3512 Ethel Ave · Waco, TX 76707

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 926 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1946 8,233 sqft lot $38/sqft · 78% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House is a tear down, no interior access. Flat, level lot perfect for new construction, walking distance to coffee shops and other attractions.

Key facts

• Flat level lot
• 8,233 sq ft lot
• Built 1946

Tags

• FLAT LEVEL LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $743 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.8% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.94%
• DSCR: 5.05
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,500
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -78.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3512 Ethel Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	926 (0%)	0mo	$35,000	$38	100
3601 Ethel Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,001 (+8%)	1mo	$169,000	$169	77
3012 Colonial Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0	954 (+3%)	2mo	$145,000	$152	72
3417 Ethel Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0	800 (-14%)	4mo	$175,000	$219	70
3809 Frederick Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,017 (+10%)	3mo	$99,000	$97	64
916 N 31st St	0.61mi	2/1.0	980 (+6%)	0mo	$115,000	$117	62
3325 Maple Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,028 (+11%)	3mo	$199,900	$194	57
3516 Pine Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	957 (+3%)	1mo	$170,000	$178	54
3609 Windsor Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+14%)	1mo	$95,000	$90	47
820 N 34th St	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,048 (+13%)	1mo	$156,000	$149	47
913 N 32nd St	0.60mi	2/1.0	792 (-14%)	1mo	$152,500	$193	47
2809 Gorman Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+12%)	1mo	$64,900	$62	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $39,357
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.80×
• Total profit: $86,202
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76707

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3701 Parkwood St Unit 3703 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	13d	1	0.20mi
1309 Sunset St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1102	$1,295	$1.18	21d	1	0.27mi
3809 Homan Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,100	$1.31	43d	1	0.28mi
3116 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	13d	1	0.31mi
3121 Colonial Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,600	$1.47	21d	1	0.33mi
3121 Colonial Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,600	$1.47	43d	1	0.33mi
3400 W Brookview Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	865	$1,209	$1.40	13d	5	0.39mi
3916 Homan Ave Unit 3916 Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$995	$1.37	43d	1	0.40mi
3916 Homan Ave Unit 3918 Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	21d	1	0.40mi
3916 Homan Ave Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,025	$1.46	21d	1	0.40mi
1300 N 43rd St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1109	$860	$0.78	21d	1	0.42mi
4010 Homan Ave Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	670	$800	$1.19	21d	1	0.48mi
4019 Huaco Ln Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,095	$1.25	21d	1	0.48mi
3625 Maple Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	43d	1	0.53mi
3621 Gorman Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	1086	$1,950	$1.80	13d	1	0.54mi
3532 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,475	$1.34	13d	1	0.61mi
2724 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,100	$0.98	21d	1	0.61mi
2705 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,599	$1.56	43d	1	0.66mi
2632 Colonial Ave Unit B Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,050	$1.17	21d	1	0.71mi
3901 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	760	$995	$1.31	43d	1	0.73mi
2332 Melissa Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$1,395	$1.41	13d	1	0.78mi
2217 N 41st St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	13d	1	0.86mi
508 N 38th St Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	711	$795	$1.12	21d	1	0.87mi
508 N 38th St Unit 514-C Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	711	$750	$1.05	21d	1	0.87mi
2714 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	979	$1,300	$1.33	43d	1	0.87mi
516 N 31st St Unit 1 Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	43d	1	0.90mi
516 N 31st St Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	21d	1	0.90mi
3638 W Waco Dr Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	731	$902	$1.23	13d	8	0.93mi
2621 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1108	$1,175	$1.06	21d	1	0.96mi
701 N New Rd Unit 201 Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$795	$1.22	43d	1	0.97mi
701 N New Rd Unit 101 Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	598	$995	$1.66	21d	1	0.97mi
4320 Guthrie Cir Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,700	$1.59	21d	1	0.98mi
2601 Fort Ave Unit 4 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$990	$0.99	43d	1	1.02mi
2225 Trice Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	803	$1,300	$1.62	43d	1	1.05mi
2225 Trice Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	803	$1,300	$1.62	13d	1	1.05mi
2812 W Waco Dr Unit 15 Waco, TX	1.0	1.0	580	$950	$1.64	21d	1	1.06mi
2224 Cumberland Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	768	$1,075	$1.40	43d	1	1.11mi
736 Grice St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	43d	1	1.14mi
2225 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,100	$1.31	43d	1	1.17mi
2712 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	21d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $35,000 Pending 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $35,000 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $35,000 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $35,000 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $35,000 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $35,000 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $35,000 Active 232 DOM
11. 2026-02-16
    price $35,000 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    House is a tear down, no interior access. Flat, level lot perfect for new construction, walking distance to coffee shops and other attractions.

12. 2026-01-16
    price $39,000 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    House is a tear down, no interior access. Flat, level lot perfect for new construction, walking distance to coffee shops and other attractions.

13. 2025-10-10
    listed $40,000 Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    House is a tear down, no interior access. Flat, level lot perfect for new construction, walking distance to coffee shops and other attractions.

14. 2025-10-07
    soldstatus
15. 1999-06-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,196
• − Management: −$1,196
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $8,883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,132
• After-tax cash flow: $6,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,879
• Household income: $40,443
• Rent vs Own: 41.1% rent · 58.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 704.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Black 32% Two or more races 26% White 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 34% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.95%
• Current HPI: 239.639
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $35,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $39,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,001 · -10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.