 200)
• Financial info: Income details show each unit previously listed with rent of $1,150; Owner pays water and sewer; tenants are responsible for electric, gas, and cable
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (not covered)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Owner pays water and sewer; tenants pay electric, gas, and cable; One furnace
• Home design: Camelback architectural style; Property type is a duplex; Built in 1915
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; 1915 construction year
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on each level
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 bedrooms (3 on the 1st level, 1 on the 2nd level)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (2 on the 1st level, 1 on the 2nd level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Duplex layout with separate meters
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×3bd/2.0ba + 1×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $269/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 77 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,276/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 1136% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.74%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,454
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3006 S 3rd St	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,797 (-6%)	15mo	$200,000	$111	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $11,517
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $85,784
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40208

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,890/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,595

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 71%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	3	2	$1,247
1× unit	1	1	$1,029
Total (2 units)			$2,276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2718 S 5th St Louisville, KY	5.0	2.0	2196	$1,600	$0.73	12d	1	0.07mi
2718 S 3rd St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,800	$1.40	12d	1	0.14mi
2711 S 3rd St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	12d	1	0.18mi
2501 S 4th St Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	897	$6,345	$7.07	3d	1	0.35mi
510 Colorado Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,750	$1.17	23d	1	0.37mi
516 Colorado Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,800	$0.90	16d	1	0.37mi
3102 Grant Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,595	$1.00	23d	1	0.50mi
1147 Lincoln Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1323	$1,295	$0.98	3d	1	0.59mi
310 W Kenton St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,350	$1.04	23d	1	0.76mi
4007 Southern Pkwy Unit 1 Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1500	$1,395	$0.93	3d	1	0.88mi
2 Eutropia Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1367	$1,950	$1.43	17d	1	0.93mi
1505 Homeview Dr Louisville, KY	5.0	2.0	1949	$1,850	$0.95	16d	1	0.97mi
2125 Crittenden Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	17d	1	1.00mi
925 W Evelyn Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1520	$1,650	$1.09	23d	1	1.01mi
1501 Bellamy Pl Louisville, KY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1074	$2,676	$2.49	3d	1	1.08mi
523 Rawlings St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1296	$1,495	$1.15	12d	1	1.29mi
1445 S 2nd St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1290	$1,500	$1.16	14d	1	1.32mi
825 Parkway Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,600	$1.05	16d	1	1.45mi
4513 S 6th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1581	$2,650	$1.68	23d	1	1.48mi
1375 S 1st St Louisville, KY	4.0	3.0	2470	$2,400	$0.97	23d	1	1.49mi
1382 S 1st St Unit 1382-10 Carriage House Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    price $185,000
15. 2026-03-20
    price $189,500
16. 2026-03-20
    status Active
17. 2026-03-09
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2026-01-15
    listed $190,000 Active
19. 2025-05-06
    price $200,000
20. 2025-04-24
    price $215,000
21. 2022-07-13
    soldstatus $150,000
22. 2022-07-12
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    AMAZING DUPLEX OPPORTUNITY !!! Unit 1 is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath. Unit 2 is a 1 bedroom, 1 bath. Conveniently located just north of Churchill Downs. Lots of updates! Brand New Roof - AC units, Furnaces, and water heaters approx. 3 & 1/2 years old. Fantastic rental property - this duplex had the best cash flow of all of our rentals, we consistently got $1600/mo. from this building (and that was from a year ago). There is no sign in the yard. Seller/Owner is a licensed real estate agent in the state of Kentucky.

23. 2022-06-19
    status Pending 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    AMAZING DUPLEX OPPORTUNITY !!! Unit 1 is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath. Unit 2 is a 1 bedroom, 1 bath. Conveniently located just north of Churchill Downs. Lots of updates! Brand New Roof - AC units, Furnaces, and water heaters approx. 3 & 1/2 years old. Fantastic rental property - this duplex had the best cash flow of all of our rentals, we consistently got $1600/mo. from this building (and that was from a year ago). There is no sign in the yard. Seller/Owner is a licensed real estate agent in the state of Kentucky.

24. 2022-06-17
    listed $155,000 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    AMAZING DUPLEX OPPORTUNITY !!! Unit 1 is a 3 bedroom, 2 bath. Unit 2 is a 1 bedroom, 1 bath. Conveniently located just north of Churchill Downs. Lots of updates! Brand New Roof - AC units, Furnaces, and water heaters approx. 3 & 1/2 years old. Fantastic rental property - this duplex had the best cash flow of all of our rentals, we consistently got $1600/mo. from this building (and that was from a year ago). There is no sign in the yard. Seller/Owner is a licensed real estate agent in the state of Kentucky.

25. 2017-11-28
    soldstatus $43,000 Closed
26. 2017-11-16
    status Pending
27. 2017-08-22
    listed $79,950 Active
28. 2017-08-21
    price $69,950
29. 2017-08-21
    price $54,950
30. 2017-08-21
    price $64,950
31. 2017-08-21
    price $49,950
32. 2011-03-22
    historical
33. 2010-10-13
    listed $110,000
34. 2007-06-06
    soldstatus $84,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,890 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,890 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,890
• − Insurance: −$1,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $3,716
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$892
• After-tax cash flow: $5,561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 15,605
• Household income: $39,560
• Rent vs Own: 73.8% rent · 26.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1136.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 22% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.97%
• Current HPI: 240.6261
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+118.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $185,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $189,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-20 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-09 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $190,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $200,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $215,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-12 Sold (MLS) $150,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-06-19 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-06-17 Listed $155,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-11-28 Sold (MLS) $43,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-11-16 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2017-08-22 Listed $79,950 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-08-21 Price Changed $49,950 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-08-21 Price Changed $64,950 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-08-21 Price Changed $54,950 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-08-21 Price Changed $69,950 Metro Search MLS
• 2011-03-22 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2010-10-13 Listed $110,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,890 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.