1130 E Smith Cir · Paoli, IN 47454

$105,000

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2016 0.65 ac lot $78/sqft · at area comps

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

6 bedrooms, 4 full baths, and a finished basement. The home has recently caught fire and is being sold AS- IS. Seller is negotiable. There is lots of penitential, with 3 lots being conveyed. Cash or possibly a construction loan only.

Key facts

• 0.65 acre lot
• Built 2016
• Listed 82 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.0% in Paoli — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#471 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Paoli Community School Corporation (town): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #200 of 301 in IN (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Throop Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #577 of 994 statewide, top 59%, 712 students, 61% FRL); Paoli Jr & Sr High School (math 19% / reading 50%, grade F, #270 of 369 statewide, top 77%, 561 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.68%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,571
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -51.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $32,061
• Equity at exit: $43,464

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $86,578
• Equity at exit: $64,202

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47454

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,384 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,667/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $928

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $419	-5% $389	+0% $360	+5% $330	+10% $300
Rent	-10% $250	-5% $305	+0% $360	+5% $414	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $386	base $360	+0.5pp $333	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-03-31
    listed $145,000 Active 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    6 bedrooms, 4 full baths, and a finished basement. The home has recently caught fire and is being sold AS- IS. Seller is negotiable. There is lots of penitential, with 3 lots being conveyed. Cash or possibly a construction loan only.

19. 2021-07-28
    soldstatus $121,000
20. 2021-04-22
    soldstatus $121,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,667
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $2,818
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$676
• After-tax cash flow: $3,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paoli Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1808640
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,333
• Composite: 29.18/100
• National rank: #6571
• State rank: #200 of 301 in IN

Livability — Paoli

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #16678

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paoli, IN
• Population (ZIP): 7,529

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,948 people
• By 2030: 18,479 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 17,387 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 16,301 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 14,361 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 12,594 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.1% · R 75.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.2pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+45.8 2012: R+21.6 2008: R+14.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.36%
• Current HPI: 207.3937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+19.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $145,000 SIRA
• 2021-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,667 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.