1222B ARGYLL Cir · Leisure Village East, NJ 08701

$229,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 982 sqft · Condo public records · 414 Days on market

Built 1973 $234/sqft · 11% below area Est $257k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Newly Renovated Gem in Leisure Village East! Discover the charm and comfort of this updated single-family home, ideally located in the vibrant 55+ community of Leisure Village East, Lakewood. Just minutes from the shore, this spacious residence offers the perfect blend of relaxation, convenience, and active living. Property Highlights: - Fresh renovations throughout - kitchen, living room, bedrooms, porch - New top of the line stainless steel appliances, refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave, electric stove/oven, see updated photos uploaded - New Hardwood floors all through out. Freshly painted walls and ceiling. updated photos just uploaded. - Generously sized 2-bedroom layout - Bright living room with open-concept dining and kitchen area - Cozy enclosed front porch for year-round enjoyment - Attached garage plus an additional parking space Community Features: - Scenic gazebo by the lake - Outdoor swimming pool - Tennis courts and golf area - Welcoming clubhouse filled with amenities - Low HOA fees for worry-free living - Investor's Welcome! Whether you're seeking serene mornings by the lake or fun-filled afternoons on the courts, this home is your gateway to golden-year living at its finest.

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Listed 414 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Leisure Village East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#518 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Street Elem School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 534 students, 97% FRL); Lakewood Middle School (math 16% / reading 30%, grade F, #376 of 431 statewide, top 88%, 995 students, 94% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 14% / reading 37%, grade F, #321 of 399 statewide, top 81%, 1,423 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 21% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $230k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,401
• List price: $229,999
• Delta: -10.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-47,517
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-54,085
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,020/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$353
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,308

Max offer price $201,090

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-99	+0% $-164	+5% $-229	+10% $-294
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-247	+0% $-164	+5% $-81	+10% $2
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-105	base $-164	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	21d	1	0.34mi
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	5d	1	0.39mi
829A Balmoral Ct Unit 1001 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	26d	1	0.40mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	21d	1	1.11mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	24d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,999 Active 414 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,999 Active 411 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,999 Active 410 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,999 Active 409 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,999 Active 408 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,999 Active 406 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,999 Active 405 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,999 Active 402 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,999 Active 401 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,999 Active 400 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,999 Active 397 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,999 Active 396 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,999 Active 395 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,999 Active 394 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,999 Active 393 DOM
16. 2025-09-04
    price $229,999 1211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

    Newly Renovated Gem in Leisure Village East! Discover the charm and comfort of this updated single-family home, ideally located in the vibrant 55+ community of Leisure Village East, Lakewood. Just minutes from the shore, this spacious residence offers the perfect blend of relaxation, convenience, and active living. Property Highlights: - Fresh renovations throughout - kitchen, living room, bedrooms, porch - New top of the line stainless steel appliances, refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave, electric stove/oven, see updated photos uploaded - New Hardwood floors all through out. Freshly painted walls and ceiling. updated photos just uploaded. - Generously sized 2-bedroom layout - Bright living room with open-concept dining and kitchen area - Cozy enclosed front porch for year-round enjoyment - Attached garage plus an additional parking space Community Features: - Scenic gazebo by the lake - Outdoor swimming pool - Tennis courts and golf area - Welcoming clubhouse filled with amenities - Low HOA fees for worry-free living - Investor's Welcome! Whether you're seeking serene mornings by the lake or fun-filled afternoons on the courts, this home is your gateway to golden-year living at its finest.

17. 2025-07-07
    price $219,999 1211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

    Newly Renovated Gem in Leisure Village East! Discover the charm and comfort of this updated single-family home, ideally located in the vibrant 55+ community of Leisure Village East, Lakewood. Just minutes from the shore, this spacious residence offers the perfect blend of relaxation, convenience, and active living. Property Highlights: - Fresh renovations throughout - kitchen, living room, bedrooms, porch - New top of the line stainless steel appliances, refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave, electric stove/oven, see updated photos uploaded - New Hardwood floors all through out. Freshly painted walls and ceiling. updated photos just uploaded. - Generously sized 2-bedroom layout - Bright living room with open-concept dining and kitchen area - Cozy enclosed front porch for year-round enjoyment - Attached garage plus an additional parking space Community Features: - Scenic gazebo by the lake - Outdoor swimming pool - Tennis courts and golf area - Welcoming clubhouse filled with amenities - Low HOA fees for worry-free living - Investor's Welcome! Whether you're seeking serene mornings by the lake or fun-filled afternoons on the courts, this home is your gateway to golden-year living at its finest.

