3751 Martha Ln · Millbrook, AL 36054

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $251k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT FOR 1ST TIME HOME BUYER OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY! 1ST TIME BUYERS COULD POSSIBLY GET A $8000 TAX CREDIT! PRICED TO SELL! UPDATED AND SHOWS GREAT! EXTRA CLEAN! KITCHEN WITH SMOOTH SURFACE STOVE, CERAMIC TILE & EATING AREA! SECURITY SYSTEM! LARGE FENCED BACKYARD WITH MATURE TREES, LARGE SCREENED PORCH, DETACHED STORAGE & VERY NICE WIRED WORKSHOP! DETACHED DOUBLE CARPORT! COULD BE CHEAPER THAN RENT! EXCELLENT LOCATION- JUST MINS. TO I-65, MONTGOMERY & SCHOOLS! ALSO CONVENIENT TO CITY GOLF COURSE, LANARK NATURE CENTER & VILLAGE GREEN PARK & BALLPARKS!

Key facts

• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.4% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#110 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask is 72% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $155k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,474 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.00%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,978
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3740 Martha Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+7%)	12mo	$125,000	$92	72
3690 Grandview Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,142 (-10%)	9mo	$85,551	$75	62
3750 Henderson Pl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-2%)	2mo	$190,000	$152	58
64 Trevor Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+15%)	1mo	$289,900	$198	52
123 Trevor Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+15%)	2mo	$291,199	$199	46
242 Kohn Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+15%)	9mo	$288,900	$198	44
215 Laila Way	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+15%)	8mo	$291,419	$199	44
3715 Henderson Pl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-6%)	17mo	$159,000	$132	41
3740 Henderson Pl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-6%)	16mo	$180,000	$150	41
29 Ann James Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+15%)	7mo	$291,199	$199	35
189 Laila Way	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+15%)	11mo	$286,499	$196	35
162 Laila Way	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+15%)	12mo	$287,419	$197	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,282
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $54,801
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36054

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $415/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,154

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3321 Branch St Millbrook, AL	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	21d	1	0.87mi
33 Jamestown Loop Millbrook, AL	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,375	$1.10	13d	1	1.16mi
63 Lilly Pad Cir Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1521	$1,700	$1.12	13d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2009-05-14
   soldstatus $87,900 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   GREAT FOR 1ST TIME HOME BUYER OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY! 1ST TIME BUYERS COULD POSSIBLY GET A $8000 TAX CREDIT! PRICED TO SELL! UPDATED AND SHOWS GREAT! EXTRA CLEAN! KITCHEN WITH SMOOTH SURFACE STOVE, CERAMIC TILE & EATING AREA! SECURITY SYSTEM! LARGE FENCED BACKYARD WITH MATURE TREES, LARGE SCREENED PORCH, DETACHED STORAGE & VERY NICE WIRED WORKSHOP! DETACHED DOUBLE CARPORT! COULD BE CHEAPER THAN RENT! EXCELLENT LOCATION- JUST MINS. TO I-65, MONTGOMERY & SCHOOLS! ALSO CONVENIENT TO CITY GOLF COURSE, LANARK NATURE CENTER & VILLAGE GREEN PARK & BALLPARKS!

2. 2009-03-30
   listed $89,900 590-char remark

   Show marketing remark (590 chars)

   GREAT FOR 1ST TIME HOME BUYER OR INVESTMENT PROPERTY! 1ST TIME BUYERS COULD POSSIBLY GET A $8000 TAX CREDIT! PRICED TO SELL! UPDATED AND SHOWS GREAT! EXTRA CLEAN! KITCHEN WITH SMOOTH SURFACE STOVE, CERAMIC TILE & EATING AREA! SECURITY SYSTEM! LARGE FENCED BACKYARD WITH MATURE TREES, LARGE SCREENED PORCH, DETACHED STORAGE & VERY NICE WIRED WORKSHOP! DETACHED DOUBLE CARPORT! COULD BE CHEAPER THAN RENT! EXCELLENT LOCATION- JUST MINS. TO I-65, MONTGOMERY & SCHOOLS! ALSO CONVENIENT TO CITY GOLF COURSE, LANARK NATURE CENTER & VILLAGE GREEN PARK & BALLPARKS!

3. 2001-09-13
   soldstatus $60,500
4. 2001-09-11
   soldstatus $60,500 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Attractive well-kept 3BR/1BA brick home. Large eat-in kitchen, laundry room, cen heat & air. Nice, quiet neighborhood close to I-65, large fully fenced back yard with mature trees. Call for appt. Has small inside dog not known to bite, but appt needed to secure dog before showing. Vinyl siding on eaves.

5. 2000-12-05
   listed $64,900 311-char remark

   Show marketing remark (311 chars)

   Attractive well-kept 3BR/1BA brick home. Large eat-in kitchen, laundry room, cen heat & air. Nice, quiet neighborhood close to I-65, large fully fenced back yard with mature trees. Call for appt. Has small inside dog not known to bite, but appt needed to secure dog before showing. Vinyl siding on eaves.

6. 1996-01-10
   listed $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $415 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $636 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 53.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$415
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $484
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$116
• After-tax cash flow: $2,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmore County
• NCES district ID: 0101290
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,898
• Composite: 35.27/100
• National rank: #4974
• State rank: #21 of 129 in AL

Livability — Millbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #12087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millbrook, AL
• County: Elmore County · 36,842 people
• City population: 14,600
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 14,600
• Household income: $68,438
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 201.0

Population outlook (Elmore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,154 people
• By 2030: 86,667 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 89,014 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 90,331 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 96,096 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 95,290 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Elmore

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+48.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.96%
• Current HPI: 151.6671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+51.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2009-05-14 Sold (MLS) $87,900 MAAR
• 2009-03-30 Listed $89,900 MAAR
• 2001-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 2001-09-11 Sold (MLS) $60,500 MAAR
• 2000-12-05 Listed $64,900 MAAR
• 1996-01-10 Listed $58,000 MAAR

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $415 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.