9420 US Highway 301 Unit 5B-044 · Dade City, FL 33525

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured · 219 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2025 Good condition 2-car garage $71/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful 2024 home is built to last with Wind Zone II construction and boasts high-quality materials and craftsmanship throughout. Low-E insulated glass windows are designed to keep you comfortable year-round while being energy-efficient. The exterior includes vinyl lap siding and a 25-year algae-resistant roof for long-lasting reliability. The home also comes equipped with modern amenities like a Whirlpool stainless steel electric range, refrigerator with ice maker, and stylish ceramic tile backsplash in the kitchen. Inside, you'll find spacious rooms with seamless drywall, deluxe cove and baseboard trim, and plenty of closet space with built-in shelving.

Key facts

• Vinyl lap siding
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Tags

• WIND ZONE II CONSTRUCTION
• LOW-E INSULATED GLASS WINDOWS
• VINYL LAP SIDING
• 25-YEAR ALGAE-RESISTANT ROOF
• REFRIGERATOR WITH ICE MAKER
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 4.5% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 611 students, 70% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1044 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.12%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,000
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -54.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37466 Phelps Rd	1.27mi	3/2.0	1,404 (0%)	5mo	$310,000	$221	61
38710 Townsend Rd	1.27mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-3%)	4mo	$125,000	$91	57
37913 Wicklow Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+19%)	2mo	$295,000	$176	50
8465 Wheat Stone Dr	1.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+7%)	2mo	$299,990	$200	47
8511 Wheat Stone Dr	1.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+7%)	4mo	$314,990	$210	45
8540 Wheat Stone Dr	1.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+7%)	5mo	$312,620	$209	45
38313 Tea Rose Ave	1.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+7%)	11mo	$289,990	$194	40
38395 Tea Rose Ave	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+19%)	7mo	$294,990	$176	34
37107 Bailey Hill Dr	1.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (+17%)	2mo	$290,000	$176	34
38345 Tea Rose Ave	1.03mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+19%)	9mo	$297,990	$178	33
10136 Dusty Hill Loop	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,647 (+17%)	9mo	$365,000	$222	32
37729 Phelps Rd	0.93mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+22%)	11mo	$380,000	$223	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $18,199
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $60,279
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active
• Median asking: $94,900 ($68/sqft)
• Median days on market: 195 d
• This list price: 63% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +131.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1044
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $608	-5% $574	+0% $539	+5% $505	+10% $470
Rent	-10% $416	-5% $478	+0% $539	+5% $601	+10% $662
Rate	-1.0pp $589	-0.5pp $564	base $539	+0.5pp $513	+1.0pp $487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8313 Wheat Stone Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,275	$1.22	120d	1	1.26mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $99,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Utilities: Has heating
• Home design: Spec home — plan name: The GreenbrierActive listing
• Exterior features: Address: 9420 US Highway 301 Unit 5B-044, Dade City, FL 33525

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Living area of 1404

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-07-11
   days on market $99,900 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-07-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-07-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-07-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-07-06
   days on market $99,900 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-07-06
   days on market $99,900 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-07-05
   days on market $99,900 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-07-03
   days on market $99,900 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-07-03
   days on market $99,900 Active 210 DOM
10. 2026-07-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 209 DOM
11. 2026-06-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 208 DOM
12. 2026-06-29
    days on market $99,900 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-06-28
    days on market $99,900 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-06-27
    days on market $99,900 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-06-26
    days on market $99,900 Active 204 DOM
16. 2026-06-24
    days on market $99,900 Active 202 DOM
17. 2026-06-18
    days on market $99,900 Active 196 DOM
18. 2026-06-17
    days on market $99,900 Active 195 DOM
19. 2026-06-16
    days on market $99,900 Active 194 DOM
20. 2026-06-15
    days on market $99,900 Active 193 DOM
21. 2026-06-13
    days on market $99,900 Active 191 DOM
22. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,900 Active 187 DOM
23. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 186 DOM
24. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 185 DOM
25. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 182 DOM
26. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 181 DOM
27. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 180 DOM
28. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 179 DOM
29. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 178 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,494
• − Management: −$1,494
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $5,187
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,245
• After-tax cash flow: $5,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2024 manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some landscaping and painting to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can increase property value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial Elementary School D- FL #1,223/2,144 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle Centennial Middle School F FL #368/571 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $99,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Utilities: Has heating
• Home design: Spec home — plan name: The GreenbrierActive listing
• Exterior features: Address: 9420 US Highway 301 Unit 5B-044, Dade City, FL 33525

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Living area of 1404