1207 Long Leaf Pine St · Houston, TX 77336

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 0.32 ac lot $116/sqft · 14% below area Est $179k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 60 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 587 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.36%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,696
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -11.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,176
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $50,847
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 587
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,951/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $623	-5% $578	+0% $533	+5% $488	+10% $443
Rent	-10% $373	-5% $453	+0% $533	+5% $613	+10% $692
Rate	-1.0pp $613	-0.5pp $573	base $533	+0.5pp $492	+1.0pp $450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	1.02mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	2d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    listed $159,000 New
16. 2024-01-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,951 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,910 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$958/yr (+$80/mo · 49.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,951
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $4,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$979
• After-tax cash flow: $5,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It has a good exterior, foundation, and interior, and could benefit from some cosmetic updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value.
• Both Interior cleaning and staging — A clean and staged interior can attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A newer, more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers or renters.
• Both Adding a small front porch or patio — A welcoming outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for potential buyers or renters looking for a home with outdoor living space.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Interior cleaning and staging — A clean and staged interior can attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A newer, more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Adding a small front porch or patio — A welcoming outdoor space can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for potential buyers or renters looking for a home with outdoor living space. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $159,000 LERA
• 2024-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+123.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,951 · +123.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.