2819 Colgate St · Lubbock, TX 79415

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1932 6,625 sqft lot $71/sqft · 53% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Opportunity for First-Time Home Buyers or Investors This affordably priced home is full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom, the layout includes two separate living areas, offering flexibility for entertaining, relaxing, or creating a home office space. A dedicated laundry room adds everyday convenience. Step outside to a spacious backyard complete with a large shed and a smaller shed, offering ample storage or workspace. A rear porch area offers the perfect spot to unwind or expand your outdoor living vision. While the home does require some TLC, the value and possibilities here make it an excellent opportunity to build equity and

Key facts

• 6,625 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1932

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story; Property listed as a fixer
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Storage shed(s); Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window cooling unit; No central heating listed
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($965 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cavazos Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 479 students, 97% FRL); Lubbock H S (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 1,839 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.29%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,077
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 52.82%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $474
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $16,792
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79415

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $965 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,686/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $715

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $219	+0% $198	+5% $176	+10% $155
Rent	-10% $121	-5% $159	+0% $198	+5% $236	+10% $274
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $217	base $198	+0.5pp $178	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2906 Cornell St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	920	$875	$0.95	14d	1	0.13mi
2709 Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,050	$0.92	21d	1	0.17mi
2613 Auburn St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	978	$875	$0.89	44d	1	0.30mi
3114 Baylor St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1411	$1,150	$0.82	44d	1	0.31mi
2805 1st Pl Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$895	$1.23	21d	1	0.37mi
2715 Fordham St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	0.40mi
2803 2nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	784	$800	$1.02	44d	1	0.43mi
3207 Amherst St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,200	$1.18	44d	1	0.43mi
2512 1st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$900	$0.86	14d	1	0.46mi
3315 Amherst St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$875	$0.92	21d	1	0.58mi
3307 Erskine St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,000	$0.89	21d	1	0.60mi
3119 Jarvis St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,025	$0.76	14d	1	0.74mi
701 N Indiana Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$850	$1.26	21d	1	0.80mi
3318 Itasca St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1068	$950	$0.89	14d	1	0.80mi
114 Avenue V Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	728	$750	$1.03	44d	1	0.86mi
3510 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,600	$1.11	14d	1	0.93mi
1415 N Knoxville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1291	$934	$0.72	14d	1	1.05mi
301 Avenue U Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$875	$1.40	14d	4	1.10mi
321 N Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,100	$0.79	44d	1	1.11mi
3701 Clovis Rd Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	833	$1,400	$1.68	14d	19	1.36mi
2409 13th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	44d	1	1.38mi
707 Avenue T Lubbock, TX	3.0–4.0	3.0–4.0	1559	$474	$0.30	44d	45	1.40mi
2315 13th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$995	$1.21	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    listed $75,000 Active 771-char remark
18. 2021-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,686 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,686 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,686
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$927
• − Management: −$927
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,287
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$309
• After-tax cash flow: $2,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,794
• Household income: $36,468
• Rent vs Own: 62.9% rent · 37.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1287.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 26% Two or more races 19% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.79%
• Current HPI: 165.7933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $75,000 LARMLS
• 2021-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,686 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.