1819 Sherwood Hill Dr · Lakeland, FL 33810

$151,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1987 4,861 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. BUYER'S FINANCING FELL THROUGH!! VERY spacious, 2 bedroom 2 bathroom home in this 55+ community of Foxwood Lake Estates where you OWN THE LAND! Over 1500 square feet of living space with an oversized Florida room, huge shed and the furniture conveys with the sale! The laminate flooring in newer, the metal roof over was installed in 2014 and the water heater is brand new!! This home affords the opportunity to make it your own with your design! Sunshine awaits and there are lots of things to do in this active community, come and tour the large clubhouse, game room, billiards room, sauna, fitness center, library, large heated pool, hot tub, pickle b

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Metal roof
• Huge shed

Tags

• OVERSIZED FLORIDA ROOM
• HUGE SHED
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• METAL ROOF
• WATER HEATER
• LARGE CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total living area about 1568 square feet; Lot is landscaped, level and paved
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee approximately $80.67 (annual $968); Association approval required; Association amenities: basketball court, clubhouse, fitness center, pickleball courts, pool, recreation facilities, sauna, shuffleboard court, spa/hot tub; Buyer approval required; Clubhouse and community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 1-car carport
• Security: Community security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; North-facing entry
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Florida room; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $151k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $151k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sleepy Hill Elementary School (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 739 students, 66% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $151k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.78%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,025
• Equity at exit: $22,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $43,329
• Equity at exit: $13,056

Cash invested: $42,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,848 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $476/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,233

Max offer price $151,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $571	-5% $528	+0% $485	+5% $443	+10% $400
Rent	-10% $339	-5% $412	+0% $485	+5% $558	+10% $631
Rate	-1.0pp $561	-0.5pp $524	base $485	+0.5pp $446	+1.0pp $406

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,750
• Closing costs: $4,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	25d	1	0.35mi
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	16d	1	0.63mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	25d	1	0.78mi
6120 Burnett St Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,910	$1.91	5d	21	0.82mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	23d	8	0.87mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	4d	24	0.95mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,450	$1.34	15d	2	0.99mi
1754 Altavista Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	2082	$2,450	$1.18	15d	1	1.08mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	25d	1	1.26mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	5d	1	1.29mi
4111 Solamor St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,400	$1.48	16d	1	1.30mi
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	4d	1	1.33mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	16d	1	1.34mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	15d	1	1.35mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	16d	1	1.38mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	20d	1	1.41mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	16d	1	1.44mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	25d	1	1.44mi
4048 Chelsea Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,320	$1.37	5d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Active
2. 2026-03-04
   status Pending
3. 2025-12-11
   listed $151,000 Active
4. 2014-01-31
   soldstatus $64,000
5. 1999-10-21
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,253 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$778/yr (+$65/mo · 163.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,458
• − Property taxes: −$476
• − Insurance: −$755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,774
• − Management: −$1,774
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$4,393
• Taxable income: $3,585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$860
• After-tax cash flow: $4,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+202.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Listed $151,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $476 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.