512 Mill Creek Resort Rd Lot #31 · Sherwood Shores, TX 75076

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · Land · 63 Days on market

Built 2002

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to lake life. This roomy 2 bd 2 bath large open concept single wide in the Mill Creek Resort Marina. Mill creek area is close to the islands to go and have a great lake experience. Great covered patio to sit and enjoy the morning coffee or beverages with your fellow lakers. Call and make your appt this comes fully furnished so bring your swim suit and enjoy your summer. Pack a sweat shirt and enjoy the spring coolness. Whatever your season you can have a great time at your own piece of lake life. You own the mobile home you lease the land from Mill Creek Marina $525.00 per month, you have to complete a lease application and be qualified from their office before you can finalize purchase. Owner is willing to owner finance depending on credit approval with 50% upfront and 9% interest and balloon at 5 years.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Covered patio
• Fully furnished

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• COVERED PATIO
• FULLY FURNISHED
• MILL CREEK RESORT MARINA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.8% in Sherwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,519 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pottsboro ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #288 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.58%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-561
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $23,887
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75076

• Home prices YoY: -17.3%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    listed $120,000 Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Welcome to lake life. This roomy 2 bd 2 bath large open concept single wide in the Mill Creek Resort Marina. Mill creek area is close to the islands to go and have a great lake experience. Great covered patio to sit and enjoy the morning coffee or beverages with your fellow lakers. Call and make your appt this comes fully furnished so bring your swim suit and enjoy your summer. Pack a sweat shirt and enjoy the spring coolness. Whatever your season you can have a great time at your own piece of lake life. You own the mobile home you lease the land from Mill Creek Marina $525.00 per month, you have to complete a lease application and be qualified from their office before you can finalize purchase. Owner is willing to owner finance depending on credit approval with 50% upfront and 9% interest and balloon at 5 years.

18. 2023-07-14
    soldstatus Closed 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Welcome to lake life. This roomy 2 bd 2 bath large open concept single wide in the Mill Creek resort marina. Mill creek area is close to the islands to go and have a great lake experience. Great covered patio to sit and enjoy the morning coffee or beverages with your fellow lakers. Call and make your appt this comes fully furnished so bring your swim suit and enjoy your summer. Pack a sweat shirt and enjoy the spring coolness. Whatever your season you can have a great time at your own piece of lake life.

19. 2023-07-01
    status Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Welcome to lake life. This roomy 2 bd 2 bath large open concept single wide in the Mill Creek resort marina. Mill creek area is close to the islands to go and have a great lake experience. Great covered patio to sit and enjoy the morning coffee or beverages with your fellow lakers. Call and make your appt this comes fully furnished so bring your swim suit and enjoy your summer. Pack a sweat shirt and enjoy the spring coolness. Whatever your season you can have a great time at your own piece of lake life.

20. 2023-06-10
    price $65,000 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Welcome to lake life. This roomy 2 bd 2 bath large open concept single wide in the Mill Creek resort marina. Mill creek area is close to the islands to go and have a great lake experience. Great covered patio to sit and enjoy the morning coffee or beverages with your fellow lakers. Call and make your appt this comes fully furnished so bring your swim suit and enjoy your summer. Pack a sweat shirt and enjoy the spring coolness. Whatever your season you can have a great time at your own piece of lake life.

21. 2023-04-14
    listed $80,000 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Welcome to lake life. This roomy 2 bd 2 bath large open concept single wide in the Mill Creek resort marina. Mill creek area is close to the islands to go and have a great lake experience. Great covered patio to sit and enjoy the morning coffee or beverages with your fellow lakers. Call and make your appt this comes fully furnished so bring your swim suit and enjoy your summer. Pack a sweat shirt and enjoy the spring coolness. Whatever your season you can have a great time at your own piece of lake life.

22. 2023-04-10
    historical
23. 2023-03-29
    listed $80,000 Active
24. 2002-09-16
    historical
25. 2002-09-16
    listed $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,747
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$419
• After-tax cash flow: $3,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pottsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835580
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $50,811
• Composite: 37.44/100
• National rank: #4414
• State rank: #288 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sherwood Shores

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1519
• US rank: #25941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,989
• Household income: $76,919
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Scottish 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.29%
• Current HPI: 244.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+60.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-07-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-06-10 Price Changed $65,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-14 Listed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-03-29 Listed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2002-09-16 Listed $74,900 NTREIS
• 2002-09-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS