21 Richmond Ct Unit A · New York, NY 10303

$450,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 111 Days on market

Built 1999 1,570 sqft lot Est $534k · 16% under $331/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

END UNIT TOWNHOUSE STYLE CONDO,FEATURES A LARGE LIVING/DINING RM,MODERN KIT,FULL BATH,2 GOOD SIZED BEDROOMS ON 2ND FLOOR,HUGE MASTER BR & FB,ATTIC STORAGE ON 3RD FLR. Level 1: LR,KIT,DINETTE,MAIN BATH,2BRS. Level 2: MSTR BR,1/2 BATH. Basement: NONE.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Move-in-ready duplex
• Smart duplex design

Tags

• MOVE-IN-READY DUPLEX
• WELL-DESIGNED LIVING SPACE
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SMART DUPLEX DESIGN
• ASSIGNED PARKING SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Dome property management; Monthly HOA fee of $331.60; HOA covers water, outside maintenance, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: 110V electric service; Water service included in association fees
• Home design: Single-story property; Built circa 2005; Aluminum siding; Zoned R3A
• Construction: Approximate year built 2005; Aluminum siding construction
• Exterior features: Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One three-quarter bathroom (total: two bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $426k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $415k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $410k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 480 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,145/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 1198% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($410k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $450k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $409,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.58%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $534,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Grandview Ave	0.04mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,470 (-2%)	3mo	$475,000	$323	86
60 Northfield Ct	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,391 (-7%)	1mo	$550,000	$395	76
10 South Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,672 (+12%)	4mo	$525,000	$314	69
11 Coonley Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-6%)	2mo	$423,000	$300	69
138 Union Ave	0.57mi	3/3.5	1,504 (+0%)	0mo	$765,000	$509	67
136 Union Ave	0.57mi	3/3.5	1,475 (-2%)	1mo	$730,000	$495	64
176 Arlington Pl	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-10%)	4mo	$480,000	$356	62
36 Lockman Ave	0.27mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,360 (-9%)	5mo	$560,000	$412	60
221 South Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,326 (-12%)	2mo	$330,000	$249	60
13 Coonley Ct	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (-6%)	3mo	$400,000	$284	59
70 Gridley Ave	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,300 (-13%)	2mo	$580,000	$446	39
133 Van Pelt Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,704 (+14%)	5mo	$540,000	$317	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-83,229
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-85,013
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10303

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,145 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$562 /mo · $6,750/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$331
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$871
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,356

Max offer price $425,972

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $-11	+0% $-166	+5% $-322	+10% $-477
Rent	-10% $-494	-5% $-330	+0% $-166	+5% $-2	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $-52	base $-166	+0.5pp $-283	+1.0pp $-401

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Glenn Zamorski DR Lot Glenn Elizabethport, NJ	3.0	2.0	1550	$7,000	$4.52	0d	1	1.12mi
76 Port Ave Unit 2 Elizabethport, NJ	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,799	$2.24	22d	1	1.14mi
76 Port Ave #1 Elizabethport, NJ	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,750	$2.16	6d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $331 · $3,972/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $450,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $450,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-03-02
    listed $450,000 Active
14. 2005-03-11
    soldstatus $200,000 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    END UNIT TOWNHOUSE STYLE CONDO,FEATURES A LARGE LIVING/DINING RM,MODERN KIT,FULL BATH,2 GOOD SIZED BEDROOMS ON 2ND FLOOR,HUGE MASTER BR & FB,ATTIC STORAGE ON 3RD FLR. Level 1: LR,KIT,DINETTE,MAIN BATH,2BRS. Level 2: MSTR BR,1/2 BATH. Basement: NONE.

15. 2004-09-29
    listed $207,000 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    END UNIT TOWNHOUSE STYLE CONDO,FEATURES A LARGE LIVING/DINING RM,MODERN KIT,FULL BATH,2 GOOD SIZED BEDROOMS ON 2ND FLOOR,HUGE MASTER BR & FB,ATTIC STORAGE ON 3RD FLR. Level 1: LR,KIT,DINETTE,MAIN BATH,2BRS. Level 2: MSTR BR,1/2 BATH. Basement: NONE.

16. 2004-01-24
    soldstatus $169,600 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BDRM TOWNHOUSE Level 1: LIV RM,DR,KIT COMBO Level 2: BDRM,BDRM,FULL BATH Level 3: MSTR BDRM W/3/4 BATH.

17. 2003-05-01
    listed $169,000 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BDRM TOWNHOUSE Level 1: LIV RM,DR,KIT COMBO Level 2: BDRM,BDRM,FULL BATH Level 3: MSTR BDRM W/3/4 BATH.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,750
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,979
• − Management: −$3,979
• − HOA: −$3,972
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$9,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,276
• After-tax cash flow: $284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Richmond County · 404,174 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,497
• Household income: $83,947
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1198.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 482,784 people
• By 2030: 481,831 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 473,159 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 457,242 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 408,029 · -15.5%
• By 2100: 341,459 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 33% Two or more races 17% White 15% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.8) · D 35.1% · R 64.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.7pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -29.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.8 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+16.8 2012: D+0.8 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.86%
• Current HPI: 369.2771
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+166.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $450,000 SIBORMLS
• 2005-03-11 Sold (MLS) $200,000 SIBORMLS
• 2004-09-29 Listed $207,000 SIBORMLS
• 2004-01-24 Sold (MLS) $169,600 SIBORMLS
• 2003-05-01 Listed $169,000 SIBORMLS