51 Hay Press Rd · Copake Lake, NY 12521

$519,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,758 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1970 8.50 ac lot Est $485k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a quiet dead-end road, this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect balance of space, privacy, and modern comfort on 8.5 serene acres just 20 minutes south of Hudson. Thoughtfully renovated from top to bottom, the home features a brand new roof, siding, and septic system, along with a newly added split-unit heating and cooling system for year-round comfort. Inside, the light-filled interior has been tastefully updated and includes two fireplaces, a separate office space, a bright sunroom, and a finished basement that adds flexible living or recreation space. Outdoor living truly shines here. Enjoy summer days by the in-ground pool, unwind beside your pri

Key facts

• Updated siding
• Updated roof
• Bright sunroom

Tags

• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED SIDING
• UPDATED SEPTIC SYSTEM
• TWO FIREPLACES
• SEPARATE OFFICE SPACE
• BRIGHT SUNROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $519k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $978 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $519k).
• Recommended offer: $488k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $145k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($488k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $282k; list at $519k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $487,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.07%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $485,208
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Hay Press Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,758 (0%)	1mo	$485,000	$276	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $344,944
• Equity at exit: $467,556

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.65×
• Total profit: $966,853
• Equity at exit: $1,008,303

Cash invested: $145,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12521

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax from tax record: −$528 /mo · $6,331/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,181
• Net cashflow: $978

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,387

Max offer price $519,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,272	-5% $1,125	+0% $978	+5% $831	+10% $684
Rent	-10% $533	-5% $756	+0% $978	+5% $1,200	+10% $1,422
Rate	-1.0pp $1,239	-0.5pp $1,110	base $978	+0.5pp $843	+1.0pp $706

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,750
• Closing costs: $15,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-05
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-17
   price $519,000
4. 2026-02-25
   price $549,000
5. 2026-01-17
   listed $569,000 Active
6. 2020-12-30
   soldstatus $282,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,331 · $528/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,551 · $629/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,220/yr (+$102/mo · 19.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,072
• − Property taxes: −$6,331
• − Insurance: −$2,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,399
• − Management: −$5,399
• − Depreciation: −$15,098
• Taxable income: $3,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$863
• After-tax cash flow: $10,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson City School District
• NCES district ID: 3614940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,663
• Composite: 36.03/100
• National rank: #4779
• State rank: #494 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copake Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #841
• US rank: #16329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,874

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.58%
• Current HPI: 441.0272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+84.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-05 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $519,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $549,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $569,000 HVCRMLS
• 2020-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $282,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,331 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.