628 Blair Ct · Toledo, OH 43604

$39,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1917 1,600 sqft lot Est $41k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT FIRST HOME! STREET HAS LITTLE TRAFFIC!! THREE BEDROOMS, FULL BASEMENT, NICE FRONT PORCH. EASY TO SEE. CALL NOW!! PROPERTY BEING SOLD "AS IS"

Key facts

• 1,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1917
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water; Sanitary sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two levels (2 stories); No attached units; No common walls
• Construction: Other construction materials; Block foundation; Built as existing single-family home
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (10 x 11)
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 on upper level (8 x 10); Bedroom 3 on upper level (9 x 11)
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (other type); Has cooling (other type)
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Basement; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Laundry (other features)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $757 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.6% vs local median 7.7% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Riverside Elementary School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,471 of 1,584 statewide, top 95%, 361 students, 0% FRL); Woodward High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #726 of 781 statewide, top 94%, 672 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 72% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,297/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($21k/yr) (locally 693% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($270 loan paydown + $917 appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $39k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,415 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.15%
• DSCR: 4.70
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $40,638
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
718 Buffalo St	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+6%)	12mo	$45,000	$41	77
1411 N Erie St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,010 (-3%)	10mo	$25,000	$25	69
1919 N Ontario St	0.31mi	3/1.0	890 (-15%)	8mo	$27,000	$30	54
832 Stickney Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-14%)	10mo	$35,000	$39	54
813 Galena St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	990 (-5%)	15mo	$14,000	$14	53
417 Cincinnati St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,130 (+8%)	11mo	$61,330	$54	44
1313 N Erie St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	886 (-15%)	10mo	$39,000	$44	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $51,588
• Equity at exit: $16,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.0%
• Equity multiple: 11.79×
• Total profit: $117,827
• Equity at exit: $23,814

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43604

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $339

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $779	-5% $768	+0% $757	+5% $746	+10% $735
Rent	-10% $654	-5% $705	+0% $757	+5% $808	+10% $859
Rate	-1.0pp $776	-0.5pp $767	base $757	+0.5pp $747	+1.0pp $736

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1449 N Huron St Toledo, OH	4.0	2.0	1430	$1,045	$0.73	16d	1	0.34mi
1951 N Summit St Unit 2 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	835	$800	$0.96	46d	1	0.35mi
630 Mulberry St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	25d	1	0.51mi
1119 N Summit St Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$1,750	$1.71	16d	2	0.70mi
1119 N Summit St Toledo, OH	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,750	$1.43	25d	1	0.71mi
1119 N Summit St Toledo, OH	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,890	$1.26	46d	1	0.71mi
1031 N Michigan St Toledo, OH	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,195	$0.80	25d	1	0.75mi
1964 Burr St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1159	$1,250	$1.08	46d	1	0.82mi
128 Carbon St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,200	$1.08	25d	1	0.84mi
1337 Moore St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1194	$995	$0.83	23d	1	0.87mi
1848 Genesee St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,200	$1.12	46d	1	0.88mi
1848 Genesee St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,300	$1.22	25d	1	0.88mi
413 Sandusky St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$775	$0.86	25d	1	0.96mi
626 Walnut St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1088	$995	$0.91	46d	1	0.97mi
221 Licking St Unit 2 Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1048	$1,099	$1.05	25d	1	0.99mi
1305 Mott Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,000	$0.93	46d	1	1.00mi
1306 Mott Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.5	1282	$1,149	$0.90	46d	1	1.01mi
625 Riverside Dr Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,767	$2.05	16d	37	1.13mi
2621 Chestnut St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1444	$1,250	$0.87	46d	1	1.15mi
420 Everett St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$975	$0.97	25d	1	1.26mi
2932 N Ontario St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	25d	1	1.30mi
2453 Caledonia St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1179	$810	$0.69	16d	1	1.30mi
329 Mettler St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	908	$975	$1.07	16d	1	1.30mi
426 Beacon St Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	809	$882	$1.09	16d	10	1.32mi
223 Valleywood Dr Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1098	$1,099	$1.00	25d	1	1.32mi
225 Palmer St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	924	$895	$0.97	46d	1	1.33mi
3405 Beaumont Dr Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	855	$745	$0.87	16d	1	1.35mi
513 Adams St Toledo, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	1175	$1,424	$1.21	16d	11	1.39mi
414 Platt St Unit ST-3 Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,150	$0.77	25d	1	1.39mi
319 Dexter St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	990	$1,005	$1.02	46d	1	1.39mi
830 Homer Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1208	$895	$0.74	46d	1	1.40mi
227 Everett St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	914	$850	$0.93	46d	1	1.40mi
420 Platt St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	1499	$685	$0.46	23d	1	1.40mi
470 2nd St Unit 1 Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$799	$0.84	46d	1	1.41mi
3439 Jeannette Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1098	$1,095	$1.00	46d	1	1.42mi
152 Austin St Toledo, OH	4.0	1.5	1370	$1,150	$0.84	25d	1	1.44mi
653 Oswald St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	920	$800	$0.87	46d	1	1.47mi
3474 Maher St Toledo, OH	2.0	1.0	736	$1,125	$1.53	46d	1	1.48mi
710 E Lake St Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,000	$0.81	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 405-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $39,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $588 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$20/yr (+$2/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $8,994
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,158
• After-tax cash flow: $6,922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 9,594
• Household income: $20,734
• Rent vs Own: 80.5% rent · 19.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 693.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 34% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Current HPI: 111.6154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+129.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $39,000 NORIS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $8,000 NORIS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $10,000 NORIS
• 2006-08-14 Sold (MLS) $10,000 NORIS
• 2006-07-26 Price Changed $21,000 NORIS
• 2006-07-26 Listed $21,000 NORIS
• 2006-05-30 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2005-12-08 Listed $21,000 NORIS
• 2005-07-29 Sold (MLS) $8,000 NORIS
• 2004-12-17 Listed $11,700 NORIS
• 2004-12-15 Listing Removed — NORIS
• 2004-06-15 Listed $16,650 NORIS
• 1998-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1989-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.