16727 Sky Blue Ln · Houston, TX 77095

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1983 6,298 sqft lot $146/sqft · 10% below area Est $244k · 10% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Buyer and buyer's agent should verify all information, including but not limited to school information, taxes, HOA & Room dimensions. Location Location! this home is conveniently located just minutes away from retail stores, restaurants, grocery stores, schools and more. Roof replaced in 2024. Tons of potential just come and add your personal touch.

Key facts

• Retail stores
• Grocery stores
• Schools

Tags

• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• RETAIL STORES
• RESTAURANTS
• GROCERY STORES
• SCHOOLS
• ROOF REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-364 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $220k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,621 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.80%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,025
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -9.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7311 Barton Oaks Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,510 (0%)	1mo	$269,999	$179	80
7314 Skylight Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+3%)	1mo	$239,999	$154	79
7235 Sonnet Glen Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+6%)	1mo	$250,000	$156	78
7254 Sonnet Glen Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+6%)	1mo	$240,000	$150	76
6907 Renata Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,457 (-4%)	2mo	$243,000	$167	75
17002 Dew Drop Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-8%)	0mo	$220,000	$159	71
16210 Summer Dew Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,510 (0%)	4mo	$179,900	$119	70
16215 Summer Dawn Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,545 (+2%)	0mo	$259,900	$168	66
6715 Beck Canyon Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-10%)	0mo	$259,900	$191	65
17218 Valemist Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-8%)	2mo	$229,900	$165	64
16406 Maplemont Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-7%)	1mo	$242,000	$173	63
16346 Pebbleglen Dr Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+6%)	4mo	$219,000	$137	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.94% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-40,617
• Equity at exit: $53,658

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-52,479
• Equity at exit: $56,837

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77095

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,803 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$439 /mo · $5,268/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,264

Max offer price $155,621

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-239	-5% $-302	+0% $-364	+5% $-426	+10% $-488
Rent	-10% $-506	-5% $-435	+0% $-364	+5% $-293	+10% $-221
Rate	-1.0pp $-253	-0.5pp $-308	base $-364	+0.5pp $-421	+1.0pp $-479

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17169 Spencer Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,790	$1.64	12d	1	0.34mi
16550 Bouldgreen St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2237	$2,386	$1.07	44d	1	0.49mi
16222 Summer Dew Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,750	$1.25	13d	1	0.52mi
6777 Sommerall Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$1,959	$1.87	2d	35	0.60mi
17169 Farm to Market Road 529 Unit SNPS2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,790	$1.64	44d	1	0.63mi
7207 Glenbank Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,100	$1.01	44d	1	0.63mi
6700 Queenston Blvd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,394	$1.21	7d	1	0.65mi
6700 Queenston Blvd Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,386	$1.20	3d	1	0.65mi
6700 Queenston Blvd Unit 6757 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,418	$1.23	10d	1	0.65mi
6700 Queenston Blvd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,394	$1.21	5d	1	0.65mi
6700 Queenston Blvd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,429	$1.24	11d	1	0.65mi
6700 Queenston Blvd Unit 6737 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1267	$1,675	$1.32	44d	1	0.65mi
17211 Pleasant Lily Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,000	$1.06	44d	1	0.69mi
15910 Farm to Market Road 529 Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,310	$1.61	3d	32	0.72mi
7711 Thorncreek Way Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2085	$2,075	$1.00	7d	1	0.75mi
16811 Creek Trl Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,820	$1.22	44d	1	0.75mi
6706 Honey Harvest Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1873	$2,049	$1.09	44d	1	0.89mi
17039 Kemble Creek Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2000	$1,845	$0.92	44d	1	0.90mi
17503 Nordway Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1953	$1,729	$0.89	3d	1	0.90mi
6395 Crossway Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	2d	1	1.03mi
17019 Wilthorne Gardens Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,900	$1.04	44d	1	1.07mi
7202 Barker Cypress Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,829	$1.62	1d	36	1.09mi
17719 Glenpatti Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,669	$1.19	7d	1	1.10mi
15915 Kingfield Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$1,995	$2.37	3d	44	1.15mi
5926 Clerkenwell Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2119	$2,000	$0.94	44d	1	1.19mi
6356 Porterway Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,531	$1.34	24d	1	1.28mi
6013 Queenston Blvd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,208	$1.01	3d	1	1.33mi
6013 Queenston Blvd Unit 6046 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,025	$1.59	13d	1	1.33mi
18015 Autumn Hills Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2163	$2,050	$0.95	44d	1	1.34mi
6685 Kentwick Dr #210 Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,870	$1.04	7d	1	1.39mi
6329 Porterway Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,599	$1.40	44d	1	1.39mi
6316 Porterway Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,581	$1.38	2d	1	1.42mi
6427 Waldron Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1593	$1,900	$1.19	44d	1	1.43mi
17807 Northway Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,700	$1.49	44d	1	1.47mi
6407 Waldron Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1546	$1,800	$1.16	24d	1	1.48mi
8300 Queenston Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	973	$2,424	$2.49	13d	1	1.48mi
5703 Afton Ridge Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$1,896	$0.86	22d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,900 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $219,900 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Buyer and buyer's agent should verify all information, including but not limited to school information, taxes, HOA & Room dimensions. Location Location! this home is conveniently located just minutes away from retail stores, restaurants, grocery stores, schools and more. Roof replaced in 2024. Tons of potential just come and add your personal touch.