18. 2025-06-04
    historical 1211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

    Newly Renovated Gem in Leisure Village East! Discover the charm and comfort of this updated single-family home, ideally located in the vibrant 55+ community of Leisure Village East, Lakewood. Just minutes from the shore, this spacious residence offers the perfect blend of relaxation, convenience, and active living. Property Highlights: - Fresh renovations throughout - kitchen, living room, bedrooms, porch - New top of the line stainless steel appliances, refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave, electric stove/oven, see updated photos uploaded - New Hardwood floors all through out. Freshly painted walls and ceiling. updated photos just uploaded. - Generously sized 2-bedroom layout - Bright living room with open-concept dining and kitchen area - Cozy enclosed front porch for year-round enjoyment - Attached garage plus an additional parking space Community Features: - Scenic gazebo by the lake - Outdoor swimming pool - Tennis courts and golf area - Welcoming clubhouse filled with amenities - Low HOA fees for worry-free living - Investor's Welcome! Whether you're seeking serene mornings by the lake or fun-filled afternoons on the courts, this home is your gateway to golden-year living at its finest.

19. 2025-05-21
    status Back On Market 1211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

    Newly Renovated Gem in Leisure Village East! Discover the charm and comfort of this updated single-family home, ideally located in the vibrant 55+ community of Leisure Village East, Lakewood. Just minutes from the shore, this spacious residence offers the perfect blend of relaxation, convenience, and active living. Property Highlights: - Fresh renovations throughout - kitchen, living room, bedrooms, porch - New top of the line stainless steel appliances, refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave, electric stove/oven, see updated photos uploaded - New Hardwood floors all through out. Freshly painted walls and ceiling. updated photos just uploaded. - Generously sized 2-bedroom layout - Bright living room with open-concept dining and kitchen area - Cozy enclosed front porch for year-round enjoyment - Attached garage plus an additional parking space Community Features: - Scenic gazebo by the lake - Outdoor swimming pool - Tennis courts and golf area - Welcoming clubhouse filled with amenities - Low HOA fees for worry-free living - Investor's Welcome! Whether you're seeking serene mornings by the lake or fun-filled afternoons on the courts, this home is your gateway to golden-year living at its finest.

20. 2025-05-16
    status Under Contract 1211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

    Newly Renovated Gem in Leisure Village East! Discover the charm and comfort of this updated single-family home, ideally located in the vibrant 55+ community of Leisure Village East, Lakewood. Just minutes from the shore, this spacious residence offers the perfect blend of relaxation, convenience, and active living. Property Highlights: - Fresh renovations throughout - kitchen, living room, bedrooms, porch - New top of the line stainless steel appliances, refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave, electric stove/oven, see updated photos uploaded - New Hardwood floors all through out. Freshly painted walls and ceiling. updated photos just uploaded. - Generously sized 2-bedroom layout - Bright living room with open-concept dining and kitchen area - Cozy enclosed front porch for year-round enjoyment - Attached garage plus an additional parking space Community Features: - Scenic gazebo by the lake - Outdoor swimming pool - Tennis courts and golf area - Welcoming clubhouse filled with amenities - Low HOA fees for worry-free living - Investor's Welcome! Whether you're seeking serene mornings by the lake or fun-filled afternoons on the courts, this home is your gateway to golden-year living at its finest.

21. 2025-03-11
    listed $189,999 Active 1211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1211 chars)

    Newly Renovated Gem in Leisure Village East! Discover the charm and comfort of this updated single-family home, ideally located in the vibrant 55+ community of Leisure Village East, Lakewood. Just minutes from the shore, this spacious residence offers the perfect blend of relaxation, convenience, and active living. Property Highlights: - Fresh renovations throughout - kitchen, living room, bedrooms, porch - New top of the line stainless steel appliances, refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave, electric stove/oven, see updated photos uploaded - New Hardwood floors all through out. Freshly painted walls and ceiling. updated photos just uploaded. - Generously sized 2-bedroom layout - Bright living room with open-concept dining and kitchen area - Cozy enclosed front porch for year-round enjoyment - Attached garage plus an additional parking space Community Features: - Scenic gazebo by the lake - Outdoor swimming pool - Tennis courts and golf area - Welcoming clubhouse filled with amenities - Low HOA fees for worry-free living - Investor's Welcome! Whether you're seeking serene mornings by the lake or fun-filled afternoons on the courts, this home is your gateway to golden-year living at its finest.

22. 2005-05-10
    soldstatus $143,000
23. 1991-02-01
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,020 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,874 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,853/yr (+$154/mo · 91.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,020
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − HOA: −$4,236
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,393
• After-tax cash flow: $-571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village East

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #22166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village East, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5757.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+379.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $229,999 HCMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $219,999 HCMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listing Removed — HCMLS
• 2025-05-21 Relisted — HCMLS
• 2025-05-16 Pending — HCMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listed $189,999 HCMLS
• 2005-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records
• 1991-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,020 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.