3011 Union Church Rd · Smith Island, MD 21866

$50,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1915 8,625 sqft lot $41/sqft · 36% below area Est $78k · 36% under ↓ 60% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover a rare opportunity to own a charming, four bedroom, one bath home on historic Smith Island, Maryland in the heart of the Chesapeake Bay. Nestled on a quiet street in the quaint village of Tylerton, this furnished home is a true slice of island life, brimming with close-knit community spirit. The vinyl siding , windows and roof were updated within the last 10 - 15 years. The island has recently acquired 5G Internet, and a new waste water treatment plant, enhancing modern convenience. Buyer to note, the home has been unoccupied for several years and is being sold as is with no seller representations. Embrace the potential of this unique property!

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Furnished home
• Village of tylerton

Tags

• HISTORIC SMITH ISLAND
• QUIET STREET
• VILLAGE OF TYLERTON
• FURNISHED HOME
• UPDATED VINYL SIDING
• UPDATED WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#391 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.28%
• DSCR: 3.50
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,820
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -35.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3029 Union Church	0.04mi	4/1.0	1,344 (+9%)	18mo	$75,000	$56	68
3035 Union Church Rd	0.05mi	4/1.0	1,408 (+14%)	8mo	$75,000	$53	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $20,956
• Equity at exit: $22,482

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $54,454
• Equity at exit: $34,648

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21866

• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,262 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $688/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $971

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $50,000 Pending 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $50,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $50,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $50,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    price $50,000 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Discover a rare opportunity to own a charming, four bedroom, one bath home on historic Smith Island, Maryland in the heart of the Chesapeake Bay. Nestled on a quiet street in the quaint village of Tylerton, this furnished home is a true slice of island life, brimming with close-knit community spirit. The vinyl siding , windows and roof were updated within the last 10 - 15 years. The island has recently acquired 5G Internet, and a new waste water treatment plant, enhancing modern convenience. Buyer to note, the home has been unoccupied for several years and is being sold as is with no seller representations. Embrace the potential of this unique property!

11. 2026-03-12
    listed $60,000 Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Discover a rare opportunity to own a charming, four bedroom, one bath home on historic Smith Island, Maryland in the heart of the Chesapeake Bay. Nestled on a quiet street in the quaint village of Tylerton, this furnished home is a true slice of island life, brimming with close-knit community spirit. The vinyl siding , windows and roof were updated within the last 10 - 15 years. The island has recently acquired 5G Internet, and a new waste water treatment plant, enhancing modern convenience. Buyer to note, the home has been unoccupied for several years and is being sold as is with no seller representations. Embrace the potential of this unique property!

12. 2025-06-15
    historical
13. 2025-05-15
    listed $80,000 Active
14. 2022-12-01
    soldstatus $50,000
15. 2022-11-23
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
16. 2022-10-30
    status Pending
17. 2022-09-21
    listed $57,900 Active
18. 2016-09-02
    historical
19. 2015-07-01
    listed $100,000
20. 2014-09-02
    historical
21. 2014-05-01
    listed $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $688 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $688 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$688
• − Insurance: −$5,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $2,410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$578
• After-tax cash flow: $2,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Smith Island

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #391
• US rank: #21397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smith Island, MD
• City population: 340
• Population (ZIP): 106

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 17% Scotch-Irish 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-60.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-23 Sold (MLS) $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-21 Listed $57,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-09-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-07-01 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-09-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-05-01 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $688 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.