1508 Canadian Dr · Mount Vernon, TX 75480

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1999 0.35 ac lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home or weekend retreat within the beautiful Pine Valley Development on Lake Cypress Springs, 2 Bedroom/1 bath split-level custom built home by current owner with plenty of open living areas to enjoy views of the outdoors. Large second level deck accessible from the upstairs loft and exterior stairway that overlooks a tree filled back yard. Separate apartment with full bath and kitchenette adjoining the carport. Enjoy all the amenities such as swimming pool, tennis courts, playground, clubhouse, boat ramp, as well as the security and safety of a gated community.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Kitchenette
• Separate apartment

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• SEPARATE APARTMENT
• FULL BATH
• KITCHENETTE
• SWIMMING POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided to Pine Valley subdivision
• Financial info: Selling terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Pine Valley); HOA fee $1,200 annually; HOA includes full use of facilities; Community features: boat ramp, campground, clubhouse, community dock, community pool, gated community, playground, RV parking, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Covered/Carport parking for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Aerobic septic; Cable available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two stories; Entry level: main
• Construction: Built in 1999; Brick and siding exterior; Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Interior lot with many trees; Subdivision setting; Water/lake view; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Additional bedroom on main level; Loft on second level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Kitchen island; Natural woodwork; Two living areas; One dining area; Total room count: 4; Two levels

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 1.5% in Mount Vernon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#190 in TX, #4,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mount Vernon ISD (town): math 49% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #251 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mt Vernon El (math 47% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 610 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,459,488
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
329 Hickory Hill Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,895 (-14%)	7mo	$1,369,000	$722	30
222 King Louis Ct	0.72mi	2/2.5	2,034 (-8%)	23mo	$610,000	$300	28
56 Neches Ct	0.53mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,496 (+13%)	21mo	$1,650,000	$661	23
1107 King Lake Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,468 (+12%)	23mo	$1,590,000	$644	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $55,437
• Equity at exit: $106,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $157,591
• Equity at exit: $184,574

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75480

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,423/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,919

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $230	+0% $177	+5% $125	+10% $72
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $92	+0% $177	+5% $262	+10% $346
Rate	-1.0pp $270	-0.5pp $224	base $177	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 687-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $185,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,423 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,423 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,717
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$4,423
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $2,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Vernon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831770
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,788
• Composite: 39.19/100
• National rank: #4021
• State rank: #251 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mount Vernon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #190
• US rank: #4869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,787

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,621 people
• By 2030: 10,648 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 10,629 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 10,486 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 10,038 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 8,816 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% German 7% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -52.5pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+52.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.13%
• Current HPI: 234.5679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2019-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-16 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2019-07-02 Listed $139,000 GTAR
• 2018-02-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-02-08 Listed $172,900 NTREIS
• 1990-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,423 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.