804 Walnut Dr · West Memphis, AR 72301

$75,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1969 Est $148k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Need work

Key facts

• Built 1969
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $785 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 7.0% in West Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#413 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• West Memphis School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 238 in AR (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 69 units permitted in Crittenden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crittenden County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $75k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.88%
• DSCR: 3.00
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
912 Mimosa Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-2%)	8mo	$160,000	$125	78
805 Walnut Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,362 (+5%)	10mo	$155,000	$114	76
811 Maple Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,326 (+2%)	7mo	$150,000	$113	74
412 Auburn Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+2%)	10mo	$150,000	$113	65
506 Princeton Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-8%)	10mo	$153,500	$128	65
402 Oxford St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-8%)	5mo	$160,000	$133	63
1404 Elijah St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,284 (-1%)	10mo	$147,000	$114	57
1003 Mimosa Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,479 (+14%)	8mo	$165,000	$112	54
508 Oxford St	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (+14%)	5mo	$170,000	$115	54
190 Anna Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-5%)	10mo	$119,900	$97	50
236 Anna Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-8%)	10mo	$143,000	$120	49
510 Auburn Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,439 (+11%)	12mo	$45,500	$32	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $37,868
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $97,369
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72301

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $549/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $785

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
905 Maple Dr West Memphis, AR	4.0	2.0	1176	$1,699	$1.44	1d	1	0.27mi
905 Maple Dr West Memphis, AR	4.0	2.0	1176	$1,495	$1.27	23d	1	0.27mi
911 N Avalon St Unit Future applicants West Memphis, AR	2.0	2.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $75,000 Active
15. 1985-12-01
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $549 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $549 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$549
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,526
• − Management: −$1,526
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $8,716
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,092
• After-tax cash flow: $7,334/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Memphis School District
• NCES district ID: 0508040
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $29,382
• Composite: 12.22/100
• National rank: #9647
• State rank: #224 of 238 in AR

Livability — West Memphis

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #23638

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Memphis, AR
• City population: 24,182
• Population (ZIP): 24,182

Population outlook (Crittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,254 people
• By 2030: 42,953 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -15.5%
• By 2050: 33,670 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,315 · -46.3%
• By 2100: 17,173 · -62.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crittenden

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 47.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: 14.7pp · 2024: 2.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.3 2020: D+7.2 2016: D+9.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.63%
• Current HPI: 182.7665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+134.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $75,000 FSBO.com
• 1985-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $549 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.