9211 Burch Eagle Ct · Baytown, TX 77521

$205,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $167/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Idlewood Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: ACMI; Annual association fee of $2,000

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (entry level: first floor); Faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fence with backyard fencing; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14 x 14); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $205,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $277,730.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $206k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-510 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Walker El (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 829 students, 66% FRL); E F Green Junior School (1,020 students, 67% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,477 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.88%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,730
• List price: $205,990
• Delta: -13.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9227 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-10%)	1mo	$244,990	$187	81
9239 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,461 (0%)	0mo	$259,990	$178	78
9223 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,461 (0%)	1mo	$259,990	$178	77
9235 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-1%)	1mo	$255,990	$176	76
9307 Golden Dorado Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	3mo	$278,990	$174	75
9214 Speckled Trout Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	1mo	$271,990	$209	73
9203 Speckled Trout Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-11%)	3mo	$273,990	$210	71
9311 Long Fin Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	2mo	$280,990	$175	70
5402 Peacock Bass Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+10%)	3mo	$284,990	$178	70
5702 Goosander Land Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,635 (+12%)	2mo	$303,990	$186	57
9218 Burch Eagle Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	0mo	$268,990	$162	53
9219 Lowan Terrace Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+13%)	1mo	$268,990	$162	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-80,388
• Equity at exit: $41,410

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-123,286
• Equity at exit: $24,013

Cash invested: $77,764 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,456
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$347 /mo · $4,166/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,641

Max offer price $203,865

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,433
• Closing costs: $8,332
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6019 Standpiper Loop Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,265	$1.37	2d	1	0.70mi
8814 Bar Harbor Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,896	$1.13	24d	1	0.86mi
4730 Black Rock St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,073	$1.35	16d	1	0.86mi
9214 Burnet Fields Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,801	$1.23	43d	1	0.87mi
8110 Berkely Ct Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,946	$1.06	5d	1	0.90mi
8002 Sesame St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,100	$1.15	17d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $167 · $2,004/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $205,990 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 636-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,990 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,990 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,990 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   price $205,990 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $218,390 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $218,390 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $229,990 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $236,190 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $236,190 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $236,190 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,190 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $236,190 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,190 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $239,990 415-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    price $239,990 521-char remark
18. 2026-04-22
    price $250,840 415-char remark
19. 2026-04-20
    price $250,840 521-char remark
20. 2026-04-14
    price $243,690 415-char remark
21. 2026-04-14
    price $243,690 521-char remark
22. 2026-04-09
    listed $259,990 Active 521-char remark
23. 2026-04-08
    listed $259,990 Active 415-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,557
• − Property taxes: −$4,166
• − Insurance: −$1,389
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$8,079
• Taxable loss: −$11,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,661
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern amenities. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $205,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $218,390 HARMLS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $236,190 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $250,840 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $243,690 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $259,990 HARMLS