1630 Teagan Ln · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$315,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,880 sqft · Land · 77 Days on market

Built 2025 5,645 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to this beautifully upgraded, lightly lived-in home that truly shows better than new construction. Why wait for a build when this move-in-ready home already has everything done for you? This spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home features an open-concept layout with the main entertaining areas conveniently located downstairs and all bedrooms upstairs for added privacy and comfort. The cozy upstairs family room is perfect as a sitting area, reading nook, or secondary lounge space, offering flexibility for your lifestyle. The sellers have thoughtfully invested in high-end upgrades, including a brick-paver patio ideal for outdoor entertaining, a bran

Key facts

• Security system
• Community pool
• New fence

Tags

• COVERED BRICK-PAVER PATIO
• NEW FENCE
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY
• SECURITY SYSTEM
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-319 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bartow Elementary Academy (math 55% / reading 72%, grade B, #564 of 2,144 statewide, top 27%, 518 students, 31% FRL); Mclaughlin Academy of Excellence (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 542 students, 68% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,994 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.34%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-73,860
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-100,469
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,260 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,665/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,664

Max offer price $258,606

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-141	-5% $-230	+0% $-319	+5% $-408	+10% $-498
Rent	-10% $-498	-5% $-408	+0% $-319	+5% $-230	+10% $-141
Rate	-1.0pp $-161	-0.5pp $-239	base $-319	+0.5pp $-401	+1.0pp $-484

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2102 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,100	$1.15	16d	1	0.07mi
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1801	$2,030	$1.13	5d	1	0.11mi
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,030	$1.11	25d	1	0.11mi
1708 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,250	$1.45	25d	1	0.14mi
1993 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,998	$1.09	25d	1	0.19mi
4019 Penelope Ave Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$1,950	$1.08	16d	1	0.22mi
368 Kayden Cv Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,290	$1.08	25d	1	0.32mi
521 Reggie Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2093	$2,450	$1.17	5d	1	0.38mi
1116 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2174	$1,975	$0.91	25d	1	0.57mi
1116 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2174	$1,975	$0.91	21d	1	0.57mi
693 Reggie Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1933	$2,300	$1.19	25d	1	0.63mi
1417 Austin St Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,290	$1.22	13d	1	0.68mi
1172 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1509	$2,200	$1.46	12d	1	0.68mi
748 Reggie Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1933	$2,600	$1.35	25d	1	0.72mi
1498 Austin St Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,000	$1.03	25d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $315,000
3. 2026-02-10
   price $335,000
4. 2026-02-01
   price $365,000
5. 2026-01-16
   listed $389,000 Active
6. 2024-10-15
   soldstatus $939,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,665 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,665 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$3,665
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,170
• − Management: −$2,170
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$9,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-66.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $389,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $939,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,665 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.