414 Palmer St · Kingston, TN 37763

$144,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2005 7,841 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Neat, clean, spotless! Convenient to everything including interstate & hospital, ready to move into.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Heart of kingston

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• HEART OF KINGSTON
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR INTERSTATE 40

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other construction materials; Crawl space foundation; Built area approximately 1,728 (source: tax records)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Other view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $144k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $906 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $144k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 2.8% in Kingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#205 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Roane County (town): math 30% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #64 of 139 in TN (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 229 units permitted in Roane County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $996 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roane County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $144k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,040 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.95%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,496
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
506 Patton Ferry Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-9%)	6mo	$285,000	$182	68
531 Greenwood St	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (-14%)	1mo	$236,000	$158	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $34,368
• Equity at exit: $21,471

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $104,206
• Equity at exit: $12,450

Cash invested: $40,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37763

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$755
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $523/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $906

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,171

Max offer price $144,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $988	-5% $947	+0% $906	+5% $865	+10% $825
Rent	-10% $723	-5% $815	+0% $906	+5% $998	+10% $1,089
Rate	-1.0pp $979	-0.5pp $943	base $906	+0.5pp $869	+1.0pp $831

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,000
• Closing costs: $4,320
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 W Cumberland St Kingston, TN	2.0	1.0	1094	$2,400	$2.19	44d	1	0.23mi
203 W Cumberland St Kingston, TN	2.0	1.0	1094	$2,400	$2.19	21d	1	0.23mi
212 Meadowview Dr Kingston, TN	3.0	1.0	1525	$1,720	$1.13	24d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $144,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
17. 2026-04-01
    price $150,000
18. 2026-03-24
    price $175,000
19. 2026-03-17
    listed $190,000 Active
20. 2015-01-27
    soldstatus $68,000
21. 2015-01-20
    soldstatus $68,000 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Neat, clean, spotless! Convenient to everything including interstate & hospital, ready to move into.

22. 2014-12-26
    listed $68,000 104-char remark

    Show marketing remark (104 chars)

    Neat, clean, spotless! Convenient to everything including interstate & hospital, ready to move into.

23. 2007-06-05
    listed $65,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $523 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,022 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$499/yr (+$42/mo · 95.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 100% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,066
• − Property taxes: −$523
• − Insurance: −$1,518
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,225
• − Management: −$2,225
• − Depreciation: −$4,189
• Taxable income: $9,071
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,177
• After-tax cash flow: $8,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roane County
• NCES district ID: 4703590
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,611
• Composite: 25.0/100
• National rank: #7557
• State rank: #64 of 139 in TN

Livability — Kingston

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #205
• US rank: #16055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingston, TN
• Population (ZIP): 16,394

Population outlook (Roane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,652 people
• By 2030: 47,648 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 43,306 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 39,294 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 32,318 · -34.9%
• By 2100: 27,137 · -45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roane

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.5) · D 22.1% · R 76.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -54.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.5 2020: R+50.9 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+41.3 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.77%
• Current HPI: 235.9959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+129.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $150,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $175,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $190,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2015-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-20 Sold (MLS) $68,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2014-12-26 Listed $68,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2007-06-05 Listed $65,500 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $523 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.