16. 2026-02-27
    price $259,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Buyer and buyer's agent should verify all information, including but not limited to school information, taxes, HOA & Room dimensions. Location Location! this home is conveniently located just minutes away from retail stores, restaurants, grocery stores, schools and more. Roof replaced in 2024. Tons of potential just come and add your personal touch.

17. 2026-02-25
    listed $219,900 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Buyer and buyer's agent should verify all information, including but not limited to school information, taxes, HOA & Room dimensions. Location Location! this home is conveniently located just minutes away from retail stores, restaurants, grocery stores, schools and more. Roof replaced in 2024. Tons of potential just come and add your personal touch.

18. 2023-07-03
    soldstatus
19. 2023-06-30
    soldstatus Sold 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    Click the Virtual Tour link to view the 3D walkthrough. Welcome home! This single story home checks off all the boxes! Relax at the end of the day in the living room that features new carpet and a beautiful floor to ceiling brick fireplace to keep you cozy in the winter. The kitchen offers plenty of storage space with freshly painted white cabinets, brand new quartz counters and a large pantry! Retreat into the primary bedroom that boasts brand new carpet, a spacious walk-in closet and en-suite bath with a built-in vanity. Spend your evenings and weekends entertaining on your wood deck, covered patio and huge backyard! There is a even a shed for extra storage or a workshop! Just minutes away from retail stores, restaurants, and grocery stores. Start Packing!

20. 2023-05-28
    status Pending 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    Click the Virtual Tour link to view the 3D walkthrough. Welcome home! This single story home checks off all the boxes! Relax at the end of the day in the living room that features new carpet and a beautiful floor to ceiling brick fireplace to keep you cozy in the winter. The kitchen offers plenty of storage space with freshly painted white cabinets, brand new quartz counters and a large pantry! Retreat into the primary bedroom that boasts brand new carpet, a spacious walk-in closet and en-suite bath with a built-in vanity. Spend your evenings and weekends entertaining on your wood deck, covered patio and huge backyard! There is a even a shed for extra storage or a workshop! Just minutes away from retail stores, restaurants, and grocery stores. Start Packing!

21. 2023-05-23
    status Option Pending 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    Click the Virtual Tour link to view the 3D walkthrough. Welcome home! This single story home checks off all the boxes! Relax at the end of the day in the living room that features new carpet and a beautiful floor to ceiling brick fireplace to keep you cozy in the winter. The kitchen offers plenty of storage space with freshly painted white cabinets, brand new quartz counters and a large pantry! Retreat into the primary bedroom that boasts brand new carpet, a spacious walk-in closet and en-suite bath with a built-in vanity. Spend your evenings and weekends entertaining on your wood deck, covered patio and huge backyard! There is a even a shed for extra storage or a workshop! Just minutes away from retail stores, restaurants, and grocery stores. Start Packing!

22. 2023-05-10
    listed $250,000 Active 771-char remark

    Show marketing remark (771 chars)

    Click the Virtual Tour link to view the 3D walkthrough. Welcome home! This single story home checks off all the boxes! Relax at the end of the day in the living room that features new carpet and a beautiful floor to ceiling brick fireplace to keep you cozy in the winter. The kitchen offers plenty of storage space with freshly painted white cabinets, brand new quartz counters and a large pantry! Retreat into the primary bedroom that boasts brand new carpet, a spacious walk-in closet and en-suite bath with a built-in vanity. Spend your evenings and weekends entertaining on your wood deck, covered patio and huge backyard! There is a even a shed for extra storage or a workshop! Just minutes away from retail stores, restaurants, and grocery stores. Start Packing!

23. 2000-05-03
    soldstatus
24. 2000-04-01
    soldstatus $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,268 · $439/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,268 · $439/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$5,268
• − Insurance: −$1,897
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,731
• − Management: −$1,731
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$8,161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,959
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,767
• Household income: $91,594
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Current HPI: 236.0249
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+175.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2023-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-05-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-05-10 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2000-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,268 · -12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.