3116 Wells Beach Rd · Holley, FL 32566

$164,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1970 0.53 ac lot Est $137k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This trailer sits on a double lot. It is zoned for mixed use residential and perfect for a builder or investor. The lot is not currently sub divided. Located just one mile from the Live Oak Street Dock boat ramp, this property offers easy water access while being close to shopping, schools, and Navarre Beach.

Key facts

• Easy water access
• Zoned for mixed use
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• ZONED FOR MIXED USE
• EASY WATER ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.53 acre (dimensions ~170 x 135)
• HOA & community: Subdivision: N/A

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story; Built in 1970; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Year built: 1970
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Dining area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $417 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.2% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#698 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Holley-Navarre Primary (771 students, 41% FRL); Navarre High School (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 2,406 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 768 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $165k implies a 1549% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,059 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.84%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,016
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3338 Bob Tolbert Rd	0.47mi	2/2.0	840 (+6%)	0mo	$145,000	$173	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-680
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $31,453
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32566

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 768
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $583/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $417

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,243

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-02-21
    listed $164,900 Active
17. 1987-02-01
    soldstatus $10,000
18. 1986-09-01
    soldstatus $18,750
19. 1986-09-01
    soldstatus $18,750
20. 1986-09-01
    soldstatus $13,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $583 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,369 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$786/yr (+$65/mo · 134.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$583
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable income: $2,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$579
• After-tax cash flow: $4,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #14641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holley, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,883
• Household income: $105,551
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.87%
• Current HPI: 298.6821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+779.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $164,900 ECAR
• 1987-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1986-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,300 Public Records
• 1986-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,750 Public Records
• 1986-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $583 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.