22440 Armes Rd · Saucier, MS 39574

$160,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2006 4.50 ac lot $62/sqft · 18% below area Est $195k · 18% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home nestled on 4.5 beautiful acres in the peaceful community of Saucier. Offering plenty of room both inside and out, this property is full of potential and makes an excellent investment opportunity, rental property, or private homestead. The home features a functional layout with generous living space, a large kitchen area, and comfortable bedrooms. Outside, the expansive acreage provides endless possibilities, whether you're looking to add additional structures, enjoy outdoor recreation, or simply appreciate the privacy and country setting. Conveniently located while still offering a quiet, rural atmosphere, this property combines space,

Key facts

• Expansive acreage
• Outdoor recreation
• Large kitchen area

Tags

• 4.5 ACRES
• LARGE KITCHEN AREA
• EXPANSIVE ACREAGE
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• COUNTRY SETTING
• QUIET RURAL ATMOSPHERE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 4.5 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Shared well / well water; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home (manufactured house); One story; Entry on one level
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Fixer condition; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Cleared lot with few trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Wood-burning fireplace; Bathtub fireplace feature

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.4% in Saucier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#91 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.84%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,900
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -17.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,175
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $37,952
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39574

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $973/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,249

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $533	-5% $487	+0% $442	+5% $397	+10% $351
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $371	+0% $442	+5% $513	+10% $585
Rate	-1.0pp $523	-0.5pp $483	base $442	+0.5pp $400	+1.0pp $358

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $170,000 Active 1486-char remark
16. 2016-05-05
    soldstatus
17. 2015-11-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $973 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$291/yr (+$24/mo · 29.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$973
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,840
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$682
• After-tax cash flow: $4,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Saucier

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #11386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,830

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.24%
• Current HPI: 206.218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $160,000 MLSU
• 2026-05-09 Listed $170,000 MLSU
• 2016-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $973 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.