449 Dixwell Ave · New Haven, CT 06511

$359,925

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,114 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1920 5,227 sqft lot Est $430k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

spacious three-family property offering excellent potential for both investors and owner-occupants. Each unit features a functional layout with generous living space, ample natural light, and strong rental appeal. The property provides flexibility for steady income while maintaining long-term value. Ideal for an owner-occupant seeking to offset expenses or an investor looking to expand their portfolio. The building offers consistent demand and opportunity for future rental growth or value-add improvements. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, public transportation, and major highways, ensuring accessibility for tenants. A solid multi-family asset with space, functionality, and income

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 17 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive. Per door: $741/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $360k).
• Recommended offer: $355k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,140/mo this rent would consume 123% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 4999% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $101k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $354,526 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.46%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $429,732
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
445 Dixwell Ave	0.01mi	6/2.0	3,212 (+3%)	7mo	$340,000	$106	84
77 Gibbs St	0.05mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,916 (-6%)	0mo	$370,000	$127	82
98 Thompson St	0.21mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,042 (-2%)	4mo	$465,000	$153	78
64 Lilac St	0.45mi	6/3.0	3,075 (-1%)	4mo	$363,000	$118	73
152 Sheffield Ave	0.52mi	6/2.0	3,184 (+2%)	10mo	$410,000	$129	60
292 W Ivy St	0.40mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,883 (-7%)	6mo	$490,000	$170	58
128 Henry St	0.32mi	6/3.0	3,504 (+12%)	10mo	$470,000	$134	56
92 Shepard St	0.68mi	5/3.0 (-1)	3,017 (-3%)	9mo	$415,000	$138	50
19 Bassett St	0.58mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,820 (-9%)	8mo	$415,000	$147	46
335 Norton St	0.61mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,704 (-13%)	5mo	$460,000	$170	41
151 Read St	0.61mi	6/2.0	2,735 (-12%)	10mo	$310,000	$113	38
67 Read St	0.65mi	7/2.5 (+1)	2,672 (-14%)	8mo	$390,000	$146	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $80,929
• Equity at exit: $53,666

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $243,430
• Equity at exit: $31,120

Cash invested: $100,779 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06511

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,140 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$591 /mo · $7,091/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,289
• Net cashflow: $2,222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,327

Max offer price $359,925

Occupancy floor 59%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$6,141
Total (3 units)			$6,140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,981
• Closing costs: $10,798
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Admiral St New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	2157	$2,700	$1.25	19d	1	0.39mi
432 Norton Pkwy New Haven, CT	5.0	3.0	2493	$4,195	$1.68	43d	1	0.46mi
589 Winchester Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	5.0	1.0	3936	$2,650	$0.67	43d	1	0.48mi
355 Norton St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.5	2500	$3,300	$1.32	21d	1	0.56mi
347 Sherman Ave New Haven, CT	5.0	3.0	3153	$2,300	$0.73	43d	1	0.58mi
1519 Ella T Grasso Blvd Unit N/A New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	2750	$4,450	$1.62	23d	1	0.79mi
229 Dwight St New Haven, CT	6.0	2.0	2400	$4,995	$2.08	2d	1	0.92mi
131 Dwight St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	6.0	3.0	3097	$6,250	$2.02	23d	1	1.09mi
131 Dwight St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	6.0	3.0	3000	$6,250	$2.08	14d	1	1.09mi
54 Trumbull St Unit 54-1 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.5	2250	$6,695	$2.98	14d	1	1.14mi
395 Crown St New Haven, CT	6.0	3.5	2889	$7,195	$2.49	43d	1	1.14mi
30 Trumbull St New Haven, CT	5.0	4.0	2668	$5,000	$1.87	3d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-02-02
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-01-17
   listed $359,925 Active
3. 2026-01-08
   historical $359,925
4. 2018-12-13
   historical
5. 2018-09-17
   status Active
6. 2018-08-30
   historical
7. 2018-07-13
   listed $194,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,091 · $591/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,397 · $616/mo
• Expected delta: +$306/yr (+$25/mo · 4.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $73,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,161
• − Property taxes: −$7,091
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,894
• − Management: −$5,894
• − Depreciation: −$10,471
• Taxable income: $22,369
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,368
• After-tax cash flow: $21,298/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 54,730
• Household income: $59,969
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4999.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.05%
• Current HPI: 328.1353
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+85.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $359,925 Smart MLS
• 2026-01-08 Coming Soon $359,925 Smart MLS
• 2018-12-13 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2018-09-17 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2018-08-30 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2018-07-13 Listed $194,500 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $7,091 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.